JLG - Johns Lyng Group

[finicky]

rcw1 still a ... watch ... en ...

Upcoming disaster work for insurance companies in L.A California?

 

[finicky]

Heads up that none other than Greg Canavan of fat tail investment advisory tipped JLG and discussed it 13/12/24 @ $3.59
Currently it's at $3.72, having a lift today.
I was very tempted as I have liked the company for a while and see it as defensive but didn't buy - conserving cash.

Not Held

DAILY

 

[finicky]

Narrow escape for me.
"Defensive", lol.
Greg Canavan's update today on fat tail investment advisory:

"This week we’ve had a few of our own landmines to deal with. Perenti [ASXRN] reported half-yearly results on Monday, which saw its share price sink 15%.

Given that management was at pains to reiterate full-year guidance, I don’t think things are as bad as the initial share price reaction suggests.

Then, on Tuesday, Johns Lyng Group [ASX:JLG] share price sank more than 20%. Challenging conditions saw the group reduce full-year guidance, which the market didn’t like at all.

I’ll review the earnings reports in detail and listen to the earnings calls before deciding whether to add to, or cut, the position.

For now, PRN remains a hold and JLG moves to a hold."

Not Held

DAILY

 

[divs4ever]

"This week we’ve had a few of our own landmines to deal with. Perenti [ASXRN] reported half-yearly results on Monday, which saw its share price sink 15%.

but lifted more than 8.5% ( 10 cents a share ) today

and i was lucky enough to grab a few when my other targets walked away from me yesterday

 

[divs4ever]

Narrow escape for me.
"Defensive", lol.
Greg Canavan's update today on fat tail investment advisory:

"This week we’ve had a few of our own landmines to deal with. Perenti [ASXRN] reported half-yearly results on Monday, which saw its share price sink 15%.

Given that management was at pains to reiterate full-year guidance, I don’t think things are as bad as the initial share price reaction suggests.

Then, on Tuesday, Johns Lyng Group [ASX:JLG] share price sank more than 20%. Challenging conditions saw the group reduce full-year guidance, which the market didn’t like at all.

I’ll review the earnings reports in detail and listen to the earnings calls before deciding whether to add to, or cut, the position.

For now, PRN remains a hold and JLG moves to a hold."

Not Held

DAILY
View attachment 194093

JLG ?

i have had some interactions with them and remain luke-warm ( at least they didn't make my AVOID list )

i don't hold JLG

 

[Miner]

Narrow escape for me.
"Defensive", lol.
Greg Canavan's update today on fat tail investment advisory:

"This week we’ve had a few of our own landmines to deal with. Perenti [ASXRN] reported half-yearly results on Monday, which saw its share price sink 15%.

Given that management was at pains to reiterate full-year guidance, I don’t think things are as bad as the initial share price reaction suggests.

Then, on Tuesday, Johns Lyng Group [ASX:JLG] share price sank more than 20%. Challenging conditions saw the group reduce full-year guidance, which the market didn’t like at all.

I’ll review the earnings reports in detail and listen to the earnings calls before deciding whether to add to, or cut, the position.

For now, PRN remains a hold and JLG moves to a hold."

Not Held

DAILY
View attachment 194093

The jokers at Fat Tail and many others do not stand up to their earlier calls when a stock sinks and then take time to get a blood bath to happen.
I have now cancelled all newsletter subscriptions like Fat Tail and a few others and am learning from fellow posters like ASF, reading more , and relying on myself. I always felt that both JLG and PRN have good core values. So when the market overreacted, I traded JLG for a day without incurring any money, with a net gain of a few hundred. It's better than losing a few hundred and spending stressful full days because experts said buy or sell.

 

[finicky]

Market Matters afternoon report:

Johns Lyng Group (JLG) +7.8% rallied on a news article in the AFR’s Street Talk column released at 3.07pm that claimed both KKR and EQT both made informal offers for JLG, but nothing was formalised. The share price has halved since then on what the company say are short term issues. Surely it now looks more attractive for both.

 

[peter2]

I was favourably involved with JLG when they listed and prices were going up, however they've had far too many earnings misses the past three years for me. Six bombs past three years.

 

[divs4ever]

Market Matters afternoon report:

Johns Lyng Group (JLG) +7.8% rallied on a news article in the AFR’s Street Talk column released at 3.07pm that claimed both KKR and EQT both made informal offers for JLG, but nothing was formalised. The share price has halved since then on what the company say are short term issues. Surely it now looks more attractive for both.

EQT ( the ASX listed company ) ?? ( i hold )

or the US entity ?

i would be VERY surprised if it was the Australian wealth manager

but back to JLG , that US exposure could easily be a double-edged sword ,

would there be a revised ( down ) offer or two coming

i do not hold JLG

 

[finicky]

@divs4ever
EQT

EQT Group — A Global Investment Organization

EQT is an investment organization committed to creating value by finding good companies and helping them become the most promising builders of tomorrow.

eqtgroup.com

EQT is an investment organization committed to creating value by finding good companies and helping them become the most promising builders of tomorrow

 

[Dona Ferentes]

There are seven ASX 200 shares that will be leaving the benchmark index when it rebalances on 24 March..

....being ejected from the ASX 200 is Johns Lyng Group Limited (ASX: JLG). This insurance building and restoration services company was sold off last month after disappointing with its half year results. Its shares are down 57% over the past 12 months, reducing its market capitalisation to under $800m.

any stabilising / consolidation nipped in the budget by this news

 

[finicky]

Fwiw, Motley Fool yesterday tipped JLG as a "Buy more"
Their return against the All Ords benchmark for their previous 2023 JLG recommendation is a negative -83%

Not Held
Not Buying

Excerpt:

"Johns Lyng has a history of disciplined strategic acquisitions that have increased its market share and overall capabilities and service capabilities to support growth. We also like management with skin in the game and at the time of writing CEO, Scott Didier, owns approximately 18% of the company’s shares.

As outlined above, Johns Lyng’s business mix can lead to profitability swings in any given period. This is evidenced by the most recent half-yearly results (released February 2025), which saw revenues from its servicing businesses increase by 9% but catastrophe insurance revenues falling by 67.7%, leading to net profit 33% lower compared to the same period in FY2024. Management also trimmed back earnings guidance for the rest of FY2025. This saw the share price fall.

However, these disappointing short-term results mask the more bullish trend and potential, with the company increasing contracts in the US and increasing its strategic acquisitions, including concluding an 87.5% stake in Queensland insurance building services company, Keystone Group.

Johns Lyng is not for the investor seeking regular straight line growth in revenues and earnings, as there is no doubt earnings in any given year can be lumpy. However, we believe the longer-term investor who is prepared to weather occasional short-term volatility will be rewarded by the unlocking of the longer-term secular value in the insurance, restoration, and emergency businesses. In summary and as outlined, this is a business that has defensive qualities via steady income streams from its business-as-usual operations, coupled with secular growth that may not be delivered in a smooth manner, but which we believe will increase significantly over time as demand for its services grow. This is evidenced by a clear upward trend in sales and earnings. And, at the time of writing, the company is also currently offering a fully-franked dividend of approximately 3%. From a balance sheet perspective bank debt / cash is a reasonable 2.8 times, supported by a cash balance of $63 million (per the latest half-year financials)."

 

[galumay]

However, we believe the longer-term investor who is prepared to weather occasional short-term volatility will be rewarded by the unlocking of the longer-term secular value in the insurance, restoration, and emergency businesses.

Wen?

Motley Fools is the perfect name for these clowns. When I first started investing and was travelling overseas I got a gig writing for them, I stopped doing it because I was terrified someone would take my crappy analysis as advice and lose precious capital.

 

[finicky]

.. I was 'terrified' someone would take my analysis as advice ..

Hyperbole. Better would be 'concerned'

 

[galumay]

Hyperbole. Better would be 'concerned'

Thank you for your concern.

 

[ShareSuccess]

Am i Missing something with JLG??.....I jumped on it when the share price collapsed.

Growth....EPS 22%....REV 26%.....C/FLOW 5%.....CASH 24%.....NTA 16%.....B/VALUE.....43%.....DIV 28%

DEBT 17%......What am i Missing!....Any Thoughts?

 

[divs4ever]

Am i Missing something with JLG??.....I jumped on it when the share price collapsed.

Growth....EPS 22%....REV 26%.....C/FLOW 5%.....CASH 24%.....NTA 16%.....B/VALUE.....43%.....DIV 28%

DEBT 17%......What am i Missing!....Any Thoughts?

go through the basics .. what they do and where they do it , and how well have they done it

sure they do a lot of contract/sub-contract work for the insurers ( a snake's nest in itself )

but the market tries to predict the future

 

[finicky]

FY25 Guidance given at the HY25 results was a downgrade although it doesn't appear to me to be a big one.
EBITDA guidance $126m vs actual $129m for FY24. Just EBITDA guidance though so that leaves open the possibility for impairments?

Regarding the long term monthly chart which I just checked out, it doesn't look too bad a time for a bottom grazer to risk at least a part position? That's not advice obviously for a trader - I'm looking at it from the viewpoint of a mainly buy and hold investor who occasionally trades to reduce risk. You've jogged my memory and I'm considering JLG, although I'm very slow to buy lately. Very high 'capitulatory' volume in Feb/Mar attended H1 results, then an anchor was thrown out with a quite high volume hammer candle in March. Caveat though is a similar action happened from August 2024 which eventually failed.

MONTHLY All Data

The acquisitions in FY22* increased the shares on issue but with a big jump in book value (equity per share) and since then the return on that higher equity (ROE) has been much more ordinary. It does look pretty reasonable value to me though, at this heavily reduced price compared to the price in the heydays pre FY22. I'm guessing a lot depends on whether it can become a high ROE company again. Whether it can grow the earnings from that added FY22 investment - particularly in the USA? Must have a lot more competition over there and what is its 'moat'?

*AI Overview

"In FY22, Johns Lyng Group's (JLG) major acquisition was of Reconstruction Experts, a US-based provider of insurance-focused repair services. This acquisition, completed on January 1, 2022, was a significant and strategic move for JLG. Additionally, JLG acquired several other businesses during FY22, including Unitech Building Services and Steamatic Australia, both in the first half of the year."

Not Held

 

[ShareSuccess]

The Big Boy's are All buying in JLG......CITI.....J.P Morgan.....State street......Look out, the Price will rise then Fall when they sell again!

Long Term hold for me, but it will be interesting to see what they are upto?

 

[ShareSuccess]

The Big Boy's are All buying in JLG......CITI.....J.P Morgan.....State street......Look out, the Price will rise then Fall when they sell again!

Long Term hold for me, but it will be interesting to see what they are upto?

Can't Work out these Big Boy's......CITI sells out 20/5 Then Buy's Back in 21/5........What do they call this?......I suppose whatever they do, they are still earning fees!......

Stock up 5% Today.....I suppose 5% on a 5% buy is a nice piece of Change!