Hydrogen

This reminds me of so many other threads where people get fixated on a few negatives instead of the opportunity.

Collins foods - People want to be healthy and fried chicken is in decline, back when CKF was $1.70 now 9+
Ethane pipeline fund - Oh there's only one customer and the chinese own it. was 70c taken over at 1.70
A2 Milk - The A2 protein thing is fake and unproven. floated at 1.50 and got to 20 odd bucks, now 10

So_Cynical said:

This reminds me of so many other threads where people get fixated on a few negatives instead of the opportunity.

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Personally I see it as being about sorting the good companies from the duds.

As with every other industry, some companies will succeed, someone will become the poster boy and the rest end up either taken over or going broke.

Ideally you want to buy into whoever's going to become the poster boy for the industry. At the very least, avoid those who end up broke.

So_Cynical said:

This reminds me of so many other threads where people get fixated on a few negatives instead of the opportunity.

Collins foods - People want to be healthy and fried chicken is in decline, back when CKF was $1.70 now 9+
Ethane pipeline fund - Oh there's only one customer and the chinese own it. was 70c taken over at 1.70
A2 Milk - The A2 protein thing is fake and unproven. floated at 1.50 and got to 20 odd bucks, now 10

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A little bit of technical analysis could be useful and taking one in or out of these, for what it's worth.

sptrawler said:

IMO @rederob, there is an inevitability about hydrogen and nuclear, if global warming is to be stopped.
As you say there will be hurdles and costs, but the alternatives, don't work long term.
Just my opinion.
Now about this population issue?

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Remember Mr sprawler, narrative above facts, be it global warming or overpopulation..

So_Cynical said:

This reminds me of so many other threads where people get fixated on a few negatives instead of the opportunity.

Collins foods - People want to be healthy and fried chicken is in decline, back when CKF was $1.70 now 9+
Ethane pipeline fund - Oh there's only one customer and the chinese own it. was 70c taken over at 1.70
A2 Milk - The A2 protein thing is fake and unproven. floated at 1.50 and got to 20 odd bucks, now 10

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Just buy oil now and you have bought hydrogen in the future, and untill that time, you still sell oil.that is a one way not gamble

qldfrog said:

Remember Mr sprawler, narrative above facts, be it global warming or overpopulation..

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Yes Mr Frog, but there is a lot of money to be made, before all this plays out and climate change currently has center stage.
it is a bit like 5 years ago everyone was calling Elon Musk a nutcase, who would go broke, with his loony electric cars.
Now the narrative has changed, as political intervention happens, as per the U.K banning ICE vehicles from 2030.
Now the mainstream manufacturers have an albatross around their necks, having to not only supply the ICE cars and parts, but also pour billions into developing electric cars.
So in reality Musk has been given a huge boost, because he doesn't have to develop and support an ICE vehicle and legislation puts the onus on mainstream manufacturers to do both.
Overpopulation is a taboo subject, don't mention the elephant sitting in the corner, where is a virus when you need it.

sptrawler said:

Yes Mr Frog, but there is a lot of money to be made, before all this plays out and climate change currently has center stage.
it is a bit like 5 years ago everyone was calling Elon Musk a nutcase, who would go broke, with his loony electric cars.
Now the narrative has changed, as political intervention happens, as per the U.K banning ICE vehicles from 2030.
Now the mainstream manufacturers have an albatross around their necks

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Off topic but I've come across this line of thinking many times.

Average person will say "we'll cross that bridge when we come to it" and will be quick to shoot down anyone looking further ahead as a needless worrier and so on.

In practice those looking further ahead are selling their about to be worthless assets to those who'll cross the bridge when they come to it.

It's a convenient arrangement for those with foresight.

As for the hydrogen - understand whether you're investing in actual hydrogen production or whether you're really investing in politics or a pump and dump scheme. You could make money in any of those, just try to work out what any particular company is actually about so you know when to sell.

Smurf1976 said:

As for the hydrogen, as I say - understand whether you're investing in actual hydrogen production or whether you're really investing in politics or a pump and dump scheme. You could make money in any of those, just try to work out what any particular company is actually about so you know when to sell.

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As per usual nailed it smurf.
I'm only involved in one H2 play and only in a small way, but up 110% on purchase price and they are really into the poo. ?
People never stop making it and currently the methane is flared off, so anything productive will be a political winner.
If it works. which takes us to your last sentence, ala Carnegie wave generators.
Just my opinion.
On an aside, i'm seeing quite a few 'collectable' cars for sale.

Very interesting article, when you sweep away the vested interests, political biases and spin and focus on the actual relevant content. IMO
I will also post it the the 'the future of energy generation and storage' thread, as it really has some pertinent information, well in my humble opinion.
From the articel:

The Australian Energy Market Operator is to model even faster paths to net zero emissions, with a new “Export Superpower” scenario to assume Australia will reach net zero emissions in the early 2040s, and the electricity grid will lead the way and achieve even more rapid emissions cuts.

AEMO – whose job is primarily to keep the lights on in Australia’s main grids – broke new ground earlier this year with the release of the second version of its Integrated System Plan, a 20-year blueprint that included a “step change” scenario that assumed 94 per cent renewables share by 2040 as technology costs fell and the world woke from its climate slumber to take decisive action.

A new 180 page document – its 2021 Draft Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios report – goes even further, and suggests new scenarios that include Australia reaching net zero emissions as early as 2040, with the electricity sector – where emission cuts are seen as more readily achievable – delivering even more rapid reductions. The plunging cost of green hydrogen will play an important role.

“The proposed Export Superpower scenario results in a significantly lower (carbon) budget than the 2020 ISP’s Step Change scenario over the period 2021-2050 due to the more ambitious global decarbonisation target,” AEMO notes.

Those budgets are reflected in the tables above. And it’s important to note that the South Australia state Liberal government has thrown its support behind the green hydrogen transition, releasing a new climate plan that aims for 500 per cent renewables by 2050.

That means it will produce five times more than it needs for domestic electricity consumption, so hydrogen can be used in manufacturing or exported in various forms to other Australian states or international customers.

AEMO has a positive outlook for the cost of clean hydrogen and is predicting that the cost of electrolysers – the key technology that uses wind and solar power to “crack” water and create hydrogen – will follow a similar trajectory to that of solar PV and battery storage, falling more than 70 per cent over the decade.

AEMO has a positive outlook for the cost of clean hydrogen and is predicting that the cost of electrolysers – the key technology that uses wind and solar power to “crack” water and create hydrogen – will follow a similar trajectory to that of solar PV and battery storage, falling more than 70 per cent over the decade.
That's a big call to simply compare two forms of energy systems like that and extrapolate those values. I'm sure its possible, but a lot more needs to be understood. Does this imply that green hydrogen can look forward to receiving an avalanche of subsidies in the form of feed in tariffs that wind and solar received? for instance? or is that a given?
just off the top of my head...

bk1 said:

AEMO has a positive outlook for the cost of clean hydrogen and is predicting that the cost of electrolysers – the key technology that uses wind and solar power to “crack” water and create hydrogen – will follow a similar trajectory to that of solar PV and battery storage, falling more than 70 per cent over the decade.
That's a big call to simply compare two forms of energy systems like that and extrapolate those values. I'm sure its possible, but a lot more needs to be understood. Does this imply that green hydrogen can look forward to receiving an avalanche of subsidies in the form of feed in tariffs that wind and solar received? for instance? or is that a given?
just off the top of my head...

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IMO the AEMO will have some very knowledgeable engineers onboard, so if they make a statement, it is probably based on very good projections. Far better than the media or the politicians IMO.
They are responsible for the 'security and reliability' of the grid, I would assume they don't take that responsibility lightly.
From my experience in power generation, that responsibility is held in high regard.

Significant announcement in December from Alkaline Fuel Energy ( AFC UK) on joint production with ABB of a mobile hydrogen fuel cell based electric charging unit. The process will allow widespread charging of electric vehicles off the grid using pollution free hydrogen.

AFC share price has jumped 350% since the announcement.

https://www.afcenergy.com/afc-energy-and-abb-partner-to-power-up-the-future-of-clean-ev-charging/

Twiggy Forest, Chairman of Fortescue Metals, has been redirecting his energy to producing green hydrogen on a vast scale with the final intention of of producing green steel and revolutionizing Australias energy and steel industry. Just spent 5 months touring the investment centres around the world to create the framework for this nation changing venture.

Twiggy also sees this as an essential part of dealing with CC in the very near future. He is producing the Boyer Lectures on the ABC this year with the theme being Rebooting Australia: How ethical entrepreneurs can help shape a better future,.

Powerful stuff. I will repost this in other relevant threads.

Thanks @basilio I found confessions of a carbon emitter well worth reading.

rederob said:

The principal impediments to a hydrogen future are:

• Energy loss
• Infrastructure
• Demand

Irrespective of politics, there is presently no commercial imperative for hydrogen.
First, as Elon Musk has regularly pointed out, the production chain for hydrogen is energy intensive compared to batteries. While that puts batteries in a strong position for land transport over the next decade or two, the physical constraint to a battery-powered future will be the inability to scale battery production fast enough, combined with the mining sector being unable to satisfy raw material demand. In such a scenario the base case for hydrogen will grow, and the hydrogen cost curve will follow the downward trajectory of battery technology.
Second, apart from the fact there is very little hydrogen infrastructure around the world, there is presently no "best model" to work from. And that's aside from the issue of blue or green hydrogen production. That said, green hydrogen has the advantage of electroysers being nodal to population centres, and using fiber-reinforced polymer pipelines not only a means to distribute hydrogen but also to "store" the gas (as unlike water, hydrogen can be compressed within its pipelines and regulated to flow at a much lesser pressure to its end users, if necessary).
Finally, as the interactive graphic below shows, the potential demand covers all transport sectors and energy intensive industrial sectors:
View attachment 116926
The will be a major transitional hurdle to jump for each and every sector above and, of course, an extra cost.

While a number of posters bring out "tribal" issues, the real question is what are we planning for- globally - when fossil fuels run out?

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There is definitely applications where hydrogen Tech and other synthetic fuels will thrive and other areas where battery tech will thrive.

Another example of too little too late.
If you notice the wording, it talks of clean hydrogen:
So the funding is significantly about hydrogen from fossil fuels, as almost half the budget allocation is for CCS.
We appear to have a rock ape as our minister for Energy!

Here's a concise and up to date explanation of where things are at in terms of actual use today, and what's in the pipeline:

One of my Hydrogen mates forwarded this on to me.

https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/chi...earth-hydrogen-storage-alloy-starts-in-china/

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

One of my Hydrogen mates forwarded this on to me.

https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/chi...earth-hydrogen-storage-alloy-starts-in-china/

gg

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is hydrogen really that rare?

TechnoCap said:

is hydrogen really that rare?

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No