House prices to keep rising for years

numbercruncher · 3 March 2008

theasxgorilla said:
OK.

$1,109 p.w. * 52 = $57,668.

$65,000 - $57,668 = $7,332

$7,332 / $57,668 * 100 = 12.7%

Closer to 13% than 12%, certainly not 14%, and no where near the 20% our local doom and gloom troll threw up.

IF you take the average male wage, including overtime, from the ABS, you get $64,875 p.a. The difference between this figure and $57,668 is 12.49%...or closer to 12 .

ASX.G

Ahhh .... nice work, got to love the splitting hairs thing you guys are into.

Now tell me had I not bumped the 2 (in 20pc) button when dropping in a hasty reply and had instead hit the 1 (as in 10pc) , would you all have taken so much time and effort in discussing the Average wage and Informed me how I undercalculated ?

Funny ole thread this one.

Anyway, havnt heard of any RE price rises all YEAR, whats up with that ? Heard all about rising rates, falling clearance rates, affordability blah blah, but not one iota about rising prices in the media as this thread claims !

Link us some price rises RE bulls for the love of god!

theasxgorilla · 3 March 2008

KIWIKARLOS said:
After all they are your flesh n blood (we justfound out my wifes expecting its changed my view on things quite a bit)

Big congratulations KIWIKARLOS!

grace · 3 March 2008

Don't know if this is the place to put this info but a new website started today with free info on recent price sales (we have always paid for this info in the past). It looks fairly up to date.

www.onthehouse.com.au

theasxgorilla · 3 March 2008

numbercruncher said:
Ahhh .... nice work, got to love the splitting hairs thing you guys are into.

Hey, he was right! $57k to $65k is 14%...but I had to get myself out of being wrong somehow

To my mind it proves a point though...you can substantiate all kinds of things with the right numbers. Which is why I give you in particular, amongst other bears, a hard time. Back of the napkin calculations are interesting, but maketh a bear market in real estate, they do not.

ASX.G

Aargh! · 3 March 2008

theasxgorilla said:
Hey, he was right! $57k to $65k is 14%...but I had to get myself out of being wrong somehow

To my mind it proves a point though...you can substantiate all kinds of things with the right numbers. Which is why I give you in particular, amongst other bears, a hard time. Back of the napkin calculations are interesting, but maketh a bear market in real estate, they do not.

ASX.G

Sorry for not adding anything to the thread other than correcting a (14% - 12%) / 12% = 16.7% error.

AAA · 3 March 2008

numbercruncher said:
Funny ole thread this one.

Anyway, havnt heard of any RE price rises all YEAR, whats up with that ? Heard all about rising rates, falling clearance rates, affordability blah blah, but not one iota about rising prices in the media as this thread claims !

Link us some price rises RE bulls for the love of god!

http://reareports.realestate.com.au/viewFreeReport.do?suburb=Oxley&state=QLD&step=getRecommend&productId=1&postcode=4075&actionTarget=viewFreeReport&y=10&x=40

Scroll down the report to the table listing the last 12 monthly Brisbane median house prices. Nice trend including a nice jump for January this year.

Units are doing ok as well.

numbercruncher · 3 March 2008

Thanks AAA

Yes according to that 16pc+ across the board for Brisbane in Jan/Feb alone, who verifys and compiles this data ? Just seems a little suspect considering the current enviroment, I have no proof its false or anything, but it seems a little suspicious is all. Annualised its like 100pc, If it really is climbing at this rate, the RBA is way behind the curve and needs to start raising 1pc a pop.

The other thing I find odd, reports say Brisbane growth 07 was 20pc but that report shows 15.6.

Anyway folks keep the price growth news coming its interesting to keep track of in the current enviroment!

tech/a · 3 March 2008

Households in Oxley are primarily couples with children and are likely to be repaying between $600.00 - $800.00 per month on mortgage repayments. In general, people in Oxley work in a non-specific occupation. In 2001, 70% of the homes in Oxley were owner-occupied compared with 71% in 2006.

Found this stat interesting with regard to loan commitments.
Whats "Likely" mean? ---A guess?

gfresh · 3 March 2008

Yes according to that 16pc+ across the board for Brisbane in Jan/Feb alone, who verifys and compiles this data ? Just seems a little suspect considering the current enviroment, I have no proof its false or anything, but it seems a little suspicious is all. Annualised its like 100pc, If it really is climbing at this rate, the RBA is way behind the curve and needs to start raising 1pc a pop.

Here is some more stats and info for January

http://www.residex.com.au/newsletter/source2008_02cMC.html

Again, it really depends what you read, as you often get different figures. These guys say Brisbane over 2007: Up 23.3% for houses, 17.05% for units.. 10yr average they quote for houses is 12.21% and units 9.9%

AAA · 3 March 2008

I think the latest 16% increase is comparing the January median with the median for the previous 12 months. Have a look at the table of prices- not the % increases. It goes like this:
410k Feb07
405
410
410
430
447
445
456
465
470
479
502 Jan08

That's about a 5% rise from Dec 07 to Jan08 and a 22% rise from Feb07 to Jan 08. The 16% rise would mean the median price for the year was around 435k which sounds consistent with what I have heard.

AAA · 3 March 2008

tech/a said:
Found this stat interesting with regard to loan commitments.
Whats "Likely" mean? ---A guess?

I think they take the information from the latest census. I don't know if they adjust it for interest rate rises. I think it is a fairly meaningless stat.

I really like the household income graphs. I think it gives a good indication whether a suburb is overpriced and vulnerable in a slump.

chops_a_must · 3 March 2008

Sentences like this, really get my eyes open:

In general, people in Oxley work in a non-specific occupation.

Does that mean, that specifically, these people work in a general occupation?

Do all the people in this area work in exactly the same, "non-specific occupation"?

Do they all have 5 jobs? Meaning their job couldn't be specified?

Or is this an occupation that hasn't been formerly recognised in a dictionary, and native to this area?

Or more likely, does the author of this sentence really have no clue?

Snakey · 3 March 2008

chops_a_must said:
Sentences like this, really get my eyes open:

Does that mean, that specifically, these people work in a general occupation?

Do all the people in this area work in exactly the same, "non-specific occupation"?

Do they all have 5 jobs? Meaning their job couldn't be specified?

Or is this an occupation that hasn't been formerly recognised in a dictionary, and native to this area?

Or more likely, does the author of this sentence really have no clue?

classic stuff chops.. get into those delusional RE bulls and multi home investors who have stolen the chance for a first home buyer.
I guess their day will come...higher interest rates, devaluing properties, pity we cant see their red faces when the proof is there in black and white.
Fence sitter Tech/a - Please answer this question so I know where you stand - I am an average man on an average wage with a average deposit living in lets say Adelaide in Feb 2008. Is now a good time to buy an average house with a average price tag in an average area. Please no rambling just a simple yes or no answer. Do you have the balls to answer that question? I doubt it . straight yes or no pleeeaasase, any other RE bulls or bears for that matter care to put it down in history with your name attached to it. Please reply as such -
In answer to Snakeys Question : Yes or no
P.s. Snakey's answer to Snakeys question : NO

robots · 4 March 2008

hello,

just to clarify what average deposit is, banks take this as 20%, so snakey do you have 20% deposit,

if so, then yes buy, if you have say 15% deposit and get FHOG then yes,

if you basically cant afford it because you have no deposit then no, go rent no issue with that as many here are telling us its gold to rent as its so cheap,

thankyou

robots

tech/a · 4 March 2008

Fence sitter Tech/a - Please answer this question so I know where you stand - I am an average man on an average wage with a average deposit living in lets say Adelaide in Feb 2008. Is now a good time to buy an average house with a average price tag in an average area. Please no rambling just a simple yes or no answer. Do you have the balls to answer that question? I doubt it . straight yes or no pleeeaasase, any other RE bulls or bears for that matter care to put it down in history with your name attached to it. Please reply as such -

Lets take some avarage areas.
Davoran Park
Elizabeth
Salisbury
Para hills.
Gawler.
And all surrounding Average areas within 5k

These types of areas a resounding YES YES YES YES YES.
Ill see if I can find some examples.
Will also keep an eye on growth in these Suburbs.

As I said I have the plans for the Northern Expressway on my desk.
Its a Monte these areas are going to RISE YES RISE in price.

For you Snakey.
Your this guy how would you structure your purchase what would you be looking for?

Just plain bullet points---1-2-3-4 etc

Some great buys here.

YES YES YES YES!!!!

krisbarry · 4 March 2008

tech/a said:
Lets take some avarage areas.
Davoran Park
Elizabeth
Salisbury
Para hills.
Gawler.
And all surrounding Average areas within 5k

YES YES YES YES!!!!

lol tech, what you are really saying is yes to drug deals, yes to prostitution, yes to bashings, and yes to murders, and yes to tennants trashing your investment properties etc etc.

If you are really honest tech/a these area are horrible crime ridden suburbs.

It is amazing how even the real estate headstrong gurus in the property market are talking up the most filthiest crime infested suburbs. What gives?

krisbarry · 4 March 2008

tech/a said:
Lets take some avarage areas.
Davoran Park
Elizabeth
Salisbury
Para hills.
Gawler.
And all surrounding Average areas within 5k

YES YES YES YES!!!!

I say NO NO NO, these are the first suburbs to be hit, with lower house prices as interest rates keep on rising. High morgagte belt areas with low wages, ouch! I say stear clear!

tech/a · 4 March 2008

And therin lies the difference between people like you and people like me,Stop.

Mr Average would be best to seek out opportunity so he departs from the "Average crowd".Where as those who remain Mr Average will find a reason to turn that or any opportunity into a liability.

One of the qualifications for MR average wasnt (Well I couldnt find it) that he was a Moron.

MR Average would do his due diligence.

There are by far a vast majority of honest hard working people living in these areas who do take pride in their efforts to get ahead in their world.
You under estimate human nature!

I'm sure you have come across this with your own rentals

numbercruncher · 4 March 2008

This following article is about the massive spike in Repos in Sydney, but just check out the huge spike in listings !

Following the February 5 rise, there were an average 31,160 properties a week listed for sale in NSW, more than double the 15,888 listed during the same period the previous year.

In Sydney, there were an average 11,638 properties listed up from 7849 during the same time in 2007, according to RP Data.

RP Data research director Tim Lawless said the figures showed the last interest rate rise had already affected Sydney's property market.

He said homeowners concerned about interest rates rises, inflation and increasing costs of living were looking to sell despite prices in Sydney's mortgage belt still below 2004.

"The problem is that there is simply a large amount of supply and little demand from purchasers," he said.

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23314150-5001021,00.html

KIWIKARLOS · 4 March 2008

http://www.rpdata.net.au/

Shows that the only real average decrease has been in WA

Although median house price is a load of BS as houses can not be priced as a commodity as there are so many variables between each and every property. There are stark differences between areas though, at the moment south west and western Sydney are decreasing in value whilst inner west and north increasing quite alot.

House prices to keep rising for years

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

grace

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Aargh!

AAA

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

gfresh

AAA

AAA

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

Snakey

robots

hello

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

krisbarry

krisbarry

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

KIWIKARLOS

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