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@ducati916 I appreciate your posts and enjoy the content, if I want to go down a particular rabbit hole I use this thing called the internet.
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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I would like to add my appreciation of ducati's posts , and my dismay that they may cease. Don't let them get you down , Duc.
Cheers
Jim
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Ducati,
I do hope you reconsider.
Your posts have been well researched, very informative, detailed and invaluable.
Such a shame it has come to this ….
Cheers
I do hope you reconsider.
Your posts have been well researched, very informative, detailed and invaluable.
Such a shame it has come to this ….
Cheers
Sean K
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Gold is only going one way.
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How do rising gold prices affect a porfolio of gold mining companies?
First, I go back 5 years and track the following companies:
Long term owners of Perseus will be cheering.
Next I look at these same companies from January 2024, which was when POG broke decisively upwards, and we see Evolution Mining jumping 2 places to now take the reins.
POG dipped in the last 2 months of 2024 before relaunching even more sharply upwards in 2025. Now we see Newmont match Evolution in the period to date:
Anyone very late on the scene and jumping on the POG juggernaut in FY 2026 will have done ok with any of the 5 companies, although we see NEM and RMS outperforming the rest:
The above is simply illustrative of the differences of timing the market versus time in the market. For example, had you bought each of the 5 companies on 1 August 2026 then NST actually shows a better percentage gain than all other had they been purchased in from day 1 in FY 2026.
First, I go back 5 years and track the following companies:
- Newcrest - which became Newmont NEM in October 2023
- Northern Star - NST
- Evolution - EVN
- Ramelius - RMS and
- Perseus - PRU
Long term owners of Perseus will be cheering.
Next I look at these same companies from January 2024, which was when POG broke decisively upwards, and we see Evolution Mining jumping 2 places to now take the reins.
POG dipped in the last 2 months of 2024 before relaunching even more sharply upwards in 2025. Now we see Newmont match Evolution in the period to date:
Anyone very late on the scene and jumping on the POG juggernaut in FY 2026 will have done ok with any of the 5 companies, although we see NEM and RMS outperforming the rest:
The above is simply illustrative of the differences of timing the market versus time in the market. For example, had you bought each of the 5 companies on 1 August 2026 then NST actually shows a better percentage gain than all other had they been purchased in from day 1 in FY 2026.
Bits n' pieces from everywhere 
Gold
“Potential rate cuts amid rising inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of persistently elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Gold is breaking through its inflation adjusted peak from 1980, a level that stood untouched for 45 years. Moves of this magnitude don’t happen in quiet times. They usually mean the market is sending a signal that confidence in the existing monetary framework is eroding. Back in 1980, gold exploded higher after the U.S. left the gold standard, inflation ran hot, and trust in paper assets collapsed.
Today’s rally rhymes with that history, but the drivers are different. This time, it’s a toxic mix of ballooning U.S. debt and deficits, questions around Fed credibility, geopolitical fractures, and record central bank buying, especially from emerging markets trying to reduce dependence on the dollar. That central bank demand alone sets a structural floor under prices in a way we didn’t see in 1980.
What could drive Gold to $US5-10k over next 2 to 3 years?
Dollar devaluation US$ index - Stephen Miran's Mar-a-Largo Accord - Global debt has climbed to an all-time high of $337.7 trillion by the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest Global Debt Monitor from the Institute of International Finance (IIF). China, US , France, Germany, Japan, UK drove the largest increases. Some of these increases were magnified by currency movements, as the US dollar has weakened by nearly 9.8% in 2025 against a basket of major global currencies, inflating dollar-denominated debt - Debt-to-GDP ratios — a critical indicator of repayment ability
Single most important signal in 2025 is that gold keeps rallying even as USD s stable vs the G10. Markets aren't trading Dollar debasement, they're trading broad debasement of all fiat currencies against gold.
More emerging economy central bank diversifying into Gold in the midst of geopolitical disorder
Tether Buying - 5Sep25 Financial Times - Tether, the world’s biggest stablecoin company, has held talks about investing in gold mining, seeking to deploy its vast crypto profits into bullion. The company has held discussions with mining and investment groups about investing in the entire gold supply chain, from mining and refining to trading and royalty companies, according to four people familiar with the recent talks.
War
Financial Crisis GFC 2.0
A day will arrive when gold producing countries wake up and start to hoard gold, crimping supply
BofA 19Sep25 - 39% of fund managers admit their gold allocation is basically zero. Average sits at just 2.3%. The herd is asleep… perfect setup for gold to rip when reality hits.
Fund flows are beginning to pour into Gold ETFs which means these monies would have to buy gold miners.
More;
China - de-dollarization, strategic influence, Gold custodian
Russia - sanction insulation, currency stability,
Turkey - inflation hedge, local currency risk,
Germany - tradition, trust in gold,
The relationship between recession and gold prices has been remarkably consistent over multiple economic cycles. Chart analysis reveals that gold tends to break out in real terms during significant economic downturns, providing investors with a reliable hedge against market turbulence.
Gold has long been considered a reliable hedge against inflation, with its value often rising during periods of high inflation --- Bond yields rise on inflation fears.
The relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar (US$ index) has historically been inverse - when the dollar strengthens, gold typically weakens, and vice versa. This relationship is grounded in several fundamental market principles. [A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.]
Interest rate cuts pressure the greenback.
In 2024, central banks bought over 1,000 metric tons of gold—for the third year in a row. This is not normal. For decades, central banks were net sellers of gold. Now they’re stockpiling it again.
Confusion whether tariffs would be on Gold caused volatility in the market on 8Aug25 a drop of 2.5% but on Monday11Aug25, it was cleared up that there wouldn’t be tariffs.
Fed officials publishing research notes about gold revaluation which could be worth US$1Trillion as it’s currently valued @ 261.5mil ozs times US$42.22/oz … this would be inflationary.
Copper input materials such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes, and anodes and copper scrap” are not subject to tariffs.
Why Central Banks Know What You Don’t (23Sep25)
Gold isn’t tired and it might not be peaking yet. Even if at $3,700 an ounce, the headlines say, “all-time highs.” But zoom out and you’ll see the real story. Investors are looking at the wrong number, and central banks might see something entirely different. Gold is still cheap when you adjust for money supply, and the setup for much higher prices is staring us in the face.
Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve created $6 trillion in new money.
Yet gold, the asset that’s supposed to protect against currency debasement, hasn’t even kept pace. It should have, but it hasn’t. And the gap between what gold costs and what it should cost is $800 per ounce. Gold is actually cheap relative to the global currency fiat money supply. Despite hitting nominal all-time highs, gold is actually cheaper relative to money supply than during previous peaks. At $3,600, everyone knows that gold is at nominal all-time highs. But relative to M2 money supply, it’s well below historical peaks. This suggests significant upside potential if the market catches up to monetary expansion. China, Poland, India, they’re buying record amounts at $3,600 an ounce.
The Professionals Are Loading Up----Now look at how the big money is positioned.
Since early 2024, managed money long contracts have absolutely crushed shorts. Those blue bars dominate the red ones by a factor of 5-to-1. September’s net long positioning is the strongest we’ve seen since April. Translation: the pros are leaning hard into gold. Hedge funds, traders, money managers, are not fading this rally. They’re piling in and think this will continue, with good reason. Rates are bending lower, deficits are ballooning, tariffs are flying, and the geopolitical issues continue to be a tinderbox. Smart money knows it.
The 50% Profit Jump Already Happening. Forget everything you know about gold miners from the last decade. At $3,600 gold, the average North American producer generates $2,200 per ounce in margin (assuming $1,400 all-in sustaining costs).
Here’s the maths:
The Maths Doesn’t Care About Headlines. Gold at $3,700 isn’t expensive, it’s mispriced. Central banks aren’t waiting for confirmation and nowhere is that more evident than China adding 225 tons in 2024 and continuing in 2025. The $6 trillion in money supply created hasn’t disappeared anywhere, it’s sloshing around the system, looking for scarcity. And there’s nothing scarcer than an asset that hasn’t been printed since the Big Bang. Gordon Brown sold at $282 thinking gold was dead money. Today’s central banks are buying at $3,600 knowing it’s cheap relative to the currency they’re creating.
11Aug25 - Gold plunged after US President Donald Trump said there would be no tariffs on imported gold bars, undermining reports that sent the yellow metal to all-time highs. Gold soared on Friday after US Customs appeared to rule that a 39% tariff would apply to imported gold bars. //// 11Aug25 (Reuters) - (This Aug 11 story has been refiled to fix a typo in the headline) U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he would not impose tariffs on gold, a move welcomed by global bullion markets and which ended days of speculation that the yellow metal could be caught up in the ongoing global trade spat. //// 8Sep25 Mining World Congress UK - Starting today, key minerals including gold, graphite, tungsten and uranium are officially exempt from US global tariffs under an executive order signed late on Friday by President Donald Trump. These minerals — with the exclusion of gold bullion — are all considered critical for sectors including nuclear energy, aerospace and advanced manufacturing, and are not produced in sufficient quantities in the US.
Gold
“Potential rate cuts amid rising inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of persistently elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Gold is breaking through its inflation adjusted peak from 1980, a level that stood untouched for 45 years. Moves of this magnitude don’t happen in quiet times. They usually mean the market is sending a signal that confidence in the existing monetary framework is eroding. Back in 1980, gold exploded higher after the U.S. left the gold standard, inflation ran hot, and trust in paper assets collapsed.
Today’s rally rhymes with that history, but the drivers are different. This time, it’s a toxic mix of ballooning U.S. debt and deficits, questions around Fed credibility, geopolitical fractures, and record central bank buying, especially from emerging markets trying to reduce dependence on the dollar. That central bank demand alone sets a structural floor under prices in a way we didn’t see in 1980.
What could drive Gold to $US5-10k over next 2 to 3 years?
Dollar devaluation US$ index - Stephen Miran's Mar-a-Largo Accord - Global debt has climbed to an all-time high of $337.7 trillion by the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest Global Debt Monitor from the Institute of International Finance (IIF). China, US , France, Germany, Japan, UK drove the largest increases. Some of these increases were magnified by currency movements, as the US dollar has weakened by nearly 9.8% in 2025 against a basket of major global currencies, inflating dollar-denominated debt - Debt-to-GDP ratios — a critical indicator of repayment ability
Single most important signal in 2025 is that gold keeps rallying even as USD s stable vs the G10. Markets aren't trading Dollar debasement, they're trading broad debasement of all fiat currencies against gold.
More emerging economy central bank diversifying into Gold in the midst of geopolitical disorder
Tether Buying - 5Sep25 Financial Times - Tether, the world’s biggest stablecoin company, has held talks about investing in gold mining, seeking to deploy its vast crypto profits into bullion. The company has held discussions with mining and investment groups about investing in the entire gold supply chain, from mining and refining to trading and royalty companies, according to four people familiar with the recent talks.
War
Financial Crisis GFC 2.0
A day will arrive when gold producing countries wake up and start to hoard gold, crimping supply
BofA 19Sep25 - 39% of fund managers admit their gold allocation is basically zero. Average sits at just 2.3%. The herd is asleep… perfect setup for gold to rip when reality hits.
Fund flows are beginning to pour into Gold ETFs which means these monies would have to buy gold miners.
More;
China - de-dollarization, strategic influence, Gold custodian
Russia - sanction insulation, currency stability,
Turkey - inflation hedge, local currency risk,
Germany - tradition, trust in gold,
The relationship between recession and gold prices has been remarkably consistent over multiple economic cycles. Chart analysis reveals that gold tends to break out in real terms during significant economic downturns, providing investors with a reliable hedge against market turbulence.
Gold has long been considered a reliable hedge against inflation, with its value often rising during periods of high inflation --- Bond yields rise on inflation fears.
The relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar (US$ index) has historically been inverse - when the dollar strengthens, gold typically weakens, and vice versa. This relationship is grounded in several fundamental market principles. [A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.]
Interest rate cuts pressure the greenback.
In 2024, central banks bought over 1,000 metric tons of gold—for the third year in a row. This is not normal. For decades, central banks were net sellers of gold. Now they’re stockpiling it again.
Confusion whether tariffs would be on Gold caused volatility in the market on 8Aug25 a drop of 2.5% but on Monday11Aug25, it was cleared up that there wouldn’t be tariffs.
Fed officials publishing research notes about gold revaluation which could be worth US$1Trillion as it’s currently valued @ 261.5mil ozs times US$42.22/oz … this would be inflationary.
Copper input materials such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes, and anodes and copper scrap” are not subject to tariffs.
Why Central Banks Know What You Don’t (23Sep25)
Gold isn’t tired and it might not be peaking yet. Even if at $3,700 an ounce, the headlines say, “all-time highs.” But zoom out and you’ll see the real story. Investors are looking at the wrong number, and central banks might see something entirely different. Gold is still cheap when you adjust for money supply, and the setup for much higher prices is staring us in the face.
Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve created $6 trillion in new money.
- That’s a 40% increase in M2 money supply and more dollars created in four years than in the previous decade combined.
Yet gold, the asset that’s supposed to protect against currency debasement, hasn’t even kept pace. It should have, but it hasn’t. And the gap between what gold costs and what it should cost is $800 per ounce. Gold is actually cheap relative to the global currency fiat money supply. Despite hitting nominal all-time highs, gold is actually cheaper relative to money supply than during previous peaks. At $3,600, everyone knows that gold is at nominal all-time highs. But relative to M2 money supply, it’s well below historical peaks. This suggests significant upside potential if the market catches up to monetary expansion. China, Poland, India, they’re buying record amounts at $3,600 an ounce.
- If gold matches its 2011 money-supply ratio, you’re looking at about $4,400 per ounce.
- If gold matches the 1980s ratio, it’s about $9,700 per ounce.
The Professionals Are Loading Up----Now look at how the big money is positioned.
Since early 2024, managed money long contracts have absolutely crushed shorts. Those blue bars dominate the red ones by a factor of 5-to-1. September’s net long positioning is the strongest we’ve seen since April. Translation: the pros are leaning hard into gold. Hedge funds, traders, money managers, are not fading this rally. They’re piling in and think this will continue, with good reason. Rates are bending lower, deficits are ballooning, tariffs are flying, and the geopolitical issues continue to be a tinderbox. Smart money knows it.
The 50% Profit Jump Already Happening. Forget everything you know about gold miners from the last decade. At $3,600 gold, the average North American producer generates $2,200 per ounce in margin (assuming $1,400 all-in sustaining costs).
Here’s the maths:
- At $2,900 gold, the top miners were pocketing about $1,500 per ounce.
- At $3,650 gold, the top players are pocketing $2,250 per ounce.
The Maths Doesn’t Care About Headlines. Gold at $3,700 isn’t expensive, it’s mispriced. Central banks aren’t waiting for confirmation and nowhere is that more evident than China adding 225 tons in 2024 and continuing in 2025. The $6 trillion in money supply created hasn’t disappeared anywhere, it’s sloshing around the system, looking for scarcity. And there’s nothing scarcer than an asset that hasn’t been printed since the Big Bang. Gordon Brown sold at $282 thinking gold was dead money. Today’s central banks are buying at $3,600 knowing it’s cheap relative to the currency they’re creating.
11Aug25 - Gold plunged after US President Donald Trump said there would be no tariffs on imported gold bars, undermining reports that sent the yellow metal to all-time highs. Gold soared on Friday after US Customs appeared to rule that a 39% tariff would apply to imported gold bars. //// 11Aug25 (Reuters) - (This Aug 11 story has been refiled to fix a typo in the headline) U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he would not impose tariffs on gold, a move welcomed by global bullion markets and which ended days of speculation that the yellow metal could be caught up in the ongoing global trade spat. //// 8Sep25 Mining World Congress UK - Starting today, key minerals including gold, graphite, tungsten and uranium are officially exempt from US global tariffs under an executive order signed late on Friday by President Donald Trump. These minerals — with the exclusion of gold bullion — are all considered critical for sectors including nuclear energy, aerospace and advanced manufacturing, and are not produced in sufficient quantities in the US.
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Earlier this week, this Substack noted that there was a divergence between market views on precious metals being ‘overbought’ in comparison to data showing that silver and platinum, in particular, are facing extraordinary London shortage in the face of increasing global demand.
The metal shortage in the world’s largest physical precious metals market in London signaled by extreme implied lease rates for silver and platinum and price backwardation tell us that there is a run into physical precious metals.
Gold has the greatest liquidity due to central banks supplying their metal to market and is thus currently showing the least stress.
Figure 1 - Long Duration (20 year+) US Treasuries (TLT-NY ETF as Proxy), Gold, Silver, and Platinum Price Trends September 17 to 25, 2025; source: TradingView.com
What we can say is that given the world’s increasing move toward the security of real asset ownership and possession, we can see data showing an accelerated rate of metal demand moving toward sudden failure in the London precious metals market.
Failure of one metal’s leverage scheme in London will likely trigger sequential failure of the others.
Asset quality, ownership, and possession then becomes the primary concern.
jog on
duc
The metal shortage in the world’s largest physical precious metals market in London signaled by extreme implied lease rates for silver and platinum and price backwardation tell us that there is a run into physical precious metals.
Gold has the greatest liquidity due to central banks supplying their metal to market and is thus currently showing the least stress.
Figure 1 - Long Duration (20 year+) US Treasuries (TLT-NY ETF as Proxy), Gold, Silver, and Platinum Price Trends September 17 to 25, 2025; source: TradingView.com
The Global Run On Physical Precious Metals Is Terminal To The Leveraged London Cash Metal Market
In 2025, gold priced in USD is up 41%, silver is up 52% and platinum is up 63%. Compare those returns to bond yields.As noted above, the London silver market is also showing signs of silver supply distress.
Data from the London precious metals markets are intentionally opaque and exact timing is impossible to predict.
What we can say is that given the world’s increasing move toward the security of real asset ownership and possession, we can see data showing an accelerated rate of metal demand moving toward sudden failure in the London precious metals market.
Failure of one metal’s leverage scheme in London will likely trigger sequential failure of the others.
Asset quality, ownership, and possession then becomes the primary concern.
jog on
duc
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Just in the last little while the Chinese cousins in Hong Kong have established a defensive line just above $USD 3800
We live in interesting times.
gg
We live in interesting times.
gg
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If it continues on its current course of action, gold is going to reach around $4000 USD by Christmas break. It's going to be good news for Gold miners if it holds above this for the next 6 months.
Got to be a black swan event to shake this down below around the $3500 USD.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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I was thinking of black swans re gold this afternoon.If it continues on its current course of action, gold is going to reach around $4000 USD by Christmas break. It's going to be good news for Gold miners if it holds above this for the next 6 months.
Got to be a black swan event to shake this down below around the $3500 USD.
Trump comes to mind. Nobody else would be able to contain the price, I'm thinking in relation to major holders. My guess is that if anyone did try to artificially contain gold and not leave it to the market, there would be a proper gold rush. Yes, Trump is the only one.
Holders by central bank at end of Q2 2025
gg
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