Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Good evening gold lovers,
Outstanding levels once again achieved, progression north and the heavy lifting achieved is not, for mine, under consideration. rcw1 is considering how far will PoG go calendar year ending.

US $4000 is no longer a 'stab in the dark' ... at what odds you may well ask rcw1 with a rum in hand? ha ha ha ha ha ha

Have a very nice Sunday and good night Irene.

Kind regards
rcw1

rcw1 said:

Good evening gold lovers,
Outstanding levels once again achieved, progression north and the heavy lifting achieved is not, for mine, under consideration. rcw1 is considering how far will PoG go calendar year ending.

US $4000 is no longer a 'stab in the dark' ... at what odds you may well ask rcw1 with a rum in hand? ha ha ha ha ha ha

Have a very nice Sunday and good night Irene.

Kind regards
rcw1

Click to expand...

Bit early in the late arvo for good night just yet Me Lovely

Antirnator said:

Your imaginary narrative has no basis in fact given all the trade deals and peace deals that have been completed. As of July US inflation is still at 2.7%, far less than the whole Biden administration. It might go up or it might settle now the trade deals are done, I will wait and see...

Click to expand...

I'll avoid commenting on politics as such but my thinking is over the medium term higher inflation is fully intentional in order to devalue the debt in real terms. I see that as non-political in that I expect it'll happen regardless of which party supplies the US president.

Short term anything can happen but longer term I do think those buying (as distinct from trading) gold have thoughts along those lines in their mind. Just my

So the biggest news for gold was the UE report Friday:





Which as you add context has really serious issues for US deficits:




Deficits are, unsurprisingly, correlated to the UE rate (increased social welfare and fall in taxes).




Low UE rates have allowed rates to fall. Interestingly and importantly, low UE rates since 2020 have broken the correlation. Rates at the long end are rising even with the 'official stats.' on employment which rather suggests that the official figures are BS.

This is consistent across Western economies:




Which are all highly indebted.

The $MOVE early last week signalled something:




Almost immediately liquidity was added:







So the bottom line is that the US (nor any Western economy) can tolerate any form of deflation or a real interest rate that is positive. The nominal rates that pertain are positive, but are still negative in real terms, just not negative enough to touch the level of debt.


Obviously because the US must inflate, gold will move significantly higher.


Looking at the past to ascertain the future:





Gold declined when real rates provided a positive yield. Volcker could provide a positive real yield because debt was Debt/GDP




Was sitting at 40%.


So no positive real yields are possible. Inflation and lots of it, at an increasing pace is the order of the day.

The UE rate rising, just lights a fire under Trump and Bessent as deficits will explode.

The reason that Trump is fixated on gaining control of the Federal Reserve is that the Fed will need to move quickly to YCC to rein in the long end of the curve. Somewhere in the region of 2.5% with inflation running at 20%+. Which means that gold can rise at 20%+ per year going forward, more once the momo traders get involved.

Also, the Eurodollar thesis has now been highlighted by one of the top US think tank chaps as a risk to manage.

The whole 'tariff' argument/policy is a nothingburger.

The USD is hideously overvalued as against gold, THE RESERVE ASSET of the world.

China, Russia and India have all DEVALUED their currencies as against gold. The USD to be competitive and thus create trade, needs to devalue by +/- 40%. Possibly even slightly more.

The reason that it hasn't, is that Trump et al still harbour delusions that the USD still = King dollar. This fantasy is unravelling at an ever faster rate.

Eventually the US will devalue as against gold.

Which means another Sunday night massacre as the USD revalues against gold.

To rebalance the $300 Trillion in global debt, gold needs to revalue to +/- $75,000oz


jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

So the biggest news for gold was the UE report Friday:


View attachment 207876


Which as you add context has really serious issues for US deficits:


View attachment 207875

Deficits are, unsurprisingly, correlated to the UE rate (increased social welfare and fall in taxes).


View attachment 207874

Low UE rates have allowed rates to fall. Interestingly and importantly, low UE rates since 2020 have broken the correlation. Rates at the long end are rising even with the 'official stats.' on employment which rather suggests that the official figures are BS.

This is consistent across Western economies:

View attachment 207870


Which are all highly indebted.

The $MOVE early last week signalled something:

View attachment 207873


Almost immediately liquidity was added:







So the bottom line is that the US (nor any Western economy) can tolerate any form of deflation or a real interest rate that is positive. The nominal rates that pertain are positive, but are still negative in real terms, just not negative enough to touch the level of debt.


Obviously because the US must inflate, gold will move significantly higher.


Looking at the past to ascertain the future:


View attachment 207883View attachment 207882View attachment 207881View attachment 207880


Gold declined when real rates provided a positive yield. Volcker could provide a positive real yield because debt was Debt/GDP


View attachment 207884

Was sitting at 40%.


So no positive real yields are possible. Inflation and lots of it, at an increasing pace is the order of the day.

The UE rate rising, just lights a fire under Trump and Bessent as deficits will explode.

The reason that Trump is fixated on gaining control of the Federal Reserve is that the Fed will need to move quickly to YCC to rein in the long end of the curve. Somewhere in the region of 2.5% with inflation running at 20%+. Which means that gold can rise at 20%+ per year going forward, more once the momo traders get involved.

Also, the Eurodollar thesis has now been highlighted by one of the top US think tank chaps as a risk to manage.

The whole 'tariff' argument/policy is a nothingburger.

The USD is hideously overvalued as against gold, THE RESERVE ASSET of the world.

China, Russia and India have all DEVALUED their currencies as against gold. The USD to be competitive and thus create trade, needs to devalue by +/- 40%. Possibly even slightly more.

The reason that it hasn't, is that Trump et al still harbour delusions that the USD still = King dollar. This fantasy is unravelling at an ever faster rate.

Eventually the US will devalue as against gold.

Which means another Sunday night massacre as the USD revalues against gold.

To rebalance the $300 Trillion in global debt, gold needs to revalue to +/- $75,000oz


jog on
duc

Click to expand...

Which means another Sunday night massacre as the USD revalues against gold.
Question for you Mr Le Duc
Revalues as devalues?we agree?
And how can the US do that technically?
i find it hard to see how to execute that step.
Just ordering a new gold standard peg if done overnight?
as Aussie, i would then buy as much gold on that day as possible currently 5k aud per ounce, maybe up to 10 or 15k aud whatever and would make a killing in usd term overnight.
Obviously gold then would revalue in all fiat currencies but this would take a while to adjust?
Could you not see that more on a gradual phasing?

qldfrog said:

Which means another Sunday night massacre as the USD revalues against gold.
Question for you Mr Le Duc
Revalues as devalues?we agree?
And how can the US do that technically?
i find it hard to see how to execute that step.
Just ordering a new gold standard peg if done overnight?
as Aussie, i would then buy as much gold on that day as possible currently 5k aud per ounce, maybe up to 10 or 15k aud whatever and would make a killing in usd term overnight.
Obviously gold then would revalue in all fiat currencies but this would take a while to adjust?
Could you not see that more on a gradual phasing?

Click to expand...

Bonjour QF,

First that should be $750,000oz for global debt. LOL. Missed out a zero.

I have previously posted the link to the Federal Reserve as to how that would be done.

Essentially the Fed decides a number and the Treasury simply can print that number of dollars as an asset. Every $4000 = $1 Trillion. So $28,000 gold essentially wipes the debt.

So on a Sunday night, the dollar devalues by adding another +/- $30 Trillion to the money supply. That $30 Trillion pays off the debt, thus putting $30 Trillion cash into the hands of the holders of the UST.

Of course the Fed would need to make a market in gold at $28,000oz, standing ready to buy or sell gold at that price. The money supply would go bonkers for a time, but eventually it would settle and US Debt/GDP would = 0%

You let the dollar eventually trade freely against gold like the Yuan, etc. This keeps all currencies roughly equivalent.


Once that is done, now you reshore your industrial base.

You can afford it because the dollar is now competitive with other currencies. At the moment with a grossly overvalued dollar, it just creates further problems.

Tariffs are a response, an imperfect response, to an overvalued dollar.

It's not far away from happening. Not if, but when and at what number!


jog on
duc

Smurf1976 said:

I'll avoid commenting on politics as such but my thinking is over the medium term higher inflation is fully intentional in order to devalue the debt in real terms. I see that as non-political in that I expect it'll happen regardless of which party supplies the US president.

Short term anything can happen but longer term I do think those buying (as distinct from trading) gold have thoughts along those lines in their mind. Just my

Click to expand...

The opposite is likely to be true as US national debt will actually increase with inflation, and then have to be be paid down at higher interest rates. The policy of the US Federal Reserve is to increase interest rates to combat rising inflation.

Ref: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/ame... remain low,government just print more money?

Good morning

Regional overview (World Gold Council published 5 September 2025 )​

Highlights​

• Global gold ETFs saw their third consecutive month of inflows in August, once again led by Western funds
• Their AUM rose to another month-end peak and collective holdings continued to rebound, although ended the month 6% shy of the record high
• Gold market trading volumes remained broadly unchanged, averaging US$290bn per day.

August in review​

Global physically backed gold ETFs attracted US$5.5bn in August, extending their inflow streak to three months (Chart 1). Similar to July, North American and European funds led global inflows while Asia and other regions saw mild outflows (Table 1). Nevertheless, the y-t-d inflow of US$47bn reached the second strongest on record after the peak of 2020.

August inflows and a further rise in the gold price pushed global gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) 5% higher to US$407bn, setting a new month-end record. Holdings continued to increase, rising 53t to 3,692t, the highest month-end value since July 2022 and 6% below the record of 3,929t, which was reached the first week of November 2020.

Chart 1: Risks channel August inflows to the West

Regional gold ETF flows and the gold price*


*As of 31 August 2025. Gold price based on the monthly average LBMA gold price PM in USD.
Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

Regional overview​

North American funds added US$4.1bn in August, the region’s third consecutive monthly inflow.

Continued strength in demand can be linked to:

• Persistent trade risk and broader market uncertainty
• The consensus short dollar trade, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold
• Lower rate expectations as the market digested Powell’s Jackson Hole comments as dovish.

The latter was arguably the most important catalyst into month-end. Outflows that had been seen in the days leading up to Jackson Hole reversed swiftly, as investors anticipated a September rate cut.

It is also notable that low-cost gold backed ETFs, often viewed as a proxy for long-term strategic positioning, are having their best year on record (Chart 2). We consider this to be a signal that – beyond short-term market noise – investors are steadily building safe-haven allocations in response to a backdrop of elevated risks.

European funds have now experienced inflows four months in a row, adding US$1.9bn in August. The UK, Switzerland, and Germany led the charge. During the month, the US imposed a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland, the highest on any developed nation.3 This sudden and unexpected hit has affected the country’s economic prospects, pushed up safe-haven needs among local investors and increased demand for gold.

German inflows may have also been supported by higher safe-haven demand as the country’s Q2 GDP growth was revised down further, sparking investor fears of recession.4 Meanwhile, with the euro and Swiss franc strengthening against the dollar, holdings in FX-hedged products also rose.

The UK also witnessed strong inflows in the month, likely buoyed by stagflation concerns – the country’s inflation rebounded while the US tariffs and a tax hike on employers – which could also push up prices further – cloud growth.

Asian flows flipped negative in August, losing US$495mn. China lost the most: continued equity strength, with the CSI300 Stock Index jumping 10% in August, kept diverting local investors away from gold. In contrast, India saw its fourth consecutive monthly inflow in August, supported by elevated safe-haven needs amid weak equities as well as ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks. But they were insufficient to offset Chinese outflows. Flows in other regions remained mildly negative, shedding US$50mn. Australian inflows were insufficient to offset South African outflows in the month.

Chart 2: North American low-cost funds see record y-t-d inflows

Annual net cumulative flows of North American low-cost funds*


*Data as of 31 August 2025. Our low-cost universe encompasses funds with management fees that are 20bps or less.
Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council


Kind regards
rcw1

btc to gold?

Interesting dive mostly into gold, but mentions the rise of platinum and silver also.

40 year gold seasonality chart shows gold price peaking in October.

"The ’Stealth’ Bull Market in Precious Metals Is Just Beginning"

frugal.rock said:

Interesting dive mostly into gold, but mentions the rise of platinum and silver also.

40 year gold seasonality chart shows gold price peaking in October.

"The ’Stealth’ Bull Market in Precious Metals Is Just Beginning"

The ’Stealth’ Bull Market in Precious Metals Is Just Beginning | Investing.com AU

Market Analysis by covering: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Gold Futures, Silver Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com AU.

au.investing.com

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what rock some analysts have been hiding under to say this is a stealth bull market. It was a breakout in Mar 23 and then really took off in Mar 24 and hasn't looked back. Happy they still think this is 'just the beginning'. Or, maybe that's a caution signal?

Emerging market central banks continue incremental buying in July​

The following emerging market central banks reported changes (of 1t or more) to their gold reserves in July as revealed by the World Gold Council:

• The National Bank of Kazakhstan added 3t, bringing its total y-t-d gold additions to 25t – the third largest central bank reported gold purchases so far, just behind Poland and Azerbaijan.
• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, People’s Bank of China and Czech National Bank each added 2t of gold. The appetite for these three central banks continues, with the pace of gold accumulation incremental yet steady. Turkey has been a net purchaser for 26 consecutive months – since June 2023 – while the Czech National Bank has bought gold for 29 consecutive months – since March 2023. The People’s Bank of China continued its gold buying for the ninth consecutive month, with purchases totalling 36t over this period.
• The National Bank of Poland remains the largest net purchaser of gold in 2025 with 67t y-t-d, though its gold reserves has been virtually unchanged since May 2025 (Chart 2).
• The Bank of Uganda announced a two-to-three-year pilot programme to purchase gold domestically from artisanal miners and aimed at building official reserves and reducing reliance on traditional foreign assets. The initiative follows the central bank’s announcement in 2024 of plans to begin domestic gold buying.

Footnotes​

Owing to IMF data released after the time of writing, which shows that Bank Indonesia reduced its gold reserves by 11 tonnes in July, our initial estimate for central bank net buying in July (10t) will be revised to zero based on available information. We will also note this revision in next month's blog and statistics.

Good afternoon
wow ... tis trying real hard to break on through to that other side of US $3600 ... how exciting

Yeah!!



Kind regards
rcw1

rcw1 said:

Good afternoon
wow ... tis trying real hard to break on through to that other side of US $3600 ... how exciting

Yeah!!

View attachment 208009View attachment 208010

Kind regards
rcw1

Click to expand...

I'd prefer to say that gold is trying real hard to break through $USD 4500.

$5000 is now my target. Now that the Chinese cousins have been shaken off $3333.33, the American cousins will push it in to the low mid 4000's and their rs economy, inflation, bonds and wobbly stock market will do the rest.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

I'd prefer to say that gold is trying real hard to break through $USD 4500.

$5000 is now my target. Now that the Chinese cousins have been shaken off $3333.33, the American cousins will push it in to the low mid 4000's and their rs economy, inflation, bonds and wobbly stock market will do the rest.

gg

Click to expand...

sure thing ... why the hell not bloke. Great springboard levels ... the longer it is maintained the better, goes without saying ...

Kind regards
rcw1

rcw1 said:

sure thing ... why the hell not bloke. Great springboard levels ... the longer it is maintained the better, goes without saying ...

Kind regards
rcw1

Click to expand...

Thank you @rcw1 for being such an agreeable crawler. The crate of Bollinger is on it's way. Nonetheless should one have a look at just the last 12 months it is not without the bounds of ( please don't say it ... please don't say possibility ) probability that gold could be in the low to mid $USD 4000's quite soon. Applying percentage gains rather than $ gains I find is becoming more useful for gold. Anyway a chart from over the past year.

Thank you @rcw1 for being such an agreeable crawler. The crate of Bollinger is on it's way. Nonetheless should one have a look at just the last 12 months it is not without the bounds of ( please don't say it ... please don't say possibility ) probability that gold could be in the low to mid $USD 4000's quite soon. Applying percentage gains rather than $ gains I find is becoming more useful for gold. Anyway a chart from over the past year.

So we have had a 50% gain over 12 months. A repeat of that will bring gold to $USD 5400 in Sept 2026.

gg

Good afternoon @Garpal Gumnut
Thank you for your kind comments. Bundaberg Rum would be much better bloke. If rcw1 maybe so bold as to say, rcw1 knows he isn't the sharpest tool in the shed ... but you have repeated a paragraph ... the only thing missing is capitals ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Anyways, rcw1 tips PoG to be US $4000 by Christmas 2025 ...

Have a very nice night

Kind regards
rcw1

Garpal Gumnut said:

Thank you @rcw1 for being such an agreeable crawler. The crate of Bollinger is on it's way. Nonetheless should one have a look at just the last 12 months it is not without the bounds of ( please don't say it ... please don't say possibility ) probability that gold could be in the low to mid $USD 4000's quite soon. Applying percentage gains rather than $ gains I find is becoming more useful for gold. Anyway a chart from over the past year.

Thank you @rcw1 for being such an agreeable crawler. The crate of Bollinger is on it's way. Nonetheless should one have a look at just the last 12 months it is not without the bounds of ( please don't say it ... please don't say possibility ) probability that gold could be in the low to mid $USD 4000's quite soon. Applying percentage gains rather than $ gains I find is becoming more useful for gold. Anyway a chart from over the past year.

So we have had a 50% gain over 12 months. A repeat of that will bring gold to $USD 5400 in Sept 2026.

gg


View attachment 208020

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Gold is good

The "News" section of kitco.com can be a bit predictable but I picked up on something in an article by Neils Christensen from yesterday.

I'm no expert on inflation, stagflation and long/short dated bonds and their correlation with each other and investor sentiment/gold. This was enlightening to me and I'll need to pick it apart bit by bit. The article is here and the quote is below.



Looking ahead, WGC analysts said that investment demand appears well-supported as stagflation fears start to percolate in global financial markets.
Currently, demand is being driven by the short end of the yield curve as the Federal Reserve looks poised to cut interest rates later this month. However, the WGC cautioned that investors should also pay attention to the long end of the curve.
“Gold’s sensitivity to U.S. real interest rates may increase as Western investors, particularly in the U.S., take a more active role amid softer demand from emerging markets,” the analysts said. “While long-term rates remain sticky, this reflects growing stagflation concerns—an environment that has historically supported gold. Among U.S. investor segments, ETF holders show the strongest response to stagflation risks and have accelerated investment in recent weeks, not just in the U.S. but also in Europe, where real rates are still rising. This suggests that risk-driven demand is offsetting rates-based headwinds.”

gg