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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Sean K said:
Sell please gg.
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I think it was when gold was lardarsing around $2500 that I last felt like this. I didn't sell and then some some silly small balled person like Kim, Biden, Putin or Mrs O'Toole down the road or one of the other paralytics running their different joints did something really stupid and lo ( I never use the word lo lightly ) and behold or should that beheld, the silly bugger took off to $3000.

So I'm hanging in. I might throw some rocks on Mrs O'Toole's roof tonight.

gg
 
TimeISmoney said:
That's my life story at the moment, GG, got booted from PNR @ $3.50 with stop loss.

Westpac trading is testing my limits; they blipped it down to 3.50 for a split second and took my holding.
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Mate, I know how you feel. Last night I was trading the NASDAQ and three of my weepers were sliding so I was feeling tired and said f this and sold them and got some sleep. They all went up 5-10% by this morning. It is not fair when nice people like us get punished.

gg
 
@Garpal Gumnut Hmm gg need or greed!!!
 
Last week, we discussed how the recent weakness in precious metals stocks was merely a short-term corrective wave, presenting an opportunity for those seeking to add exposure in a secular bull market.

The data showed over half of the Gold miners in our watchlist hitting new 4-week lows, but almost none breaking longer-term levels.

In other words, the selling was shallow, temporary, and happening against a backdrop of powerful uptrends.

The market wasted no time proving that point...

Buyers stepped in aggressively, erasing those short-term lows and sending many miners to fresh highs by week’s end.

That’s exactly what strong bull markets do - they refuse to give up ground for long.

It’s the same story we’ve been telling for over a year... precious metals are dominating the S&P 500 and every single one of its 11 sectors since

Gold’s historic breakout in March 2024.

The evidence keeps piling up.

Not only are the largest Gold miners breaking out to new all-time highs, but the smallest names in the space - the ones with the most juice - are just now starting to resolve multi-decade bases.

When the generals and the troops are both charging forward, that’s as bullish as it gets.

The generals are leading
​

Our custom Gold Rush Miners Index, which equally weights the world’s largest Gold mining stocks, recently resolved a multi-decade accumulation pattern and is blasting off to new all-time highs.

This is the type of structural resolution that doesn’t fizzle out in a few weeks - it tends to fuel multi-year (or multi-decade) advances.

Our custom index isn’t the VanEck Gold Miners ETF $GDX with its quirky weightings and hidden weaknesses - this is the clearest, purest picture of large-cap miner strength you’ll find.

It holds industry behemoths like Newmont $NEM, Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM, Franco-Nevada $FNV, and many more blue chips of the Gold mining world.

Large miners are often the first to move when a precious metals bull market enters a new leg higher. They have scale, liquidity, and institutional sponsorship.

When they’re making new highs like this, it’s a powerful signal that the underlying trend is robust.




Platinum’s 1-month lease rate has risen above 20% again.

Recall that platinum is a ‘Giffen Good’ whereby its demand initially increases with an increasing price.

Ultimately higher prices will bring increased supply to market.

However, that is still down the road.

​
Figure 1 - Platinum And Other Precious Metal Lease Rates At August 8, 2025; source: Bruce Ikemizu @BruceIkeGold


jog on
duc
 
Wow, seems like I can't see half the conversation in here, GG seems to have double blocked me. That function makes the conversation impossible to follow, count me out of this thread *shrug*
 
US back to monetary expansion:




China buying more gold:





Why?

Because at the margin China can buy commodities in Yuan and settle net-net in gold.




China has broken the 1971 petro-dollar system and is proceeding to crush the US.

The release valve for inflationary pressure this time is not oil, it is gold. Gold is far superior for this task as the POG rising hurts no-one. If we had $200 oil, mass starvation would ensue across half the planet.

Gold sits front and centre of the global reset.


BTC is a ponzi scheme, whose demise has been accelerated through the proliferation of BTC Treasury companies, led by the erstwhile Mr Saylor.

One of the features of BTC touted is its limited supply. But actually if you can divide it into unlimited decimal fractions, it is unlimited. With physical gold, after a certain point in weight, that's it, physically it can't get any lighter in weight and still be practical.

So I hold 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 BTC = $? LOL.

How does Joe Sixpack who is intellectually challenged to add 1 + 1 = 2 actually cope?


It's not the BTC that is particularly valuable, it is the payment rails that allow bypassing of the SWIFT system monopolised by US banks that holds the value. Anything can be tokenised and used. You can already do this with gold and silver.

jog on
duc
 
Given the Australian Gold industry has such a rich history of skewering themselves with their hedging books, should this be considered bullish or bearish?

Miners abandon their gold hedges in the hope of bigger windfalls

Bullish producers are rejecting the security of guaranteed prices and betting bullion will remain above $5000 an ounce. But some say that is a big risk.
www.afr.com
 
Sean K said:
Can someone please check their crystal ball, or throw a dart at the RIH gold predictor board, and tell me what's going to be the trigger for this sucker to break up?

TIA

View attachment 206353
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For what it's worth, the volume in this consolidation is reasonably high. I am looking for high-volume bars like the most recent red bar supply.The full length of the body of this bar is in control of price.The high being tested 2wice and the low 3 times.
This is a time to watch. When gold bugs hold (War news etc) buyers will seek out tightly held supply and the price will rise.
Peace and harmony and they will dump!

Hows that ?
 
Obviously money to be made with rumblinglys of war, but zilch if peace overcomes the conflict.
 
Sean K said:
Can someone please check their crystal ball, or throw a dart at the RIH gold predictor board, and tell me what's going to be the trigger for this sucker to break up?

TIA

View attachment 206353
Click to expand...

@Sean K I suppose go back to first principles as @tech/a suggested. Also it is in an uptrend so more likely to continue unless peace breaks out. There are enough nutters causing wars about atm with a fair few in the wings waiting their turn. So ... peace unlikely.

It could sell down a bit but more likely to continue up imo. A pause was necessary.

gg
 
tech/a said:
Peace and harmony and they will dump!
Click to expand...

I don't want to impose the commentators curse but.......

With Zelensky wearing as close as he has to a suit today hopefully the later option.

All the best

bux
 


Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...his-trade-fight-and-the-us-has-a-lot-to-learn

Under President Donald Trump, the US has launched a multipronged attack on China’s economy. Since Chairman Mao Zedong’s reign, China has seen it coming. A US system built around the ideal of openness and interdependence is facing off against a Chinese counterpart constructed as a fortress of control. Both sides have powerful resources. Only one has been preparing for the fight for decades.


Since the beginning of Trump’s first term in 2017, the US stance on China has swung from constructive if increasingly cautious engagement to something between fierce rivalry and outright hostility. China’s exports to the US face duties running close to 40%.


Supply of bleeding-edge semiconductors for China’s technology companies has been curtailed. The country’s science, technology, engineering and math students, once welcomed into US university labs, are checked at the border. The social media app TikTok, owned by Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd., is on a stay of execution in the US market.


The assumption in Washington is that China must now be floundering. Isn’t it hooked on US customers and technologies? It’s only a matter of time, surely, before President Xi Jinping picks up his red phone to call the White House and concede defeat.


The reality is rather different. It’s certainly true that Trump’s policy pivot is a problem for Beijing. Bloomberg Economics calculations show tariffs at the current levels would erase more than 50% of sales to the US. But it’s far from the end of China’s development story.


China’s exports to the US equal about 3% of gross domestic product—down from a peak of 7% two decades ago, after a campaign to diversify away from American consumers that’s been every bit as deliberate as US efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. That means even if half of China’s exports to the US get wiped out, the blow to the overall economy is just 1.5%. Not good news, to be sure, but far from a disaster.
Look at the data from China LOL.


And the FED:


With public debt at high levels, some governments have begun to explore financing additional expenditures without raising taxes while also not increasing public debt outstanding. One possibility is using proceeds from valuation gains on gold reserves, as has been floated in the U.S. and Belgium recently.1 For the U.S., this would involve revaluing the government's 261.5 million troy ounces in gold reserves—the largest gold reserves globally— from a statutory price of $42.22 per troy ounce to current market prices, which stand around $3300 per troy ounce.2


This note reviews the rare cases when countries used proceeds from valuation gains on gold and foreign exchange reserves. Over the past 30 years, only five countries have done so—Germany, Italy, Lebanon, Curacao and Saint Martin, and South Africa. What motivated the governments in these countries to use the proceeds from valuation changes in their official reserves? How were the revaluations implemented, and what were the outcomes? Revaluation proceeds have been either used by the central bank, as in the cases of Italy and Curacao and Saint Martin, or by the central government, as in South Africa, Lebanon, and Germany.


Central banks have used revaluation proceeds to offset operating losses and maintain net profits or minimize reported net losses.3 In Italy, revaluation proceeds covered a one-off loss for the conversion of a specific bond the Banca d'Italia owned. In Curacao and Saint Martin, the proceeds covered losses generated by a fall in interest income from holding relatively lower-yielding securities than previous years and realized valuation losses as the central bank rebalanced its portfolio. The use of revaluation proceeds temporarily boosted profits for both central banks, but, in Curacao and Saint Martin, the use was paired with other measures to genera additional income on a sustained basis.


Central governments have drawn on revaluation proceeds to retire existing debts, often in exceptional fiscal circumstances. While reducing the debt stock using revaluation proceeds improves the fiscal situation at the margin, drawing on revaluation proceeds may not address larger structural challenges. For example, Lebanon's debt-to-GDP ratio continued to increase even after revaluation proceeds were used to retire some existing debts.


Background: Accounting for gold and foreign exchange reserves on central bank balance sheets


Central banks use a wide range of accounting procedures to value the gold holdings on their balance sheets (Sullivan, 2018). … When gold is valued at historic cost (or modified historic cost), gold reserves can be revalued at market prices (or values closer to market prices) to generate revenues. When all official reserves are valued at market prices the unrealized valuation changes recorded in the revaluation account can be shifted to other parts of the balance sheet to generate funds, as discussed in more detail below.

Full:https://www.federalreserve.gov/econ...ns-the-international-experience-20250801.html

So why is the Fed talking about this?

Simply because if (WHEN) the FFR cuts come, the long end of the UST yield curve will RISE and not fall. However if Bessent can have +/- $1Trillion in the TGA, then he can say, I will not issue any new debt for 1yr, using the gold revaluation to fund the difference.



Re. the hot war in the Ukraine:

While it matters marginally whether it ends or not to the POG, what matters more is who wins.

Clearly the US is losing.

Far more important is the economic war with China which the US is definitely losing and which ultimately always decide the outcome of hot wars.

Gold is the choice of BRICS to replace UST as world reserve asset.

The price charts have no power to overcome those fundamentals. They follow the secular trend driven by those fundamentals.

The price chart only has value if you want to trade the wiggles, which is fine if that is what you want to do.

Fundamentally gold will run towards $20,000oz. Will it take time? Of course.

Global debt is north of $300 Trillion



Full:https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-debt-hits-record-over-324-trillion-says-iif-2025-05-06/





The debt based monetary system is badly broken.


Derivatives:




Full:https://www.isda.org/a/GpbgE/Key-Tr...vatives-Markets-in-the-First-Half-of-2024.pdf


Obviously you would think that in 2025 that number has grown larger. The whisper number is $1000 Trillion.


The only direction for gold is significantly higher.


jog on
duc
 
So, long term trend is up according the @ducati916 fundamentals, so could break up from here or keep bouncy bouncy* sideways or even correct down before it continues upward move, but the move is longer term up.

Need supply to disappear for @tech/a which could be caused by geopolitics and supply might increase if peace breaks out. I think @Garpal Gumnut agrees. Zelinsky's suit still looked like war dress to me @bux2000.

It seems we need a confluence of factors to break this sideways bouncy bouncy move to me.

A geopolitical security surprise for the worse.
Central banks announcement of massive purchases.
USD weakness.
A very large Indian wedding season.
Gold re-valued by the US to pay off some debt.
Rumours of a gold backed currency.

And, possibly an interest rate decision beneficial for gold.

Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech could be next catalyst for gold and silver prices – Saxo Bank’s Hansen

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com

(Kitco News) –Gold and silver continue to trade in tight ranges as traders await the next catalyst for price action – and Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech from Jackson Hole on Friday is the next potential trigger, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

“In recent weeks, some key U.S. economic data have surprised to the downside, while a stronger-than-expected PPI print reminded markets that inflationary pressures may still emerge from Trump's tariff policies,” Hansen wrote on Tuesday. “While that print temporarily cooled expectations for a larger or faster series of rate cuts, the market is still pricing a high probability of a 25 bp cut at the September FOMC meeting, but the path beyond remains uncertain.”

“Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks will therefore be scrutinized for any shift in tone, especially on the Fed’s tolerance for inflation if growth continues to soften.”

*TM @finicky
 
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