Thanks @Sdajii . I like the concept of Schrodinger’s Gold which is new to me. Historically gold was kept hidden from the masses only appearing when weapons needed to be bought or men paid for war. Nowadays the payments for war are run off spreadsheets so the Fort Knox as you allude to, could be anywhere, leased, mortgaged, stolen or turned in to paper.Having an audit done is only going to restore confidence to the market if the gold is actually all there. I give it a greater than 50% chance that it's not, and that becoming public knowledge would be catastrophic for the markets.
It really says a lot about this world when an underground vault containing Shrodinger's gold which either way will not be used for anything other than sitting there doing nothing, will cause such such a dramatic outcome if it is observed.
It is what it is, but the audits not happening for so long make me think the gold is gone. No one is ever going to steal it with a direct guns blazing robbery so stories like 'thieves may learn the layout if someone goes in to audit' are very silly excuses. Does anyone genuinely not see that a very, very lengthy period of 'That extraordinarily valuable stuff I'm guarding is totally still there, but I won't allow you to check, just believe me' is reason to think it's likely not there?
Thanks @Sdajii . I like the concept of Schrodinger’s Gold which is new to me. Historically gold was kept hidden from the masses only appearing when weapons needed to be bought or men paid for war. Nowadays the payments for war are run off spreadsheets so the Fort Knox as you allude to, could be anywhere, leased, mortgaged, stolen or turned in to paper.
gg
Pen a letter to the WSJ, I’m sure they would print it. Let me know should you do. It describes exactly the situation we are in without having to get a PhD in the Philosophy of Science or Finance. This is the story of my life, never a genius nor achieved great things, but close to those who did, which is really just as good.Glad you liked it, I just made it up on the spot while typing. Quite proud of it actually, I think I'll go buy myself an ice-cream as a reward. No sprinkles though because in my haste I misspelled Schrodinger; it did look wrong but I didn't bother to check.
You make me blush Garpalnever a genius nor achieved great things, but close to those who did,
i am not sure about ( totally ) goneIt is what it is, but the audits not happening for so long make me think the gold is gone.
It's probably not *all* gone and sure, what's been removed has likely been replaced with fake bars rather than leaving empty space.i am not sure about ( totally ) gone
but i suspect there are major anomalies , stolen gold , maybe , impure gold , probably some ( too many bars to test properly in earlier times )
now the question is , IF there are glaring anomalies , how long have some known about them
and also there is a major risk that others have ownership claims over some or all of the gold
I so like the " truth over anything", and the price of my goldIt's probably not *all* gone and sure, what's been removed has likely been replaced with fake bars rather than leaving empty space.
My guess it that those at the top have known for a long time and would rather leave it in the too hard basket, under the rug, waiting for some time in the distant future for it to be discovered, hence the lack of audits and transparency.
Given the fallout which would follow a public declaration of it being missing, I'd prefer it remain as Schroginger gold than a publicly observable audit. Sure, the price of gold would probably rally, and I have absolutely no doubt it would rally super hard in American dollars, but I'm not sure it would make any of our lives better.
I don't think most people realise how much their lives depend on the USA remaining in #1 position, or if they collapse and the current #2 runs the show, what level of genocidal horror they will experience. I don't especially like the USA, but the alternative is worse than our worst nightmares.
We might rename the next black swan event the black catmissed the umlaut... ...Schrödinger
I liked it, too. Very good. pay that one gif
| We've been talking about the odds of shiny rocks outpacing stocks — and it's a theme that’s as consistent as it is powerful in every precious metals bull market. Another classic twist in these cycles is mining stocks outperforming gold. And here's the kicker: we believe that’s about to happen. Plus, we expect the entire precious metals complex to move explosively. We haven't seen that surge yet, but we're on the lookout. Now, take a look at palladium futures. The setup is as juicy as anything out there. Check out this chart: |
| Click the chart to enlarge it. |
| On the chart, we've highlighted key moments over the past decade when commercial hedgers were flat — historically a fantastic time to buy. Conversely, when they hit an extreme net-short position, it’s typically a red flag to consider selling. So, what about now? Right now, the commercials have never owned as much palladium as they do today. That tells us one thing: they believe the product is cheap. With palladium down over 70% from its 2022 peak, the discount is undeniable. But here's the nuance — we're not jumping in just because of the discount. The real question is: How do we time our entry? We're waiting for the commercial hedgers to flip back to a net-short position, and that moment will trigger our entry. It could be this month, this quarter, or even later this year — we don't know for sure, and that's why we're staying flexible. That said, when the commercials turn net-short again, we suspect palladium futures will be a screaming buy. |
LBMA data indicate that 1,055 tonnes (34M oz.) of the gold held in London - see the green shaded area in Figure 1 - is the ‘float’ of gold in the City of London’s gold market.So a 6M oz. draw to date and an anticipated 14M oz. draw of gold bars in total from London vaults over a estimated 3 to 4 month delivery period has jammed the gears of the London gold market.
But what about incremental gold delivery demand today, next week, next month, etc. from the estimated total 400M oz. of claims standing in the cash market at the beginning of 2025?
The entire world has seen what has happened and we can anticipate that further holders of the excellent London spot/cash gold promissory notes are also going to ask for delivery.
And the physical gold leased from the BoE is also supposed to be returned with interest.
Figure 2 - Agri Commodities vs Gold; source: gold.topdowncharts.com / Callum ThomasWe can see in Figure 2 that the decades of central bank currency inflation has been sweeping into gold and food (‘agri’) commodities on a secular basis. It wasn’t Trump.
Food commodities represent a small percent of the world’s financial markets and as capital continues to move from intangible investment assets, into which monetary inflation was temporarily diverted, and into real goods like gold and food stuffs, we will increasingly see food poverty and famine show its face - in the West.
The rigged gold and silver markets are about to explode higher in price as they release from the multi-decade market fraud- and they will have company.
Well Said
Step 3: Ride It Until It Stops – The key to catching outlier trades? You stay in the damn trend.
The biggest mistake traders make? Cutting winners early and holding onto losers like idiots.
You want to win in this game? Stop making excuses. Stop overcomplicating it. Follow price. Get paid.
@mullokintyre With The trumpet's version of events re Russia v Ukraine.Interesting that some folks think that Trump failed to win over Zelensky.
I would have thought it was the other way around.
Trump has no need of Zelensky or Ukraine, however, Ukraine and Zelensky have a great need for the support from Trump and the USA.
Mick
I think you just miss the 8 years@mullokintyre With The trumpet's version of events re Russia v Ukraine.
Ukraine is the aggressor and invaded Russia, his now newest and greatest mate, Putrid.
I seem to be missing something from 3 years ago.
now the commentators i listen to had already cast doubt on the Ukraine rare earth minerals ( still in territory controlled by Ukraine ) BUT did note the deal now includes the Ukrainian oil and gas resources ( which are largely undeveloped ) AND infrastructure ( probably the ports )Not that it's important now that Trump got his knickers in a knot over his failure to win-over Zelenskyy a few hours ago, but the reports about a so-called $500B rare earths package being a bargaining chip in these peace talks are based on zero geological data.
POG looks like bouncing back after the market decided Trump's style of negotiation failed to work on person with a functional brain.
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