Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Hum maybe my paper gold more than the physical ...
Hello qldfrog
havn't spoken with you for long time... when rcw1 was over in Perth to watch a SoO game last year... think it was... PoG wasn't too bad so went to the Perth Mint, doing the tourist thingy .. did buy some physical, they gave rcw1 some paperwork too.... as expected, hoping the gold wasn't watered down ha ha ha ha ha
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
Back on 29/1/23 I made the following post, where I called for the POG to hit 1910 by 3/2/23 and then to hit 1877 by 10/2/23 – a copy of that post is below…..
View attachment 153469

Today's chart shows that the POG (almost) hit those 2 points……

From a ST TA Perspective, now, as at 3.30pm 23/2/23 the TA for POG is at a crucial turning point, could turn up, could turn down ……

The current SP is at that Benchmark Candle Formation turning point…. See the chart below and the notes on that chart for my ST Call on the POG ..…..

Remember to DYOR……

View attachment 153470
My last calls were on 29/1/23 & again on 23/2/23 for Gold to hit 1877or1875 on 13/3/23 or 14/3/23...... BINGO, Gold hit both 1875 & 1877 on 13/3/23..... So despite my three 0.01c errors on PLS last week, "Calls CAN be Calculated Exactly" by using what I would refer to as "Advanced TA"......
20230314 XAUUSD Cht Correct Call.jpg
I might also point out that most Technical Indicators, particularly for the XAUUSD are looking very sick atm......
Bit too much noise on the horizon for me to calculate exact calls (noise such as Bank Bailouts, Aust Banks Closing Branches, and the percieved Flight to Gold)...... So, I'm Crawling back into my Cave Now.......
Re: GOLD Where is it heading

I believe Gold could go either way. It has certainly been making ground on the back of global uncertainty with all this terrorism business.

And I agree that higher inflation would definitely have a positive impact on the price of gold.

But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.

I'm largely undecided although if I was a betting man I'd say it'll see US$410 again before it sees US$350.

Anyway, here's the chart.

Would love to hear some other views.
Hi Joe
I found this Post of yours by accident and found it Spot- On even today
Funny How Nothing has Changed in almost 2 Decades

The Only thing I'like to add is that Nowadays we have ETF's and can choose Gold Futures
and ETF's based on either the Gold Price GLD or Gold Miners Price GDX

I have Found that The GDX out performs The GLD by ~3 times in Both Directions N or S Unfortunately
eg: I Hoisted the GDX last night
GDX +6.99%
GLD + 2.29%

Salute and Gods' speed
So AUD Gold price surged to about $2,930 overnight.. before settling a tick under $2,900

Great news that oil price dropped another -4.4% overnight too as in turn, reduces energy/fuel costs for Gold sector stocks ?
AUDPOG and PMGOLD longer term looks pretty good except for that Mar-Jul 22 period. Hopefully 2800 and $28 forms as support.

Unfortunately this strength probably means the rest of the market is looking scary.

Screenshot 2023-03-16 at 9.28.37 am.png
Screenshot 2023-03-16 at 9.29.50 am.png
So AUD Gold price surged to about $2,930 overnight.. before settling a tick under $2,900

Great news that oil price dropped another -4.4% overnight too as in turn, reduces energy/fuel costs for Gold sector stocks ?
Be interesting to see if that 4.4% drop relates to a price drop in the fuel pricing.
Gold Prices Remain Volatile: The yellow metal had a lackluster 2022, having lost 0.3% of its value through the year. This was mainly due to a strong U.S dollar and the aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S Fed. Prices had somewhat regained ground in December 2022, supported by the opening of China’s economy and a less hawkish tone by the Fed’s Jerome Powell. The momentum continued through January 2023, with the yellow metal crossing attaining a high of $1,959 an ounce — the highest level since April 2022 on the back of a weaker U.S dollar. However, gold prices lost steam in February, as strong U.S. economic data propelled yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Gold prices have recently recouped some of the loss and are currently at around $1,897 per ounce. This was triggered by the fall in the value of the U.S. dollar after the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Gold is gaining on speculation that the banking crisis will lead the Federal Reserve to take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening. Investors are also on the lookout for the upcoming U.S. inflation data before the Fed decides on monetary policy. Aided by this uptick, gold prices have notched a gain of 3% so far this year. Overall, this volatility in gold prices remains a concern.

Labor Issues, High Costs Persist: The industry continues to face a shortage of skilled workforce, causing a spike in wages. The industry players are persistently grappling with escalating production costs, including electricity, water and materials and supply-chain issues. Since the industry cannot control gold prices, it focuses on improving sales volume and operating cash flow and lowering unit net cash costs. The industry participants are opting for alternate energy sources, such as solar or wind farms, to minimize fuel-price volatility and secure supply. Miners are committed to cost-reduction strategies and digital innovation to drive operating efficiencies.

India and China to Support Demand: India and China together account for around 50% of consumer gold demand. A pick-up in demand in China is expected this year, aided by fewer COVID disruptions, a cautious economic rebound and a gradual pick-up in consumer confidence. Retail demand in India is expected to improve on improved consumer confidence and pent-up demand. The demand for physical gold is seasonally higher in the later part of the year, aided by the festival and wedding season in India

Impending Demand and Supply Imbalance to Support Prices: Depleting resources, declining supply in old mines and lack of new mines remain inherent threats to the industry. Due to the scarcity of discoveries and exhaustive existing resources, miners prefer building up reserves through acquisitions rather than digging new ones that are inherently risky and capital-intensive. On the demand side, the use of gold in energy, healthcare and technology is rising. The yellow metal has long been considered a safe-haven investment in financial or political uncertainty. So, there will be an eventual demand-supply imbalance that is likely to drive gold prices. This bodes well for the industry in the long haul.

Industry Versus S&P 500 & Sector​

The Mining-Gold Industry has outperformed the S&P 500 Index, as well as the Basic Material sector, in a year. The stocks in the industry have collectively gained 11% compared with the broader sector’s gain of 8.1% and the S&P 500’s decline of 2.5%.

Gold is saving my arrse at the moment. I'm on the verge of deploying significant cash into a long term gold break up, but not yet.
Hello Sean K
rcw1 is pretty excited about what is happening with yellow at the moment, just like that and, snap one's fingers ... all over red rover... See what it does then,
Have a very nice weekend,

Kind regards
Nudging $1950 US. Going to have to grab it by the bright gold nose and pull it across into the springboard $1955 US zone and ultimately into higher and better and unprecedented things :)

Kind regards