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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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R* is the Fed’s ‘neutral rate’.

There has been much discussion as to where exactly that R* rate is. The following chart suggests that in reality it is a negative real rate…not a positive one.

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 5.05.59 AM.png


The higher the debt, the lower R* must be.

With Treasury signalling a further $3T deficit, the Fed. is already at or past R* and the pivot becomes a necessity or outright default ensues.

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 5.53.32 AM.png

Gold (much) higher.

The Fed. either pivots and inflates or the US defaults on debt. Either outcome sees gold significantly higher.

jog on
duc
 

Garpal Gumnut

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The Pommies who have not fled to Singapore and the Chinese Gold traders in Hong Kong seem a bit agitated and bullish on Gold this afternoon.

I wonder if Little Trudeau was told something by Ole Xi in relation to opening up The Chinese Circus for business again.

New Year approaches and once the masses get out of their high rises it will be down to the jewellers and gold shops for pressies for the rellies, and there are a lotta rellies.

1668668788284.png

gg
 
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Gold price analysis/outlook etc. discussed from 9:00 onwards


Hi @Telamelo , thanks for putting these up on the site, I like this guy, he has an understanding of how the markets move. GLD is moving down at the moment and I'm thinking this will continue for at least another two trading days. I'll be looking to see how it reacts to the support zone just below, if this zone holds the market then this may give me a place to re-enter the market for another leg up.
1668916836581.png
 
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If Gold holds above $USD1735 in Sydney and Hong Kong today with all the kerfuffle over BTC my expectation is that it will test $USD1780 in London and New York this evening and overnight.

gg

Interesting take GG, I'm pretty much the opposite (in general). I often dread the Asian buying because it nearly always gets faded by the other sessions.

At least as far as I can tell, despite all the conspiracy theories and LBMA OTC still being the most liquid market, NY session and therefore COMEX futures still sets the marginal daily price.

Usually you can see price increases that tend to stick are when, for whatever reason, Asia sells and offers some marginal cheapness to London/NY to bid.

Fading the Asian session is common across all futures markets, not just gold.
 
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It's not the end of the month yet, but we're close and that means it's a good time to look at the monthly chart to see where we might end up.


1669266826356.png

I don't think it's looking very good, but there's still about a week worth of time for price action to try and repair the monthly bar.

The previous monthly close is at 2553...if you had looked at this chart earlier in the month you would've thought no problems closing above it.

Now it's starting to look a bit more concerning that we could actually have a down month or (IMHO) just as bad, a complete rejection of the entire months price action if we close at 2553.

Even closes below 2593 would still be a rejection of every single test of monthly closing swing highs and the previous monthly high.

Looking back as far as 2020, you can see that price has been extremely well supplied anywhere north of exactly where we are now.
 
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I agree with @InsvestoBoy that it's not showing strength on the monthly time frame, in fact I'm not seeing strength on the weekly or daily at the moment, I'm hoping that things may change by the weekend, we will see. @Sean K , the crypto people may be a bit gun shy and come into gold after it starts to move, just a thought. I just read what the market is doing in the hear and now but I think it's important to be aware of what factors are behind a potential move in the market.
 
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Gold stocks have started to rally (look bullish) so that's my pre-emptive signal to increase my exposure to Gold stocks such as the likes of RMS, EVN, BC8 etc.

P.S. NST share price already gained $4 off it's low's - so suggests to me that the tide has certainly turned with Gold back in favour/back in the limelight imo as expecting Gold to do very well in 2023 (on lower inflationary fears/weaker USD etc.).
 
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Gold stocks have started to rally (look bullish) so that's my pre-emptive signal to increase my exposure to Gold stocks such as the likes of RMS, EVN, BC8 etc.

P.S. NST share price already gained $4 off it's low's - so suggests to me that the tide has certainly turned with Gold back in favour/back in the limelight imo as expecting Gold to do very well in 2023 (on lower inflationary fears/weaker USD etc.).

To me the move in gold miners is just a bounce from quite oversold conditions, no signs of strength yet.

I only own one, about 1-2% of my total net worth, AEM on the NYSE.

I drew some hypothetical sketches of return paths that would make me feel like there was some bullishness in the price...you can see all of them involve not going back down from where we are right now.

1669327448851.png

My entry top ticked one of the previous highs at 46 in August or so, preceding a nice -18% drawdown, so don't get me wrong I am happy to see the current rally, but any retracement from current levels would suggest a return to weakness.

Just my 2c but not out of the woods yet.
 

Sean K

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I agree with @InsvestoBoy that it's not showing strength on the monthly time frame, in fact I'm not seeing strength on the weekly or daily at the moment, I'm hoping that things may change by the weekend, we will see. @Sean K , the crypto people may be a bit gun shy and come into gold after it starts to move, just a thought. I just read what the market is doing in the hear and now but I think it's important to be aware of what factors are behind a potential move in the market.

Yes, plus USD has been coming off the past couple of weeks against just about all currencies.
 
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Yes, plus USD has been coming off the past couple of weeks against just about all currencies.
Trouble is if USD goes down vs AUD, the usd gold has to increase just as much just to remain stable in aud..
Unless you just look at your usd portfolio value.
My usd portfolio increased this week but in aud .i lose...
 

Sean K

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Trouble is if USD goes down vs AUD, the usd gold has to increase just as much just to remain stable in aud..
Unless you just look at your usd portfolio value.
My usd portfolio increased this week but in aud .i lose...

Yeah, a trade off. I wonder if ASX gold equities respond to movement in the USD price or AUD price? I'm sure some sort of data run study has looked at it, but my perception is that gold stocks move on USD price for some reason. Might not have been watching the AUD price enough to get a proper feel for it.
 
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