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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Discussion in 'Commodities' started by guycharles, Jun 24, 2004.

  1. BlindSquirrel

    BlindSquirrel

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    welp... so much for that! Seems to be a nice pennant forming
     
  2. BlindSquirrel

    BlindSquirrel

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    ... So who wants to subscribe to an Inverse-BlindSquirrel index??
    The pennant has broken out on the wrong side so I won't be taking the short side on that one for now.
     
  3. explod

    explod explod

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    Good consolidation in my view, overall trend is up, US Economists want a lower US dollar for trade which pumps gold up. We'll see:-

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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  5. Ann

    Ann

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    Trotting out my now ancient quarterly chart for Gold, it has failed the $1325 yet again for the 23rd quarter from September 2013. This is going to make the POG a touch weaker I should think, if the past is any indication.

    Gold quarterly 31.3.19.png
     
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  6. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    It has to test the $1300 to $1375 area. That will be the 3d attempt for gold to break out of its strong resistance.
     
  7. rederob

    rederob

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    A $75 range is not a breakout.
    Until $1350 is breached, gold will keep meandering through a series of higher lows.
     
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  8. explod

    explod explod

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    Gold has seen higher lows continue since October last year and looks overall bullish in my view.

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    Hi Readeob: Thank you for the kind response. Trading below $1300 again.
     
  10. Ann

    Ann

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    I read how Russia and China are lifting their gold reserves for whatever reason. Naturally the gold bug sites are saying it is their distrust of the US Fiat which is the cause. Might be but it might also be that both of these countries are expecting something to happen to their own currencies. Don't know just musing, could be completely off the mark.
    When I went to check on how much they had actually increased their holdings by, I looked down the list of countries and what each were holding in Tonnes. What left me shocked was Canada, it has gone from 46.2 tonnes to 0.... zero .....nada! What does this mean? One wonders if they will simply requisition gold from their miners if they need it? I have nooo idea. It is an interesting mystery worth watching IMO. :)

    Hopefully this will link to the site where I got the Gold Reserves.
     
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  11. barney

    barney

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    Didn't know that …. quite amazing.

    I guess the Canadian Government figure they can simply slip up to the Yukong with a bucket and spade and dig a few thousand ounces up whenever they need them:p:D
     
  12. Ann

    Ann

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    I find it amazing and I haven't read a word about it. I know there are some funds including Steve Eisman, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, a protagonist in Michael Lewis’ The Big Short are shorting Canada at the moment.
    (Lewis' Big Short is a great book, can recommend it.)
    More likely they will go to Barrick Gold in Toronto and say "sorry fellas we need all your gold, hand it over!" :D
     
  13. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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  14. Ann

    Ann

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    OMG I am so glad I am just a simple know-nothing prat.....WTF! I need a ROFL on the floor emote.

    Canada's explanation for the sell-off is reasonable enough: actual bullion bars cannot be liquidated as easily as, say, government bonds. And over the long term, central banks and governments have generally gotten a better return by investing in safe assets such as US Treasuries.

    Say after me.....FIAT ROCKS!
     
  15. Ann

    Ann

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    OK, let's try this post again. I was being totally sarcastic which translates poorly online and did not add value to this thread.

    That was a brilliant find Joules, well done!

    I am not an economist and may not have this quite right but as I see it gold is like a net tangible asset backing for a country. A country may have enormous Gross assets such as gold, oil, minerals in the ground but these are not realized, so of little value. Gold bullion is a real and tangible asset. It is a kind of guarantee against their fiat currency that regardless of the movement of their fiat currency, gold will have a fixed value or perhaps I should say a 'knowable value' at any given time.

    What Canada has done is swap a tangible asset for debt. US debt to be exact. Now Canada's fiat currency is being backed by another fiat currency. The debt will vary in value over time and will not be an easy 'asset' to asses. However the comment made....
    "actual bullion bars cannot be liquidated as easily as, say, government bonds." ......begs the question, why do they need to liquidate their gold?

    The only advantage I could see for Canada on the short term is an income stream of dividends. Surely they can't be that broke they would need a bit of debt interest?

    The quote finishes by saying "And over the long term, central banks and governments have generally gotten a better return by investing in safe assets such as US Treasuries."

    So are they saying gold is not a 'safe asset'! Barrick Gold and Kitco are both Canadian companies and may have given the Canadian government some inside information about the demise of gold? Who knows? Well someone does but it isn't me.

    It is all so very interesting.
     
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  16. barney

    barney

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    LOL ….. Kind of good that a Commentator would be prepared to write that just the same:eek: ……

    Don't know him … don't follow him, but respect just he same:D
     
  17. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    According to analysts there is no real reason to hold gold as an asset for any modern nation and keeping gold is just tradition. Half of those reserves were sold by 1985, and then almost all the rest were sold through the 1990s up to 2002. By 2017, Canada’s reserves were down to just three tonnes. They say there are better assets to focus on, and this move has been called “wise and astute” by analysts.

    Canada is not alone. There are countries with zero GOLD. Analysts were talking about gold is going to $500 & $300.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...l-off-its-gold-reserves-to-the-retail-market/
     
  18. Ann

    Ann

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    I hadn't seen that MW, who and when were saying that? I have only ever seen it as being classed as a 'safe haven' and part of a 'balanced portfolio' of investments.
    I may sound like I am interrogating you like a gold bug but my feelings are that commodities in general will fall. I only have charts to suggest that to me so may be quite wrong. However your comments were very interesting. I have seen gold rise when markets fall. I am wondering if there will be a disconnect from gold and if so I wonder what is likely to take its place? There always needs to be a viable option for a market fall investment to hop into. Government bonds are one way but historically it has been gold.
     
  19. rederob

    rederob

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    If nations want to rely on paper because they are good money managers, then gold holds no value in their eyes.
    The "value" argument existed well before I started looking at gold markets in the 1990.
    Yet many nations are continuing to add to their gold reserves.
    China appears to be offsetting US Treasury declines and is buying physical gold again.
    A lot more relevant data are found here.
     
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  20. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    You know Ann there were so many predictions, studies on commodities, stocks and property. If I am right few analysts in 2016 said “sell everything ahead of stock market crash”. Similarly, in another study in 2015 they said that the recent decline in gold prices is just the beginning. They predicted gold could plunge to $350. I t dropped to closer to $1000 and now it is back to $1300 levels.

    Gold’s fair value is $825 according to the formula proposed in Erb and Harvey’s study in 2015.Whenever gold does eventually drop to fair value, it drop to a much lower value. He calculates that, if gold drops below fair value to the same extent it did in the mid-1970s and the late 1990s, bullion would trade around $350 an ounce. Analysts said gold have existed for thousands of years but for many investors gold has only recently become a tradable investment opportunity and the real price of gold is currently high compared to history.

    They said Investors in gold face two choices
    1. History
    2. This time is different

    When I was in another forum one gentleman told me to by something in Australia which is not physical gold and something like Gold Certificate long ago.I can’t remember what it is.
     
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