Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Sean K · 1 December 2007

wavepicker said:
Hello explod,

can you please elaborate, why is there good support at this level, is it of any significance?

Cheers

There's not support at 780-90 ish?

Breaking 790 ish may confirm a double top, sending it to 740 by my guestimate.

As always, no TA will be proven correct until after the fact.

Prove, disprove, prove, disprove, that you're too late.

Each to their own.

explod · 1 December 2007

wavepicker said:
Hello explod,

can you please elaborate, why is there good support at this level, is it of any significance?

Cheers

Since October 29 the US$780 level has been tested on 6 occasions, this is the 7th so a break below it would be significant.

After the all time high on the 25th April 1980 the US$780 level was a point of resistance on 3 occasions that year. In my view the consolidation above this level SHOULD remain firm.

wavepicker · 1 December 2007

kennas said:
There's not support at 780-90 ish?

Breaking 790 ish may confirm a double top, sending it to 740 by my guestimate.

As always, no TA will be proven correct until after the fact.

Prove, disprove, prove, disprove, that you're too late.

Each to their own.

If that is the case then, it's been disproven hasn't it??? Gold broke 780 last run down with a low of 772??

wavepicker · 1 December 2007

explod said:
Since October 29 the US$780 level has been tested on 6 occasions, this is the 7th so a break below it would be significant.

After the all time high on the 25th April 1980 the US$780 level was a point of resistance on 3 occasions that year. In my view the consolidation above this level SHOULD remain firm.

Fair enough explod, but as mentioned in the last post to kennas $780 got broken on the last leg down($772.65), so what now??

I tend to favour Nicks evaluation of the situation quite favourably.

Cheers

explod · 1 December 2007

wavepicker said:
Fair enough explod, but as mentioned in the last post to kennas $780 got broken on the last leg down($772.65), so what now??

I tend to favour Nicks evaluation of the situation quite favourably.

Cheers

Yep, see your point. I do not factor intra day price levels. To me the closing price of US$783 indicates the support has held.

Although I day trade, rarely do I open and close a trade within days as I suspect many of you do. So from that point our perspective may be different.

For Nick, I missed an answer to his quiry on my position. I am long physical bullion (a 2 year position now) and I reduced half of my long trade positions (in gold stocks) last Thursday.

I try to let the market tell me where to go. (W D GANN)

Whiskers · 3 December 2007

Kauri said:
No guarantees but if my E/W holds up she should be looking at the low 770's... initially anyway...
Cheers
.........Kauri

I got another bearish pennant on the hourly suggesting $762.

Can't see further ahead than that yet other than the weekly engulfing bearish candle which suggests a generally down week.

Sean K · 3 December 2007

wavepicker said:
If that is the case then, it's been disproven hasn't it??? Gold broke 780 last run down with a low of 772??

It's only just slipped through briefly on Friday by my charts, so it hasn't really been disproven yet. Might depend on a definition of 'broken' even if it did go to $772 as well. Was that an 'inta day' price? Futures, or spot? I've found intraday prices less reliable for support and resistance. I wouldn't call and exact $780 price as the breakdown point either. I think the low in the trough was actually $776.50, so, thereabouts. The double top, still looks a possibility to me. Of course, just a probability. I'm still a long term investor in a couple of gold stocks. Whatever happens to the price between now and the Fed meeting, I expect them to cut again which should push the price back up, unless it's already factored in. I don't think 50 could be factored in, so there may be more upside in that eventuation.

wavepicker · 3 December 2007

kennas said:
It's only just slipped through briefly on Friday by my charts, so it hasn't really been disproven yet. Might depend on a definition of 'broken' even if it did go to $772 as well. Was that an 'inta day' price? Futures, or spot? I've found intraday prices less reliable for support and resistance. I wouldn't call and exact $780 price as the breakdown point either. I think the low in the trough was actually $776.50, so, thereabouts. I'm no way up to the stage, like you might be, of precise prices and times, and I'm yet to actually see it being done consistantly by anyone before the fact. The double top, still looks a possibility to me. Of course, just a probability. I'm still a long term investor in a couple of gold stocks. Whatever happens to the price between now and the Fed meeting, I expect them to cut again which should push the price back up, unless it's already factored in. I don't think 50 could be factored in, so there may be more upside in that eventuation.

The price I quoted was spot. I am not a big fan "holding/breaking" of so called support levels of prices as many of these on many occasions they end up as false breaks.

Looks like Gold is heading lower from here, by how much no sure. Double tops rarely stop uptrends for good and I would expect this high to be broken even marginally.

Will be interesting to see what happens from here, if this market goes into a sideways consolidation, then this could precede the last push up before a major correction but not the long term bull trend.

Sean K · 3 December 2007

Just Asian trade, but has bounced off $780 ish for the minute. Obviously needs some higher lows and highs to get out of this downward/sideways move. Factors effecting the price have turned the other way of course so a couple of things need to change in my mind for POG to resume the uptrend. I think a 25 point cut is almost factored in right now, so a 50 point cut will boost POG. Oil has come off the boil and if anything else occurs to reduce supply then that will add to support. And then there's geopolitics. Need Iran to wave a nuke about or something similar. If we get the perfect storm, POG will be breaking all time highs again.

Whiskers · 3 December 2007

Hasn't broke down yet, but still trading pretty much in a bear flag channel.

I think on the fundamentals it's inevitable that it will soon though. Just might take another couple of revised down numbers from the US to do it.

explod · 3 December 2007

Whiskers said:
Hasn't broke down yet, but still trading pretty much in a bear flag channel.

I think on the fundamentals it's inevitable that it will soon though. Just might take another couple of revised down numbers from the US to do it.

If the numbers go down in the US the dollar will contiue its fall which will drive up gold. Have I missed something here.

Kauri · 3 December 2007

kennas said:
Just Asian trade, but has bounced off $780 ish for the minute. Obviously needs some higher lows and highs to get out of this downward/sideways move. Factors effecting the price have turned the other way of course so a couple of things need to change in my mind for POG to resume the uptrend. I think a 25 point cut is almost factored in right now, so a 50 point cut will boost POG. Oil has come off the boil and if anything else occurs to reduce supply then that will add to support. And then there's geopolitics. Need Iran to wave a nuke about or something similar. If we get the perfect storm, POG will be breaking all time highs again.

Hi Kennas,
Early days yet but I'm with you... until I'm not that is.. good being a tad contrarian..
Cheers
.........Kauri

explod · 3 December 2007

Kauri said:
Hi Kennas,
Early days yet but I'm with you... until I'm not that is.. good being a tad contrarian..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Why is it good to be a tad contrarian. How do we measure that, is it caution or just the idea that one should go against the old bugger so to speak because he is uncool.

I try to help or should I just go away. All of your recent posts Kauri have been to push anything I put forward aside. What have I done to offend you. cheers explod

Kauri · 3 December 2007

explod said:
Why is it good to be a tad contrarian. How do we measure that, is it caution or just the idea that one should go against the old bugger so to speak because he is uncool.

I try to help or should I just go away. All of your recent posts Kauri have been to push anything I put forward aside. What have I done to offend you. cheers explod

Sorry to have inadvertently offended you, but to be quite honest I haven't even noticed your posts. What seems to be the problem??

explod · 3 December 2007

Kauri said:
Sorry to have inadvertently offended you, but to be quite honest I haven't even noticed your posts. What seems to be the problem??

You have not answered the question, 'why is it good to be a tad contrarian?'.

I find it interesting that you have not noticed my posts. I find it essential to take in all posts because it helps in the overall decisions reached, which are then better informed decisions.

Kauri · 3 December 2007

explod said:
You have not answered the question, 'why is it good to be a tad contrarian?'.

Because I find it profitable in the main, when my basic charting indicates that a trend change is possible and at the same time most people have finally lined up with the existing trend... some of my best trades have resulted...

explod said:
I find it essential to take in all posts because it helps in the overall decisions reached, which are then better informed decisions.

I find the opposite, I have confidence in my own analysis, other peoples opinions, apart from noting the herding instinct, don't interest me.

explod said:
I find it interesting that you have not noticed my posts.

Really, as my old father used to tell me when I got too big for my boots... "Son,you would be amazed at the number of people who really don't care what you think .. "

explod said:
I try to help or should I just go away. All of your recent posts Kauri have been to push anything I put forward aside.

My opinions are just that... my opinions... if they don't happen to align with yours, so what.. don't you think it is some kind of arrogance to assume that I am framing my trades around what you think??

explod · 3 December 2007

Kauri, I frame my trades around every single piece of information from whatever source. I am fundamental and technical, and opinion also has its effects and benifits. To be otherwise is to be elitist and naive. If I post on a thread I try to take in that which has already been expressed so as not to repeat. I think I owe that to the intelligence of those others.

Kauri · 3 December 2007

explod said:
Kauri, I frame my trades around every single piece of information from whatever source. I am fundamental and technical, and opinion also has its effects and benifits. To be otherwise is to be elitist and naive. If I post on a thread I try to take in that which has already been expressed so as not to repeat. I think I owe that to the intelligence of those others.

Fine...whatever it takes to spin your crank..
but back to your original complaint... rest assured, your posts/opinions do not in any way affect the way I trade.. (which incidentally is what my posts are, real time posted trades without a hint of hindsight), to me, to put it politely, other peoples posts/opinions are irrelevant... Like it... or lump it..

wavepicker · 3 December 2007

Kauri said:
Because I find it profitable in the main, when my basic charting indicates that a trend change is possible and at the same time most people have finally lined up with the existing trend... some of my best trades have resulted...

Hello Kauri,

Totally agree with your comments here and share a very common approach, in fact the basis of many of my trades are based on sentiment amongst other things.

Quite often obvious thinking-or thinking commonly leads to wrong judgements and wrong conclusions.

Contrarian thinking/trading can be a difficult concept to grasp for many, going against the herd can really have you asking yourself "Am I doing the right thing here when everyone else seems convinced this trend has one direction?" It can play havoc on your psychology.

You are quite right, your own analysis is what matters, and pretty much everything(other posters comments) need not be considered for your trading except for one thing. If you make a post and provide analysis, and other posters emotionally oppose what you have put forward, chances are that you are probably sitting on a good trade.

Many of the best trades I have made(as yourself and others) have been from a contrarian stance.

IT PAYS TO BE CONTRARY

Cheers

Whiskers · 3 December 2007

explod said:
If the numbers go down in the US the dollar will contiue its fall which will drive up gold. Have I missed something here.

Hi explod.

I meant profit forcasts... and or more write downs. Thinking along the lines of the credit crisis still hasn't run full course.

Noticing little things like previous economic numbers being revised for the worse and a view that some commentators aspouse that even the US gov is fudging the figures a bit to soften the blow. I believe the Bush administration has got more concerned about worsening developments coming into election year and is having meetings with people to try to soften the impact of the problem.

I guess my natural personality is a bit contrarian too, but still a long way to go to match the technical skills of Wavepicker, Kauri, Nick and others.

I'm appreciative of any critique... to see what I can glean from the experts and laymen alike, cos sometimes no matter how good we think we are at our job, sometimes a casual observer can notice something relevant that is outside the box of our thinking.

Just looking at the chart again, it's taking a while to make a break. That bear flag has been breached a bit top and bottom. Not looking so tidy anymore.

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