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Gold Daytraders

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so....this is like walking thru mud for you the rest of the way....youre seeing a series of thought jibberjabber on navigating lots of tiny trades.....oh, did i say this was for the sake of context and realtive size within the bigger channel....yeah, reckon i did

please note the time frames change (top left corner) i am regularly moving my time scope
there's always "a" signal within all time frames .....in construction terms all time frames carry similar signals of relative size and provide context at all scales in all time frames

.....onwards:

 
context .....this one is important at the moment as the usd/jpy just hit and rotated below a strong 1:1 ratio that exists much higher in the charts downchannel ......this is typically a good construction signal that i should expect more of the same, meaning, odds of betting on downside are much higher probability than odds of upside bets, that being true, its an indicator to consider as a correlation (if you like)

 


that 's 12 to 19 of 29 jpegs ...... (something witty goes in here, but my heads just fried typing out the thoughts from the previous sesh!!)

onwards:
 
the yellow lines all correlate with previous price lengths in the same direction, they offer an initial idea of support and more importantly they offer an idea of how price is travelling, by that i mean, has anything changed in the liquidity coming thru the instrument, has the context changed, if these levels are being taken out how are they being taken out, have they lost their relevance to the ideas i thought they offered

of the 3 three yellow lines the first should hold, it did, it didnt have to as the second one was so close sometimes that second one is the "active" one ....that means price is at making swings relative to when players find them of value in either buy-side liquidity or sell-side liquidity

the third lower line is a defintive nearterm game changer, it tells me my upside views are wrong, maybe my larger context is wrong, it's likely a GTFO of longs and GTFI for STO's

the point of ratios is to provide balance not to be aggressive.......so theyre levels of risk and levels of permission to engage risk, they may also ask to consider risk size due to their own relative size

ratios are of themselves contextual they do not exist or print in isolation

traders think they trade in isolation .....they do not ......no one ever trades in isolation, the concept is dumb

if that is true then it is true that the auction has its own construct and intent

to some degree this must exist to be seen and as the auction is dynamic ratios are dynamic too
 
channel break? session close above and a retest of 1366 would likely end the recent congestion and release energy upwards

 
did we retest the channel/flag roof already?

speed of price swings suggest not just indexes in distribution, both xau/silver dirty upswings suggest selling into strength, are we simply shaking off weak longs?

the simple abc retrace (a=c at 100%) needs to hold ...maybe we're still dependent on our friend the DX bear
 
failure to get thru the 1366 prev swing high and drag back inside the channel prob requires another rotation series before higher highs .......still a smaller probability that a larger high has already been printed and the instrument is rolling over ....
 
lots of scales now that we've come back inside the channel and held below the 1366 front month high
if there is a correlation active here the usd/jpy should head south as xau/usd heads north and until the structure of pricing says so, scaling appears best technique

 
in real time posting charts is a challenge esp as i have some plays on xjo and spx indexes

so far nothing more than a wash it seems ....few want to go thru price discovery? probably...


 
part 2

$gold $GC #COT nothing yells out other than the same message from last weeks print
$dx stuck in a zone, usd/jpy tried to break out above the longterm channel but came back inside again, no clear signal, probably means more of the same larger trend direction (down)
 
Gap up on Monday, only thing left to do is decide, based on remainder of information left to evolve, whether other not to fade the gaps.
 
The yellow metal has been on the nose for a little bit - testing the bottom of the range. With AUD at a key support it's worth looking for a long in gold imo.

I don't follow it closely however I've seen other markets where price action in the out of hours gives away the tell. I wonder if the funny business this morning marks a mid term low in Gold? Quite the 'gotchya'.

 

USD is killin it .....USD/JPY on a tear ......best i could get was to take usd longs based on momo breaks but tuff gig playing xau/usd

going straight down 1290 sees the base of that flag/channel thing .....stuck in that big range
 
silver is warning of a break-out downside out of this longwinded triangle thing with a target sub 13's

USD keeps punching higher so i suspect gold will at least rip into the underside of the channel/zone sub 1290's and as that is a fraction of the silver length then 1290's is prob a generous target from a trapped bulls point of view...if youre a bull as opposed to a trader, then, maybe, setting your levels and close the screen is a better option as currently the upside buzz is probably the wrong buzz
 
silver rotates at the tri low, bids hit both PM's as $dx stalled

usd and gold may climb together
@explod good news for bulls, at least the levels as clear for transaction ideas

 
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