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Gold Daytraders

Discussion in 'Commodities' started by Uncle Festivus, Oct 17, 2008.

  1. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    so....this is like walking thru mud for you the rest of the way....youre seeing a series of thought jibberjabber on navigating lots of tiny trades.....oh, did i say this was for the sake of context and realtive size within the bigger channel....yeah, reckon i did

    please note the time frames change (top left corner) i am regularly moving my time scope
    there's always "a" signal within all time frames .....in construction terms all time frames carry similar signals of relative size and provide context at all scales in all time frames

    .....onwards:

    gold 4 add size 060417.jpggold 5 momo 060418.jpggold 5a closes part  060418.jpggold 6 new long same game 060418.jpggold 7 review review review 060418.jpg
     
  2. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    context .....this one is important at the moment as the usd/jpy just hit and rotated below a strong 1:1 ratio that exists much higher in the charts downchannel ......this is typically a good construction signal that i should expect more of the same, meaning, odds of betting on downside are much higher probability than odds of upside bets, that being true, its an indicator to consider as a correlation (if you like)

    gold 7a context JPY STO 060418.jpggold 8 poss dbl top thing, lets let risk play 050418.jpggold 9 pause then bids take up 060418.jpggold 10 context of brk out and relative size 060418.jpggold 11 scale other instrooz for context 060418.jpg
     
  3. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    gold 12 scale out on strength 060418.jpggold 13 scale out on strength 060418.jpggold 14 context jpy v usd reveals dx strength 060418.jpggold 15 momo impulse set 060418.jpggold 16 ratios of support plus added long.jpggold 17 scale eye on indexes 060418.jpggold 18 context review 060418.jpggold 19 signals say pursue 060418.jpg

    that 's 12 to 19 of 29 jpegs ...... (something witty goes in here, but my heads just fried typing out the thoughts from the previous sesh!!)

    onwards:
     
  4. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    20 to 25 of 29

    gold 20 time to close out 060418.jpg
    gold 20a huh...hmmm... close out 060418.jpg
    gold 21 numpty boy 060418.jpg
    gold 22 ratio trigger support 060418.jpg
    gold 23 ready to cash out 060418.jpg

    gold 24 ratio holds risk adj target set 060418.jpg

    gold 25 still holding scaled 10 to 1 060418.jpg
     
  5. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    last ones

    gold 26 risk adj as a total of all in play 070418.jpg

    gold 27 more of the same 070418.jpg
    gold 28 ready to bail all connies again 070418.jpg

    gold 29 and we're closed for lunch and the weekend 070418.jpg
     
  6. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    the yellow lines all correlate with previous price lengths in the same direction, they offer an initial idea of support and more importantly they offer an idea of how price is travelling, by that i mean, has anything changed in the liquidity coming thru the instrument, has the context changed, if these levels are being taken out how are they being taken out, have they lost their relevance to the ideas i thought they offered

    of the 3 three yellow lines the first should hold, it did, it didnt have to as the second one was so close sometimes that second one is the "active" one ....that means price is at making swings relative to when players find them of value in either buy-side liquidity or sell-side liquidity

    the third lower line is a defintive nearterm game changer, it tells me my upside views are wrong, maybe my larger context is wrong, it's likely a GTFO of longs and GTFI for STO's

    the point of ratios is to provide balance not to be aggressive.......so theyre levels of risk and levels of permission to engage risk, they may also ask to consider risk size due to their own relative size

    ratios are of themselves contextual they do not exist or print in isolation

    traders think they trade in isolation .....they do not ......no one ever trades in isolation, the concept is dumb

    if that is true then it is true that the auction has its own construct and intent

    to some degree this must exist to be seen and as the auction is dynamic ratios are dynamic too
     
  7. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    channel break? session close above and a retest of 1366 would likely end the recent congestion and release energy upwards

    gold brks channel 120418 57y.o ii..png
     
    peter2 likes this.
  8. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    did we retest the channel/flag roof already?

    speed of price swings suggest not just indexes in distribution, both xau/silver dirty upswings suggest selling into strength, are we simply shaking off weak longs?

    the simple abc retrace (a=c at 100%) needs to hold ...maybe we're still dependent on our friend the DX bear
    gold retest channel roof 120418.png
     
  9. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    failure to get thru the 1366 prev swing high and drag back inside the channel prob requires another rotation series before higher highs .......still a smaller probability that a larger high has already been printed and the instrument is rolling over ....gold 120418 pending back inside.png
     
  10. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    lots of scales now that we've come back inside the channel and held below the 1366 front month high
    if there is a correlation active here the usd/jpy should head south as xau/usd heads north and until the structure of pricing says so, scaling appears best technique

    gold usdVjpy 130418.png
     
  11. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    a rotation, with momo ......and usd/jpy has a nice sell too ..
     
  12. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    in real time posting charts is a challenge esp as i have some plays on xjo and spx indexes

    so far nothing more than a wash it seems ....few want to go thru price discovery? probably...


    gold rotates at spx open 140418.png
     
  13. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    crossing the streams $silver #bias #extremes #lookatrecentextremesSILVER cot timingcharts 140418.png
     
  14. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    part 2

    $gold $GC #COT nothing yells out other than the same message from last weeks print
    $dx stuck in a zone, usd/jpy tried to break out above the longterm channel but came back inside again, no clear signal, probably means more of the same larger trend direction (down)
    gold timingcharts cot 140418.png
     
  15. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Gap up on Monday, only thing left to do is decide, based on remainder of information left to evolve, whether other not to fade the gaps.
     
  16. kid hustlr

    kid hustlr

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    The yellow metal has been on the nose for a little bit - testing the bottom of the range. With AUD at a key support it's worth looking for a long in gold imo.

    I don't follow it closely however I've seen other markets where price action in the out of hours gives away the tell. I wonder if the funny business this morning marks a mid term low in Gold? Quite the 'gotchya'.

    Gold.png
     
  17. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    USD is killin it .....USD/JPY on a tear ......best i could get was to take usd longs based on momo breaks but tuff gig playing xau/usd

    going straight down 1290 sees the base of that flag/channel thing .....stuck in that big range
     
  18. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    risk defined for a rotation

    gold inv ratio 127.2 250418 anzac.png
     
  19. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    silver is warning of a break-out downside out of this longwinded triangle thing with a target sub 13's

    USD keeps punching higher so i suspect gold will at least rip into the underside of the channel/zone sub 1290's and as that is a fraction of the silver length then 1290's is prob a generous target from a trapped bulls point of view...if youre a bull as opposed to a trader, then, maybe, setting your levels and close the screen is a better option as currently the upside buzz is probably the wrong buzz
     
  20. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    silver rotates at the tri low, bids hit both PM's as $dx stalled

    usd and gold may climb together
    @explod good news for bulls, at least the levels as clear for transaction ideas

    silver goes bid at the Tri base 61.8 020518.png
     
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