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Gold Day Trading (5 Viewers)

Joules MM1

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when the lifts look like hardwork is price bid up or marked up....price can still become impulsive in the lift but this is all liquidity fingers ...so far gold analogue ratios 180118.png
 

Joules MM1

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fridays lift is not clean, we would expect to see a follow-thru today if the news fitted the trend impulsively
typically when honkers opens we get a bull kick after a + news release for xauusd
we know the larger channel had a decent confirmation signal so that's the real low in terms of technical strength
again, it's not the influx of selling that kills the uptrend (relative size of that phase) its the withdrawal or contraction of bids
relative to the continuous size of selling, trends within trends, liquidity gangs gotta make their $ too, so right now, let's say
because we cannot know for sure, let's say the group(s) at play right now are not determing trend, theyre just swimming within
and covering the news release has had a very high hit rate for large cap commods
#lunchmoneytrade

xauusd train ticket 070621.png
#
 
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Joules has shown an inverse head & shoulder pattern that leans to the right. The target from the H&S pattern is 1962.

The pattern will fail if price goes below the right shoulder.

This is not a day trade (DT) setup but it is based on a chart pattern.
 

Joules MM1

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added to (sensei) @peter2 post:
if the sloping shoulders were sloped upward not downward, preceded by a clean impulsive trend swing,
that print would add to the confidence of a break out above the neckline to reach the 2 x target

in this instance, i say, confidence is lower as we have the downward sloping neckline and we have had a less than clean trip upwards

so we should consider this when looking at both positional risk and account risk and this may add to the larger landscape

(as i type i have a STO position) ....even tho H&S have less than stellar outcomes, it is fair to say that win/loss rate is based in toto
on all styles of H&S and not delineated to "styles" of each construct (slanted left, slanted right, horizontal, inverted, obverse, upwards or downards direction and specially if "nestled H&S" what that context is, in other words, the H&S we are observing is a contextual as it is smaller in relative size the larger - shall we say daily - as it is small within a tight upchannel)
 

Joules MM1

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#observation
we now have several anchors for the bulls to own this channel, technically it proves the bull case

breaking out of this channel after the news annoc would suggest player used the release to sell into strength
inversely, testing the channel floor (as it just did) create ideal trend within the confines of the channel
to that extent the channel defines risk for both sides (STO and BTO)

forward testing is always better tutor than backwards testing
 
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This is where I struggle with my trades I could of cashed in at 30% profit but held the shares, with today's bounce I am at 25% again.
Today thought I am going to apply a trailing stop on this trade as it removes the onus from me somewhat.
I will see how this goes for me as I like to let my trades run but I seem to allow them to lose a fair amount of profit at times.
Just thought I would add the trailing stop is at 2% not a lot of room but a bit,
 
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Every trader suffers from this problem until they make plans and then apply those plans to minimise the emotional impact. It's very hard to stick to a trading plan until you understand yourself. The plans you make should suit your personality and risk tolerance.

I'm a short term trader. If my initial risk is 10% then I'm happy to grab 15-25% in a short time. I'll use a profit target or a trailing stop that tightens as the profit gets larger. I'm not going to get most of the move but I'll get lots of little bits as the swing or trend unfolds.

You manage every trade according to your trading plans. Your plan for every market, eg XAUUSD, must allow for the average price movement (volatility) in the time frame you're trading. If you use a trailing stop on a daily chart then you've got to allow price to move the average daily amount. Gold can move a lot in a session and this makes it difficult to use a trailing stop on an intraday chart.
 

Gunnerguy

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Every trader suffers from this problem until they make plans and then apply those plans to minimise the emotional impact. It's very hard to stick to a trading plan until you understand yourself. The plans you make should suit your personality and risk tolerance.

I'm a short term trader. If my initial risk is 10% then I'm happy to grab 15-25% in a short time. I'll use a profit target or a trailing stop that tightens as the profit gets larger. I'm not going to get most of the move but I'll get lots of little bits as the swing or trend unfolds.

You manage every trade according to your trading plans. Your plan for every market, eg XAUUSD, must allow for the average price movement (volatility) in the time frame you're trading. If you use a trailing stop on a daily chart then you've got to allow price to move the average daily amount. Gold can move a lot in a session and this makes it difficult to use a trailing stop on an intraday chart.
Peter
Great reply, understand yourself, emotions and RISK TOLERANCE.
When I started trading/investing years ago, I was told a good analogy.

Like a fisherman, you don’t want the tail and you don’t want the head. You want the body meat. Imagine a fish standing on its tail with its head pointing to the sky. As a trader you’ll never (or very rarely) pick the bottom or the top of the trend. You need to identify the base/turn, let it rise (the tail) then buy in. Let it rise until you have some of the meat, enough to feed yourself, then sell out. If you miss the top that’s fine. You live to trade another time.
Different for everyone, but a gain of 10% in 1,2,3 weeks I would be very happy with. Yes there are trading costs in and out, but I trade in large amounts where the trading costs are insignificant.
Just my 2 cents worth.
Gunnerguy
 
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Although I posted here I am not day trading but I like Gold ATM.
I generally trade in lots of 10,000 shares no real reason but it also makes the trading cost irreverent. So 10% is good. But selling has proven a challenge of late.
Up until late I have been firm but of late I have broken my rules to my own detriment. :confused:
 

Gunnerguy

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Th
Although I posted here I am not day trading but I like Gold ATM.
I generally trade in lots of 10,000 shares no real reason but it also makes the trading cost irreverent. So 10% is good. But selling has proven a challenge of late.
Up until late I have been firm but of late I have broken my rules to my own detriment. :confused:
The fish analogy was for ALL lengths of trade, day, month, cycle, long term.
Gunnerguy
 

Joules MM1

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triggered a STO priced crossed 1884 xauusd
failing to just take take the previous swing high 1904's yesterday
unusual for price to hug the floor of the up channel, currently very smooth transition,
breaking the channel likely attract offers, we can already see a breakdown channel forming
 

Joules MM1

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sell held over the weekend still playing out
xauusd is clearly now out of the channel and (arguably) forming a new down channel
we cannot read much into this until price print further suffice to say the greater risk to longs

interestingly macd crossed, the last time it so clearly crossed a lot of points were sliced off the menu,
while price had only previously traversed half the distance to the upside, this suggests 50% would not be
out of sync on a trend basis

for students take a gander at Elliott work done by a top practitioner, whom, unfortunately, passed away
https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/8 Tony Caldaro's weekly notation stands as classic work
while not considered orthodox the validity is clear and still baring fruit especially his (indexes) work on SPX et al
 

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