GDX - VanEck Gold Miners ETF

Taking a look at a big picture chart on US gold mining stocks, the market has broken out of a multi-year descending channel around mid 2024 and made a five wave move up into a resistance price zone shown on the chart where the market has made a recent sharp reversal.


If this reversal can turn back to the upside on strength before reaching the Feb28 low, which corresponds to a 61.8% retrace, then this multiwave move could turn out to be a seven wave move breaking through that major resistance, before making a more substantial reversal.

I'm slightly surprised to see so many gold stocks breaking up when the market is breaking down. Yes, AUD Gold has been on a tear and is still going, but when the market flops just about everything flops, as this did earlier in the week. But now, market down, GDX up.

i'd be really pleased to see your faith in miners pay off @Sean K

gg

Sean K said:

I'm slightly surprised to see so many gold stocks breaking up when the market is breaking down. Yes, AUD Gold has been on a tear and is still going, but when the market flops just about everything flops, as this did earlier in the week. But now, market down, GDX up.

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Yeah, wasn't sure what to expect this morning with my goldies.

As you say, have been flopping with the market but today looks to be a disconnect.

Good morning
Great day for gold believers yesterday (12/04/25) PoG went to Mars!!!
GDX had another all-time high @ $78.59

Nice

Chart update:
Daily


15 minute chart - $12.51 gain over (5) five days !!!! The power of gold in uncertain times ....

Not holding
Have traded.

Kind regards
rcw1

I couldn't make my mind up on big gold miners so decided to buy some GDX. I have a fair few $US in an IBKR account and rather than converting because the $USD had fallen I decided to buy the US version of GDX and GDXJ as well.

I may miss out on some franked divies, although most of the stocks in both are Canadian or US with some Aussie, so I doubt it.

It is also quite amusing to see what the yanks call junior miners in the J. There are some heavy hitters there as well. They fell after I bought but expect to be in profit tonight or later this week should the god of the yellow metal shine on me.

gg

Market Matters has some fairly bullish commentary today on gold and gold stocks over 2025/6, albeit expecting much volatility. Thus they have an active trading disposition to gold miners. They loaded up on EVN on Tuesday, having sold it too early with hindsight and also like RRL as a more aggressive riskier trade.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) $77.02
This ETF holds heavyweight gold stocks from overseas and Australia ( just 11%). Its largest three holdings are Newmont (NEM US) (11.7%), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) (11.2%), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM US) (7.4%). In line with an appreciating $A, we aren’t surprised that the GDX looks likely to push higher than the ASX names, i.e. Gold priced in $A will underperform as the “Aussie” pushes higher, or more specifically, the $US drifts back below the psychological 100 area.

We like the GDX ETF targeting fresh highs in the coming weeks/months, or ~10% higher.
MM is bullish on the GDX into the EOFY

Not Held

Interesting that the GDX has broken out ahead of POG. Is that a signal that POG will follow?

Good afternoon

Chart Update ... ka boom off to Pluto it goes ha ha ha ha ... Broken on through the Tonne ... Wow

I wonder how many people have been waiting for a correction in this to jump in over the past few months?

That surprises me @Sean K, I thought you were holding GDX

finicky said:

That surprises me @Sean K, I thought you were holding GDX

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I sold to lock in some profits a while back expecting a decent correction and was way overweight gold.

Back in and overweight gold again so I expect that correction momentarily.

Clive Thompson has done a hard take apart of GDX and has uncovered some interesting anomalies. Seems there will be a rebalancing on or around the 19th of Sept. He gives a list of the ones that will be reappraised. I'll leave it for much smarter folk than me to interpret. Make of it as you will......................

The historical surges in gold produced surges in GDX inflows a short time later.
looking at the chart below, it seems that we are yet to hit that surge.
There may be more to go for the GDX, despite its price having doubled this year alone.
Mick

Market Matters are starting to wonder if they've somewhat miscalled gold and the miners, that call having been short term correction, with medium and long term bullish. Regarding individual miners they like the prospects for Newmont (NEM) preferring it to NST considering NST's high capex growth stage. Want NEM below $200. They state NEM’s key features are steady production, a strong balance sheet and nice cash returns. Continued success with non-core asset divestments allowed NEM to add another US$3bn buyback in July, helped by net debt well below targets.

NEM not held by me, not Buying
NST Held

Vaneck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) $113.11

"Gold’s record-breaking rally extended on Tuesday after reports that China is stepping up efforts to cement its influence in global bullion markets. Bloomberg revealed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is seeking to act as a custodian of foreign sovereign reserves, encouraging allied nations to buy gold and store it within China. If successful, the move will strengthen Beijing’s role in the global financial system and advance its ambition to reduce reliance on the US dollar and traditional hubs such as the US, UK, and Switzerland. The initiative is well timed as demand for gold surges amid rising geopolitical risks, giving the PBOC an opening to position itself as a trusted haven for a vital shock-absorbing asset.

Sometimes the picture can become clearer when we stand back and look at the bigger timeframe, and in the case of gold, whether it be the underlying precious metal or VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), we are in a strong bull market where surprises are likely to be with the trend, which is up. We’ve been looking for gold to consolidate after trading into the $US3,600 area, but this is already starting to look and feel wrong after it tested $US3,800 overnight; the market is stronger than we thought.

NB The GDX ETF tracks the Arca Gold Miners Index (AUD), delivering an international twist with 53% exposure to Canada, 18% US, 9% Australia and 7% South Africa at its core. The largest holding is Newmont Corp (NEM US) ~11% while the most significant local holding is Northern Star (NST), which is less than a 3% position.

We are looking for optimum ways to again increase our gold exposure into Christmas.
We are bullish towards gold medium/long term"