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GDX - VanEck Gold Miners ETF

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@rcw1 I have changed that red resistance line into blue support now. Hopefully the chart plays the game. Gold holding above $1700 should hold up the gold stocks, but general market weakness may find it retreating again of course.


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Good morning SeanK,
Yep, agreed. Good job.

FYI some comments by Stuart Allsopp. Some people like him some don't, personally rcw1 can cop the lad. Anyways:


FYI too: rcw1 is extra cautious with this expensive trading stock as at times it can be problematic for application of rcw1 real time trading methodologies:
  • not enough volume; and
  • too large a price gap between trades where there is lowish volume
All value adds to the challenges that await us :)

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Sean K

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Good morning SeanK,
Yep, agreed. Good job.

FYI some comments by Stuart Allsopp. Some people like him some don't, personally rcw1 can cop the lad. Anyways:


FYI too: rcw1 is extra cautious with this expensive trading stock as at times it can be problematic for application of rcw1 real time trading methodologies:
  • not enough volume; and
  • too large a price gap between trades where there is lowish volume
All value adds to the challenges that await us :)

Kind regards
rcw1

Agree, those gaps are a problem if trading. My investment horizon for the gold story is 1-2 years, so no problem for me.
 

Sean K

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Agree, those gaps are a problem if trading. My investment horizon for the gold story is 1-2 years, so no problem for me.

and I'm very happy to see gaps up.... @rcw1 :)

Screen Shot 2022-11-11 at 10.51.45 am.png
 
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Good morning
An article written by Adam Hamilton, Mining dot com, yesterday morning (18/11/22).
Those that have a keen interest in GDX, recommend reading the publication.
Some noteworthy points according to the author, (must read the paper for the full and true context to be revealed), anyways for mine:
  • But while Q3’22 was disappointing, big gold-stock upside potential remains as gold mean reverts higher;
  • Q3’22 offered no respite ... with the GDX top 25’s aggregate gold production falling 4.1% YoY to 8,162k ounces;
  • Last quarter the GDX top 25’s average cash costs rocketed up 22.4% YoY to a record $975 per ounce! That was pretty shocking, as before Q1’20 these elite gold miners’ broader all-in sustaining costs had never been higher than $925;
  • The GDX top 25’s bottom-line accounting profits certainly reflected their higher mining costs, plunging by 39.5% YoY to $1,699m! That’s definitely weak, the lowest since Q2’19. The previous ten quarters saw total earnings average $2,898m. To return near more-normal levels, the major gold miners either have to lower their rising AISCs or see better gold prices. Both are likely in coming quarters, really boosting profits; and
  • Nevertheless the major gold miners still continued to generate solid profits and operating cash flows. They are forecasting lower all-in sustaining costs in coming quarters, which will boost earnings. And gold itself is overdue to mean revert way higher with that extreme US dollar parabola collapsing. So gold miners’ fundamentals should really improve, supporting much higher gold-stock prices as gold powers higher.

Have a very nice weekend.


Not holding at present.

Edit: some punctuation etc fixed

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Sean K

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Still looking like a potential bottom back there, but talking heads on the financial channels still saying be cautious of another bear rally in general equities. Perhaps they've missed the bottom and feeling jealous. A lot of cash on the sidelines is probably itching to get back in now in FOMO, so could be a good run until the Fed says 'woops' we've got it wrong again.

Screenshot 2022-12-02 at 8.50.55 am.png
 
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Good afternoon Sean K
rcw1 very close to jumping back in ... SP went smooching the $41.85 level for a moment.
Getting the jitters ha ha ha ha

Thoughts ? if I may be so bold as to inquire with you?

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Sean K

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Good afternoon Sean K
rcw1 very close to jumping back in ... SP went smooching the $41.85 level for a moment.
Getting the jitters ha ha ha ha

Thoughts ? if I may be so bold as to inquire with you?

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1

Long term hold for me at the moment and I'm adding on significant corrections. Could easily move back to the $40 support mark short term. I'm a longer term gold bull though, so I might have my gold goggles on. I think short term trading is a little hard with this due to the gaps, as you've previously mentioned. But, most of the top 10 stocks this thing holds have a similar chart profile. AEM, NEM, GOLD, NCM etc, all still showing rounded bottoms.
 
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Long term hold for me at the moment and I'm adding on significant corrections. Could easily move back to the $40 support mark short term. I'm a longer term gold bull though, so I might have my gold goggles on. I think short term trading is a little hard with this due to the gaps. But, most of the top 10 stocks this thing holds have a similar chart profile. AEM, NEM, GOLD, NCM etc, all still showing rounded bottoms.
yep, thanks for that.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
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I subscribe to Greg Carnavan's investor advice and while he is very bullish gold stocks for 2023 he expects a pullback first and then he will be advising some ASX goldie buys. He points out that there's already been a 45% rally since September.
 

Sean K

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I subscribe to Greg Carnavan's investor advice and while he is very bullish gold stocks for 2023 he expects a pullback first and then he will be advising some ASX goldie buys. He points out that there's already been a 45% rally since September.

I agree there should be a correction of some type to keep this run up healthy.

Although, it's at times like these that I wonder, why did I hold all that cash on the breaks up in Sep and Nov? Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Are we forming a nice big cup?

Screenshot 2023-01-05 at 10.11.53 am.png
 
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Good afternoon
Great volume today, well to 1.12pm AES, anyways. Some big sales always helps.
Interesting.

Not holding.
Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
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Good evening
GDX SP got down to $41.45 today (20/02/23), the hot air balloon been running out of gas past 9-10 days or so.
rcw1 is watching this one.
rcw1 is a GDX believer. Will go back in when the numbers are good to go.
Good fortune SeanK.

Kind regards
rcw1


Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Sean K

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Well, that rounded bottom was looking great until Feb, which I think coincided with general USD strength. Had to correct at some stage, but a little more than I'd have liked.

Found some support across 40 bucks ish. Happy with that, for the moment.

Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 11.59.01 am.png


Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 11.57.07 am.png
 
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