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FLT - Flight Centre Travel Group

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If my experience can be extended,while i always self manage6 trips previously, our let's the f out asap flight will go thru an agent if only to be covered for expected delays, borders locks and exit reentry quotas
 
Travel is still going to be restricted for some time and people wary of going abroad, but there's also a lot of people who haven't travelled for some time and will be itching to re-start face to face business and take well overdue holidays. Your average punter hasn't spent money on holidays for 2 years. Perhaps FLT will go gang busters post-Covid? I'm betting on it going back to pre-Covid at some stage. After $20, it's straight up to $40.

 
$20 resistance looks gone. For now. Has had a few good runs since the bottom of the Covid fears with consolidation periods between. Has set a trend of price action.

 
FLT was bound to bounce back once we had COVID vaccines. However, I think the bounce might be getting ahead of itself a little for a couple of reasons.

1. Fear. I think many people will likely never travel overseas again, opting to holiday in Australia instead. COVID-19 has caused deep psychological scars in many that will take years to repair. Many will simply decide to holiday at home, rather than go overseas. The margins on domestic flights are thinner and I think harder to make profitable.

2. Cost. I don't think international travel will be the same again for some time, and while there may be some initial discounts to get people moving again, I don't think travel will ever be as cheap as it was before COVID-19. There will be more screening and additional costs involved. More delays, and more hassles.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next year or two, but outbound and inbound international passenger numbers will take years to recover. I don't think FLT is a good bet now, or in the foreseeable future. But I could be very wrong.
 
greggles said:
FLT was bound to bounce back once we had COVID vaccines. However, I think the bounce might be getting ahead of itself a little for a couple of reasons.
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I'm betting on the opposite. People are cashed up and jumping out of their skin to book trips asap. I'll buy you a beer when it goes back to pre-Covid sp. ?
 
kennas said:
I'm betting on the opposite. People are cashed up and jumping out of their skin to book trips asap. I'll buy you a beer when it goes back to pre-Covid sp. ?
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You could well be right. I think FLT will definitely head higher longer term, but short term I think any rally will stall. It's up another 1.6% today so we will see what October brings.
 
greggles said:
You could well be right. I think FLT will definitely head higher longer term, but short term I think any rally will stall. It's up another 1.6% today so we will see what October brings.
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I've a one year plan. Let's reconvene this discussion on 28 Sep 2022.

Hopefully there's not a Covid-Xi strain in the mean time.
 
kennas said:
I've a one year plan. Let's reconvene this discussion on 28 Sep 2022.

Hopefully there's not a Covid-Xi strain in the mean time.
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Fair enough. I think the risks to the international travel sector are higher than almost any other sector; higher than the movie business, commercial property, or any other sector that has suffered greatly as a result of COVID-19. It will recover in time, but it will be a very bumpy ride IMO.

Am happy to reconvene in 12 months and see where we are.
 
This is going better than expected, thus far. I think yesterday was especially good to Covid / travel related stocks. Punters jumping in thinking that the worst is over. But, who knows what's next. $20 should now be support moving forward and any general market corrections.

 
wiseman said:
took a hit today.. anyone have some valid ideas why?
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Well it could be the fact that it has run up from $14 to $24 in about six weeks entirely on speculation that travel patterns will return to pre-COVID levels in the next 12 months. I think there are a lot of assumptions there that may not pan out. We are not out of woods yet, and international travel is likely to change quite a bit after COVID.

The selling today I would guess is just profit takers cashing out and moving on.
 
wiseman said:
What do you think the chances are that FLT could possibly go to $70-$80 even $100 a stock, once travel is in full flight again? As Kennas said, everyones cashed up and dying to get on a holiday.
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I think it is very, very, very unlikely that FLT will go to those levels. Travel pre-COVID was easy, uncomplicated and cheap. Travel after COVID will be more expensive, and more complicated. There will be vaccination passports, and temperature scans. It is likely that seats in economy will not be as close together on many airlines, meaning prices will rise.

wiseman said:
It was around the $40-$50 mark in 2019 and that was a time PRE-covid when people took travelling for granted. NOW I feel as if people who didn't even care, nor wanted to go on a holiday, would all be itching out of their skin to travel..
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I think more people will holiday at home after COVID, especially the elderly. I can't see any justification for the theory that people will be rushing to travel overseas after COVID. I think people will naturally be more cautious, and travel will take years to pick up to pre-COVID levels.

Also, Flight Centre isn't the only way to book international travel. It is mostly used for packages and corporate travel. I haven't used them since 2002. If you just want a return flight, it's easier (and cheaper) to book on any number of price comparison sites such as Skyscanner.
 
wiseman said:
What do you think the chances are that FLT could possibly go to $70-$80 even $100 a stock, once travel is in full flight again?
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Anything is possible I guess, but almost impossible in the case of FLT, dont forget the share count has nearly doubled, so its actually currently priced about the same as it was prior to Covid!! That would terrify me if I were a shareholder. Also debt has exploded to nearly 100% of equity.

Not somewhere I would want my capital invested. Sure, there is some amount of pent up demand for OS holidays, but its not going back to where it was 3 years ago any time soon, and even then, FLT is not the same company, its barely survived, saddled with debt, exploded share count, all you can really do here is bet on a momentum spike when borders open and take any profits and run. Fundamentally its not an attractive long term proposition.
 
You are missing the point, not us. Simple fact is there are twice as many shares on issue now, as well as massive debt. Its basic maths mate, even if they return to pre-covid total profit, the per share amount is half what it was. Essentially its trading now at a higher price than pre-covid when it was $40.

"Close friends who made a lot of money" is amongst the worst reasons to invest, more than likely they end up with a close friend who lost most of their money.

I don't doubt that there may well be an opportunity for nimble traders to make some profit speculating on the effects of travel starting up again, but I cant see how its a long term investible business now.
 
galumay said:
I give up.
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galumay, don't give up. I have been trading for about 6 weeks now, and your and others' insights are invaluable learnings for 'rookies'. Not everyone is going to listen, and a fool and their money are soon parted (and if not soon, not long after as everyone gets lucky occasionally).
 
Thanks for the kind words! Don't worry I am only giving up on that individual, I find the relief from stopping banging my head against a brick wall is very pleasant. I am old enough to see the warning signs and I should know well enough by now that the ignore button makes life much smoother!

(note first of all he said he already put $100k into FLT, then a couple of posts later he says he is going to put $90k into it tomorrow.)
 
"Buy on rumour, sell on fact" might come into play here. The rumour and fact, in this case, is the re-opening of the economy.

KH
 
Its a bit funny, too, that a certain individual has been a member for only a short time, has posted in relation to two stocks only, and, in both cases, his first post on that particular thread was to say that the stock would skyrocket.

Now, it might be a coincidence, but the cynic in me thinks not.

KH
 
As long as you are ready to sell and take profit, it is a trade...why not..
 
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