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FLT - Flight Centre Travel Group

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That is a good point, I tend to book everything myself, but your reasoning is pretty sound, maybe there will be a reconfiguring and consolidation in the industry.
 
Value Hunter said:
It is a business with a limited shelf life.
Click to expand...

I think you will find that part of the business is not their focus anymore, look at what they are doing with the B2B part of the business, thats where the growth and future lies I suspect.

They are pivoting away from the online travel agent model, which as you say has limited utitlity once the boomers drop off the perch.
 
Galumay I think they are a lagging the game in corporate travel. Specialized companies like Corporate travel management and many others are way ahead of them in that space. Besides if all the traditional retail travel agents start like Flight Center decide to get into the corporate travel game then margins in that niche will go down.

Look they might end up doing okay in the long run given the strong balance sheet and high insider ownership of shares but I would not be confident enough to bet on them.
 
My bad, You are correct VH, I was thinking about WEB and their pivot to the B2B sector. Got my companies mixed up!

(I have no interest in investing in either of them!)
 
I'm going to watch this as well as WEB, SLK and a few other travel related. Long term monthly charts look pretty precarious to me. I'd consider buys if FLT or WEB went into GFC scale corrections.

Not held

 
Another article, says NPAT down 74% on prior corresponding period.
https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network275352.html
Flight centre travel group (ASX:FLT) report a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $22.1 million, that’s 74 per cent less than the prior corresponding period.

They have slashed their second-half predictions for underlining before tax profit by up to $70 million over uncertainties from the coronavirus outbreak.

Companies amending their travel policy regarding the coronavirus has impacted Flight Centre particularly during the last three weeks.

Leisure travel patterns have also been increasingly affected recently, with some customers reviewing or reconsidering short-term holiday plans and monitoring the virus’s possible spread to locations outside China and Asia in the future.

They will pay a final dividend of 40 cents.

Shares in Flight centre travel group (ASX:FLT) are trading 0.69 per cent higher at $35.24.
 
Yes and that $240-300m figure is for underlying Profit Before Tax and there is already a significant reduction of the bottom line to that from one off expenses and a large non cash impairment in the value of a UK business. Flight can go through massive corrections and this might be setting up for one.
 

Daaaaamn FLT has been smashed. What a missed opportunity....again. Company already in trouble and exposed to a sector that was bound to be hit hard by covid-19.

Bit annoyed at my self for missing a FLT short for a second time.
 

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Must say I’ve been really impressed from a strictly business view point with the way Flight Center and Qantas have responded to these in believable business capitulation.

Their actions will mean there will be companies for their staff to come back to.
 
I'm wondering if things will ever be the same for FLT after this. I suspect the travel industry will take years to recover and many Australians are now more likely to holiday at home rather than travel overseas. The psychological scars from this coronavirus outbreak are going to take a long time to heal.

Add to that the ease of online booking in 2020 and I think that it is inevitable that the role that FLT plays in the travel industry in the future will slowly decline. Essentially the bulk of their revenue comes from commissions from airlines and hotels and other service providers such as tour operators. There is a lot more direct advertising from these kind of companies now and I think the days of package holidays organised by a third party such as FLT now represent a much smaller slice of the travel industry pie than it did say 20 years ago.

Does any here use Flight Centre regularly? I used to use them quite a bit in the 90s and 00s, but since 2010 I haven't used them once.
 
greggles said:
Does any here use Flight Centre regularly? I used to use them quite a bit in the 90s and 00s, but since 2010 I haven't used them once.
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Nope, haven't used a travel agent since Europe trip in 1991 and that was the only time - a family business which I had an incentive to use. Country Lass worked in the aviation industry so we have many opportunities for all sorts of deals not available through travel agents. A bit cranky that we will not be able to travel for some time.
 
Family member worked for Hello World and we used her for international travel, nice and easy outsourcing the painful work sometimes.

That said, she was let go by the agency at the start of this month so pretty unfortunate.
 
a tale of three operators / intermediaries, 6 month chart, % drop
FLT : FlightCentre in purple
WEB : Webjet in Blue
HLO : Hello world in red

A pretty unanimous dumping of all stocks during the early days of the pandemic. Maybe HLO has a larger AUS based travel, tour and accommodation business as it is recovering somewhat??
 
Wish I had a clue whether this is 'smart money' accumulating.
Not Held

Chart is all data Qtrly periods
 
At some point its cheap, there will be a business there after this passes, it can survive based on its cash reserves and lack of debt. Trick is knowing when to pull the trigger!
 
Galumay Flight Centre will survive no doubt and if it was just a matter of Covid I would say its a buy as some of their smaller competitors going out of business will increase their market share in the brick and mortar travel space.

But the real issue with a stock like Flight Centre has already been discussed long ago on this thread by us both is that its a structurally challenged business. The brick and mortar shopfront travel business is an outdated business that will gradually die off as the baby boomer generation passes the travel phase of their lives and enters the aged care home phase en mass.

Even if they manage to successfully pivot most of that business into the online space, it will be lower margin business operating in a more competitive space against more and larger competitors with a more price sensitive customer base as Millennials, etc. are more likely to shop around on Sky Scanner, Expedia, Webjet, Hotels.com, etc and force Flight Centre to price match those prices thus crushing their excess margins that they have been able to earn in the brick and mortar business. And in terms of the Corporate travel segment they have much lower market share and their customers on average are larger and more well informed (corporations, etc), so it won't be easy to try and grow there either. Although some companies like Corporate Travel Management seem to have done well out of the corporate travel space.
 
finicky said:
Wish I had a clue whether this is 'smart money' accumulating.
Not Held
Click to expand...
Would you think the dumb money is?
Not sure why the smarts would be either...
Any semblance of pre covid normalised air travel again is a long time away... being physically able to is one thing, the choice and cost to do so is another.
Corporate travel will be unlikely to recover to what it was.
Although, the SP will no doubt go bonkers on any news of international borders opening.
 
I wonder if the operators re claim the cancelled fares, then pay them out on an as requested basis. Maybe a lot of people just write it down to experience, or claim it on travel insurance.
 
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