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- 2 June 2011
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I designed a European holiday in Europe for the two of us. It was too complex for me to arrange alone but by providing the ideas, FLT filled in the details. It was like a conversation, both of us made mistakes but these were corrected and it was a great trip. Costs were trimmed down in the planning.
To me this to me is great FLT territory, person to person, design your own itinerary and shun pre-digested overpriced journeys.
I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well, especially when the internet was designed for things like travel (one big searchable database). I guess like most things as complexity and price increases people still like having someone to talk to. $10k on a holiday <> as buying a $50 shirt on line. Most people would probably still find organising a three week holiday daunting (working out times/schedules/hotels etc) and a lot of people just can't be bothered, so they go to a travel agent. Plus, they grey nomads love doing tours and places like FLT certainly offer plenty of those.
Didn't someone use that argument to Buffett regarding Coca Cola back in the 80s? I'm sure it was in one of his speeches. Some of his ideas about the Coke purchase are fantastic lessons, with thinking models than can be translated into other ideas....coffee is the first thing people stop drinking
when they short of cash
Yeah that's what I thought. I guess I travel enough that I'm pretty comfortable organising all my own stuff but can certainly appreciate why people like having someone else handle the logistics.
I do wonder though if people use FLT for domestic travel as much as for OS travel. The corollary being what happens when/if the AUD falls and international travel isn't as cheap as it currently is?
I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well, especially when the internet was designed for things like travel (one big searchable database). I guess like most things as complexity and price increases people still like having someone to talk to. $10k on a holiday <> as buying a $50 shirt on line. Most people would probably still find organising a three week holiday daunting (working out times/schedules/hotels etc) and a lot of people just can't be bothered, so they go to a travel agent. Plus, they grey nomads love doing tours and places like FLT certainly offer plenty of those.
You've got to think about who are a big segment of the market - the Grey Nomads as you mention. My mum is one and is about to head off on an overseas trip with another grey nomad friend of hers. Now some people amongst that group (and probably younger) would still want to do everything through a travel agent, but my mum and her friend are quite good at researching and finding deals online. Here is the clincher though - they are terrified at paying for anything online. They don't have the smarts to be confident that they are handing over their credit card details online to a legitimate business versus someone dodgy. They are scared of paying online unless it is through their internet banking. At the end of the day, I am the one that goes over everything, does a bit more googling to find if there is any better deal, vets everything and then I actually do all the online ordering for her using her credit card details. She is too scared of making a mistake or getting scammed.
You may have heard recently about the scammers who are hijacking the emails of legitimate accommodation providers and then posing as the legitimate business owner, taking incoming enquiries and orders and defrauding the customer of their money. They get the customer to pay by internet transfer and it is impossible to recover the money. The customer turns up to their destination and only then do they (and the accommodation provider) become aware of the fraud. A young Aussie bride was on the tele only a couple of weeks ago. She had booked a villa in Bali for her entire bridal party and it was only when they turned up and someone else was staying at the villa that they found out the had been scammed.
An FLT policy is too beat any available offer, that means, if u research your holiday as so many say they are good at, you will pay less at FLT.
My point/question before. When/if the AUD falls - will their international travel earnings be affected adversely? I would imagine so; the allure for a lot of people (especially young people) is a strong AUD all round.
Picked this up back in April 2012 so have been a very happy holder - other than wishing I had of been more committed and picked up more than 1000 shares. Anyway, cant sneeze at 100% return in a year.
Great company but my view of expected return at a price of $40 is only about 3% pa so hard to justify continuing to hold. Another good stock that has got way ahead of itself so looking to offload half my holding today.
Seems like a lot of people in this thread think that FLT has "run too hard" or "got ahead of itself".
What is this based on? Purely the fact that it has been rising?
FWIW, I think its around fair value now...wouldn't call it overly expensive. That said, I wouldnt be suprised to see it go back to ~$20 within 6 months:
From my limited knowledge of FLT, I'll add this:
It's at a P/E or around 19 from memory, with a long-run average of 15 for the market (not sure what the current P/E of the market is at).
If you believe what's mentioned around the AUD and their revenues, then you start to think the company has a big risk around currency which is not reflective of it's P/E.
(Not that this metric says everything, but it's a very basic way of looking at it).
Then again, many stocks are in this category at the moment (DMP, BRG as examples).
Value snatcher, at what price would FLT become overvalued for you if it isn't now? And why?
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