Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

EVN - Evolution Mining

Bell Potters' analyst's pick for a gold stock as at June.

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Chart of EVN is looking perilous after this morning's gap down break of a few months of support at ~7.50
e.g. maybe it's an active head and shoulders top? Or maybe it will just correct 50% of the rally - down to 6.50?

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Buy candidate if much lower

DAILY
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Evolution Mining (EVN) $7.52

"EVN -2.34%: delivered a solid Q4 result, with production and FY26 group guidance broadly in line.

FY26 gold production guidance of 710–780koz, in line with consensus
FY26 copper production guidance of 70,000-80,000 tonnes, in line with consensus
FY26 AISC guidance of $1720–1880/oz was 11% above consensus, ~15% higher YoY
Higher FY26 cost guidance was a notable negative in the result, though it’s being driven by inflationary pressures (~4%) and lower copper by-products which are largely temporary. As site-specific detail comes through in August, we expect the market to refocus on EVN’s improving throughput beyond FY26.

They managed to pay off ~$200m debt during the year, with gearing now back to just 15%, down from 25% last year. Good balance sheet, executing operationally and we think an ongoing commodity price tailwind will see prices rise over time.
MM remains long & bullish EVN"

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Wow, nice - and FY26 outlook possibly even better. Getting results now, like RMS, and unlike NST where all the cash is going into growth and reward is two years down the track.

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yes they targeted rising costs and boosted efficiency first , and then expanded after they were sure they could afford the expansion ,

but ( future ) investors should be half-expecting some speed bumps on the way ... floods , labor disputes etc etc they are irregular but not rare

chances are EVN will expand slowly via the JV projects ( they already have an interest in )
 
Evolution Mining (EVN) $9.38

"The Australian gold sector was a sea of red on Monday for no obvious reason; it felt like last week’s aggressive buyers, also for no apparent reason, had simply changed their minds! EVN was the ASX200’s worst performer, tumbling 5.25% after popping to new all-time highs last Thursday and Friday. We have been looking for gold and its related names to make new highs; they’ve delivered, and now for EVN, the next 15-20% move feels like a coin toss. The precious metal made new all-time highs overnight, up ~40% year-to-date, heading into the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, with gold ETFs in the US gaining ~1%, also posting new highs.

We are far from giving up on the gold bull market, but the risk/reward for EVN in the $9.50-$10 region is diminishing: MM holds EVN in the Active Growth Portfolio.
MM is now neutral towards EVN short term"

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