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CTM - Centaurus Metals

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I'm not sure how much of Sprotts ramping is pure ramping due to the fact they own a chunk of most of the things they review, or at least support the financing, but they do provide all the numbers to back up their PTs.

The numbers here seem pretty bullish when the stock is current at about $1.10.

View attachment 153056
@Sean K - yes.
I do believe, Sprott is to ramp up the price because they have got skin in the game and are not independent.
What they said was right - dramatic - not necessarily the result but qualified wording - 'the upside' how? why ?
I am watching every announcement to see my tip to go up :)
Stock specialist charts however giving a mixed buy sign on technical whereas the analysts recommendation is strong buy.
Today CTM has gone further down. I suspect the real upside will be seen/shown when DFS gets published in June 23 (?)

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Sean K

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@Sean K - yes.
I do believe, Sprott is to ramp up the price because they have got skin in the game and are not independent.
What they said was right - dramatic - not necessarily the result but qualified wording - 'the upside' how? why ?
I am watching every announcement to see my tip to go up :)
Stock specialist charts however giving a mixed buy sign on technical whereas the analysts recommendation is strong buy.
Today CTM has gone further down. I suspect the real upside will be seen/shown when DFS gets published in June 23 (?)

View attachment 153061


View attachment 153060

DFS mid 23, so they've given themselves some leeway with either side of July.

If they do use $11 a pound as an assumption giving an NPV of over $2.5b, then it might make some heads turn. I'm not sure why it couldn't be trading up to half that number going forward.
 
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DFS mid 23, so they've given themselves some leeway with either side of July.

If they do use $11 a pound as an assumption giving an NPV of over $2.5b, then it might make some heads turn. I'm not sure why it couldn't be trading up to half that number going forward.
Totally out of the blue, if dfs arrives early June 23 or late October23, what's your instinct on the market reaction πŸ˜€
 

Sean K

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Totally out of the blue, if dfs arrives early June 23 or late October23, what's your instinct on the market reaction πŸ˜€

I think Mr Market is asleep at the wheel on this. The jump from the SS assumptions to new prices in the DFS are not factored into the SP at all. Well, I don't think so anyway. Only negative maybe capex goes up significantly due to inflation or the met isn't as good as first assessed increasing costs of the plant. They've told us there's no permitting or local issues to deal with, but who knows on that front. Still risk, maybe that's why it's under the radar or trading at such a discount to likely NPV.
 
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Sean K

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Nickel is out of favour currently but it will rebound eventually.

Has come off a bit since hanging around the $30K mark for a while. There's confusing supply/demand scenarios out there which in the short term mean more volatility but yes, longer term it's looking good.

Should coincide with the time CTM are developing their mine and closer to production.

I think CTM's DFS will be done at a variety of price assumptions, maybe $9/10/11 a pound. Is that something like $20/25/30k a ton?

Screenshot 2023-02-16 at 6.40.12 pm.png

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Picked up some CTM for 1.04 this morning after a low ball bid I put in weeks ago got picked off.
Will add more if it drops further.
Mick
 
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Does this have a "cap raising imminent" feel atm?
Only 1 of the last 12 days has it closed higher than it opened.

I'll dip my toe in on Monday and see what the week brings.
 

Sean K

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Does this have a "cap raising imminent" feel atm?
Only 1 of the last 12 days has it closed higher than it opened.

I'll dip my toe in on Monday and see what the week brings.

About $30m in the bank so probably have enough to deliver the next MRE and DFS mid year. They're going through $11K a quarter so they should get to the DFS, ramp it, and then work out an overall finance package for development. Could be a small raising to get them to FID perhaps. But, then it's banks and/or issuing stock or a major decides to invest in them and finance it. Vale are probably their best option but I thought OZL was in the mix and now maybe BHP. After DFS we're entering the second wave of the Lassonde Curve.
 
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About $30m in the bank so probably have enough to deliver the next MRE and DFS mid year. They're going through $11K a quarter so they should get to the DFS, ramp it, and then work out an overall finance package for development. Could be a small raising to get them to FID perhaps. But, then it's banks and/or issuing stock or a major decides to invest in them and finance it. Vale are probably their best option but I thought OZL was in the mix and now maybe BHP. After DFS we're entering the second wave of the Lassonde Curve.


Would BHP sniff at Brazil after taking over Oz Minerals and descending nickel price πŸ€”
What if the dfs gets delayed
 

Sean K

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Would BHP sniff at Brazil after taking over Oz Minerals and descending nickel price πŸ€”
What if the dfs gets delayed

OZ have exploration and development projects in the region so BHP would have to assess them and make a decision on whether to advance them or ditch them as 'non core'. Maybe give them to S32. But, they will have a more significant presence if they hold onto OZ assets.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's more delays. I'm slightly suspicious of the last delay. Maybe the met isn't as good as desired or the POX choice isn't doing what it should. Capex blowouts perhaps and trying to find efficiencies.

They've said there's no indigenous issues as well, but only just down the road Vale have had major problems at Onca Puma.

So, plenty of known unknows still.
 
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I'm expecting them to go more the CHN route with cash, raise early and largish.

At $11m/qtr they will be financially weak in another 3 months.

They are probably pushing hard on the drilling to get to 1m tonnes contained metal so I can't see the spend slowing at all.

Yes, the Lassonde Curve, surely this time it will be different.:)
 
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Digging a bit more noticed CTM was only at 35.5 cents in November 22. some people made a killing in three months !!

 
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Digging a bit more noticed CTM was only at 35.5 cents in November 22. some people made a killing in three months !!

That may be 10 years and 3 months there minerπŸ™‚
 

Sean K

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They've put the back DFS AGAIN!!!!!!! It was supposed to be mid 23 and that was a delay, now end of the year. Blaming ALS in Perth for delays, but I don't buy it. There's something fishy here. There's obviously a problem with the met.

Screenshot 2023-03-15 at 9.58.27 am.png
 

Sean K

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This is either incompetence, or irresponsibility. Or, the deposit is crap.

Best case is that it's been irresponsible to promise these timelines when they knew they were going to be pushed back due to changes to the mine design and timelines in the met testing. 🀯

March 22.

Screenshot 2023-03-15 at 11.08.23 am.png


Feb 23

Screenshot 2023-03-15 at 11.08.37 am.png


Mar 23

DFS late 23, FID late 24.

In one year the DFS has been put back by 12 months.
 
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This is either incompetence, or irresponsibility. Or, the deposit is crap.

Best case is that it's been irresponsible to promise these timelines when they knew they were going to be pushed back due to changes to the mine design and timelines in the met testing. 🀯

March 22.

View attachment 154402

Feb 23

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Mar 23

DFS late 23, FID late 24.

In one year the DFS has been put back by 12 months.
I would look into current market scenario and as the ASX report says, delay is regrettable but the capacity of service providers has made the decision to delay than compromising the quality. By any standard the result of the pilot test is an excellent one .
Of course DYOR and DNH.
 

Sean K

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I would look into current market scenario and as the ASX report says, delay is regrettable but the capacity of service providers has made the decision to delay than compromising the quality. By any standard the result of the pilot test is an excellent one .
Of course DYOR and DNH.

I almost can't trust what they're saying at the moment. It's extremely disappointing. The big CR in early 22 was to get to the DFS by end of 22.

They've added resources and better defined the deposits in the meantime and other DFS work, but something is badly wrong within some part of the company. Promising such time lines and being out by so much is unacceptable. 12 months FFS.
 
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I almost can't trust what they're saying at the moment. It's extremely disappointing. The big CR in early 22 was to get to the DFS by end of 22.

They've added resources and better defined the deposits in the meantime and other DFS work, but something is badly wrong within some part of the company. Promising such time lines and being out by so much is unacceptable. 12 months FFS.
Rolled the rest of them out today.
Too big a risk for me, will have to look elsewhere.
Mick
 
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