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CTM - Centaurus Metals

Sean K

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Not looking for any other options ATM.
Think there will be some significantly cheaper bargains in the resources sector in the near to medium term.
Keeping my powder dry.
Mick

Mick and @Miner I can't find anything else on the ASX that has a decent deposit that's not owned by BHP or IGO. All the others are explorers or have very small beer. I'm hanging around till it's close to production, so another 3 years perhaps. Lot's could happen in the meantime but I'm playing the long game with this thing. Still early in the Lassonde Curve and once Indonesian production slows and the Nickel surplus of 2023 runs into deficit in 24, PON should still be around the 12lb/$24000tn ish. That'll put an NPV on CTM of well over $2.5b. Just a waiting game for me now.
 
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Presentation from the MD of Centaurus Metals at Swiss Mining Institute Investment Conference on 22nd March at Zurich (World's finance capital)
1679319270025.png
 

Sean K

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Presentation from the MD of Centaurus Metals at Swiss Mining Institute Investment Conference on 22nd March at Zurich (World's finance capital)
View attachment 154700

Must be palm pressing for finance for the Capex. No other reason to be in Switzerland really, except for the vistas.

Probably best to avoid the Credit Suisse dudes.
 

Sean K

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Mick and @Miner I can't find anything else on the ASX that has a decent deposit that's not owned by BHP or IGO. All the others are explorers or have very small beer. I'm hanging around till it's close to production, so another 3 years perhaps. Lot's could happen in the meantime but I'm playing the long game with this thing. Still early in the Lassonde Curve and once Indonesian production slows and the Nickel surplus of 2023 runs into deficit in 24, PON should still be around the 12lb/$24000tn ish. That'll put an NPV on CTM of well over $2.5b. Just a waiting game for me now.

I was going to add MCR to the list of Ni miners on the ASX and it's timely Wyloo have lobbed a bit to see how much they think MCR is worth on current resources and production profile.

Wyloo valuing MCR at about $750m.

MCR resource is 5.9Mt @ 3.8% for 223Kt contained Ni, producing about 10Kt Ni sulphate pa.
CTM resource is 100Mt @ 1% for 1Mt contained Ni, planning to produce well over $20Kt Ni sulphate.

CTM current MC $340m.

Will obviously be diluted through further development and Capex, but that's a very big difference in prospective value.

Buying more CTM.
 

Sean K

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I thought this support zone was going to hold over the past few weeks but it speared through after the delay in the DFS. Contributing to that, PON corrected from $30K to 23K since Feb. In retrospect I should have taken some more off the table above $1.40 but I was only thinking longer term at the time and see this eventually being priced in a similar fashion to a DEG or CHN with about half their comparable resource value in the ground, less perceived country risk. So, MC of about $1b. Those comparisons have been made in previous posts. If this was in WA, it'd be trading at multiples of this price. But, it's not in WA. :-(

Screenshot 2023-03-27 at 11.19.36 am.png
 
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I was going to add MCR to the list of Ni miners on the ASX and it's timely Wyloo have lobbed a bit to see how much they think MCR is worth on current resources and production profile.

Wyloo valuing MCR at about $750m.

MCR resource is 5.9Mt @ 3.8% for 223Kt contained Ni, producing about 10Kt Ni sulphate pa.
CTM resource is 100Mt @ 1% for 1Mt contained Ni, planning to produce well over $20Kt Ni sulphate.

CTM current MC $340m.

Will obviously be diluted through further development and Capex, but that's a very big difference in prospective value.

Buying more CTM.
I doubt that Wyloo is going to get MCR based on that valuation.
Its trading well above the bid price, and I am not sure how many current owners will take that price.
I am betting that they are going to have to come up with something north of 1.55 before any other bidders push it up further.
Still makes the valuation of CTM pretty low .
Not sure if there are problems, given the stalling of the DFS again, the risk is to high compared to potential rewards.
I think I may have made my profits on CTM in this run.
Will go back into it if my risk/reward ratio improves, but just not yet.
Mick
 

Sean K

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CTM has got itself off the canvas. Perhaps helped along with the MCR business. But, results like this help too. These are well outside the current MRE. Looks like this might have the plumbing they have stated in that it's similar to other deposits in the region that go very very deep.

Screenshot 2023-03-29 at 10.21.07 am.png
 

Sean K

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In regards to the plumbing, they keep comparing this to the Vale Salobo copper mine in the district that goes to double the depth of this. They obviously think that's what going to happen here with these cartoons they're putting out. Note how deep their pink shaded shoots are running without drill holes down there. It doesn't look like it will, but perhaps the shoots might widen here and there as well. But, that might be just academic in the short term, it's already a significant mine that they need to get on their bike with. Hopefully some good news on the met from ALS in the next two months to allay any fears it's going to be very complicated to extract the Ni. The Cu and Co credits are a bit of a sideshow at the moment to me.

Screenshot 2023-03-29 at 10.27.56 am.png

Screenshot 2023-03-29 at 10.34.25 am.png
 
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In regards to the plumbing, they keep comparing this to the Vale Salobo copper mine in the district that goes to double the depth of this. They obviously think that's what going to happen here with these cartoons they're putting out. Note how deep their pink shaded shoots are running without drill holes down there. It doesn't look like it will, but perhaps the shoots might widen here and there as well. But, that might be just academic in the short term, it's already a significant mine that they need to get on their bike with. Hopefully some good news on the met from ALS in the next two months to allay any fears it's going to be very complicated to extract the Ni. The Cu and Co credits are a bit of a sideshow at the moment to me.

View attachment 155100
View attachment 155101
II really need a mining engineer on hand. As you say, its going to be complicated to actually get the stuff out.
I am trying to imagine in my already old head how they are going to mine those adjacent pipes. Should be interesting working that one out.
Mick
 
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II really need a mining engineer on hand. As you say, its going to be complicated to actually get the stuff out.
I am trying to imagine in my already old head how they are going to mine those adjacent pipes. Should be interesting working that one out.
Mick
Mick
@mullokintyre
You may consider to read the ASX announcements specially the recent one with team details published 15 March 23 and check the existing and new team profile (page 5-8
DNH
Probably you would get your answers and good luck :)
 

Sean K

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II really need a mining engineer on hand. As you say, its going to be complicated to actually get the stuff out.
I am trying to imagine in my already old head how they are going to mine those adjacent pipes. Should be interesting working that one out.
Mick

Yeah, they haven't mentioned the rock around the mineralisation that I have seen which will determine how they mine it underground. That probably won't happen for a decade or so while they work on the open pit that is going to be something like 3km x 1km x 400m or so.

The April drilling to see how deep it goes will be interesting.

Screenshot 2023-03-29 at 11.01.22 am.png
 
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Thank you @Miner and @Sean K , but it reinforces my feeling that there will not be big results on CTM for a while.
I have no doubt it will be a good earner in the future, but I see a period of stagnation until the DFS comes out, then the feasability study, the go ahead for the project , design phase and finally the inevitable capital raising to pay for it all.
i have made some good profits from CTM, so have no qualms about leaving some on the table for others while I go searching for 'the next big thing'.
May well go back in if prices fall a good bit, but unless there is a general stock market crash, i can't see that happening.
Mick
 

Sean K

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Thank you @Miner and @Sean K , but it reinforces my feeling that there will not be big results on CTM for a while.
I have no doubt it will be a good earner in the future, but I see a period of stagnation until the DFS comes out, then the feasability study, the go ahead for the project , design phase and finally the inevitable capital raising to pay for it all.
i have made some good profits from CTM, so have no qualms about leaving some on the table for others while I go searching for 'the next big thing'.
May well go back in if prices fall a good bit, but unless there is a general stock market crash, i can't see that happening.
Mick

Fair enough. Good plan. I was waiting for the DFS that I thought was going to shock the market to the upside and see a significant jump in valuation. That's still my thoughts, just a waiting game for me now. I don't need to divert funds to better opportunities in the short term. Depending on how things pan out I might even just hold this expecting it to follow the Lassonde Curve for value. In the orphan stage now and the second peak is on first production, so that's a long way to go...

Will be interesting to see how Sprott ramp this announcement in the next few days. I don't think it will change their $3.10 PT.
 
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Thank you @Miner and @Sean K , but it reinforces my feeling that there will not be big results on CTM for a while.
I have no doubt it will be a good earner in the future, but I see a period of stagnation until the DFS comes out, then the feasability study, the go ahead for the project , design phase and finally the inevitable capital raising to pay for it all.
i have made some good profits from CTM, so have no qualms about leaving some on the table for others while I go searching for 'the next big thing'.
May well go back in if prices fall a good bit, but unless there is a general stock market crash, i can't see that happening.
Mick
Mick
A baby takes 9 months delivery time. There are prematurely delayed births over the expected date of delivery.
Expectation of a too premature baby leads often to lifelong complications.
Parents need to have patience and care for a successful delivery.
 
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This section draws my attention (increased cash higher assets and lesser liabilities with an excellent drilling result just published yesterday) even if there is a loss of more than 2021 which is understandable with so much drilling and study work going

4.2 Financial Position At the end of the year the Group had a cash balance of $34,047,722 (2021: $8,259,389) and net assets of $49,328,699 (2021: $16,750,646). Total liabilities amounted to $8,065,982 (2021: $10,099,118) and consisted of trade and other payables, financial liabilities, lease liabilities, and employee benefits.


Off take discussions
Off-take Discussions Off-take discussions are continuing in relation to the products to be produced from Jaguar. Vale has the right to purchase products at arm’s length market-based pricing under the original acquisition agreement for the Jaguar Project. Centaurus retains discretion over what nickel products will be produced at Jaguar. The introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act by the US Government and the Critical Raw Materials Act of the European Union has highlighted the strategic importance of energy metals like nickel and those that can be sourced in geopolitically stable jurisdictions with a low-emission footprint. Brazil fits these criteria well as it is South America’s largest pro-mining jurisdiction, the 8th largest global economy and currently more than 80% of the country’s grid power is delivered from renewable sources. It is anticipated that the Jaguar Project will be able to secure 100% renewably sourced power by the time it is in production. With its very large metal endowment, the Jaguar Project is extremely well placed to capitalise on the fast-growing electric vehicle and battery metals market.

Construction Training Programs During the year, the Company further advanced the enrolment process for construction training with over 1,900 applications to date having been received from local communities. The Company intends to train up to 1,500 people in various trades that will allow them to be able to seek employment once construction of the Jaguar Project commences. The training programs are intended to be conducted in conjunction with local industry training college (SENAI) in 2023 and 2024
DNH
 

Sean K

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This section draws my attention (increased cash higher assets and lesser liabilities with an excellent drilling result just published yesterday) even if there is a loss of more than 2021 which is understandable with so much drilling and study work going

4.2 Financial Position At the end of the year the Group had a cash balance of $34,047,722 (2021: $8,259,389) and net assets of $49,328,699 (2021: $16,750,646). Total liabilities amounted to $8,065,982 (2021: $10,099,118) and consisted of trade and other payables, financial liabilities, lease liabilities, and employee benefits.


Off take discussions
Off-take Discussions Off-take discussions are continuing in relation to the products to be produced from Jaguar. Vale has the right to purchase products at arm’s length market-based pricing under the original acquisition agreement for the Jaguar Project. Centaurus retains discretion over what nickel products will be produced at Jaguar. The introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act by the US Government and the Critical Raw Materials Act of the European Union has highlighted the strategic importance of energy metals like nickel and those that can be sourced in geopolitically stable jurisdictions with a low-emission footprint. Brazil fits these criteria well as it is South America’s largest pro-mining jurisdiction, the 8th largest global economy and currently more than 80% of the country’s grid power is delivered from renewable sources. It is anticipated that the Jaguar Project will be able to secure 100% renewably sourced power by the time it is in production. With its very large metal endowment, the Jaguar Project is extremely well placed to capitalise on the fast-growing electric vehicle and battery metals market.

Construction Training Programs During the year, the Company further advanced the enrolment process for construction training with over 1,900 applications to date having been received from local communities. The Company intends to train up to 1,500 people in various trades that will allow them to be able to seek employment once construction of the Jaguar Project commences. The training programs are intended to be conducted in conjunction with local industry training college (SENAI) in 2023 and 2024
DNH

Looks like they've got enough cash to deliver the DFS but then they'll need another CR at that point I reckon. Maybe that's the plan. Wow the market with some amazing numbers and then put the cap out.

Most Nickel hopefuls and producers keep hammering on around the battery growth and additional supply required to support EV growth but the main use is still in metals. There's various graphs out there dividing up the application of Ni but it's generally about 65% stainless steel and 15% batteries. So, while increased battery demand is very good, general economic development is just as important. Need Chindia to keep moving to the cities and out of poverty.

Screenshot 2023-03-31 at 8.30.39 am.png
 

Sean K

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Sprott's update on the last drilling results. No change to PT, $3.10.

Managed to slip in a few MCR comparisons to show how undervalued this is.

Screenshot 2023-04-05 at 2.21.25 pm.png
 

Sean K

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DFS now revised to Q4 23 from mid year, which was already delayed by 6 months. This is extremely disappointing. Makes me seriously wonder what's going on.

I wouldn't be surprised with some punters losing patience with this management team. Really poor effort.



Screenshot 2023-04-28 at 10.06.45 am.png
 
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