Hi rcw, M8, CSL have more problems other than those few mentioned above.
Such as an improved and believable set of Financials.
Then they have to find a cure for their regular Foot in Mouth announcements.
Then they have to stop the Analysts continuous & stupid Target Price calls of $350+.
A hint, $223.55, $211.04, then $175.45.
Sorry to be so blunt M8, but that needed 2B put into the CSL arena.
DrB.
quite so.Getting rid of Seqirus!
Share buyback reintroduced!
Reducing headcount, increasing profit centres and decreasing low profit making centres.
Bit of old fashioned accounting -go Joy Linton!
I do think that CSL was getting a bit fat and lazy.
I fully agree but we are in Australia where many retired investors have blind faith in blue chips..because it worked for so long..look at cba SP.CSL is trading at $230, but my AI fundamental analysis suggests a significant disconnect from intrinsic value.
Running a discounted cash flow model with what should be reasonable assumptions - 13.25% cost of capital to reflect the transformation risks, 5.5% revenue growth which is already optimistic for a market leader, and margins gradually normalising from 33% to 30% - produces a fair value between $140-160 per share.
The current share price appears to embed expectations that don't align with business realities. The market seems to be assuming CSL can grow at nearly 5% forever, despite GDP growth constraints around 2.5% and the mathematical impossibility of growing faster than your end market indefinitely when you already command 25% market share. It's also pricing in margin expansion to levels the company has never achieved, even during its best years.
The disconnect likely stems from the market underappreciating just how complex CSL's current transformation is. This isn't a simple cost-cutting exercise - they're attempting to reduce headcount by 15% while maintaining quality in life-critical manufacturing processes that take 9-12 months to complete. They're simultaneously executing a demerger of Seqirus, which means untangling IT systems, allocating corporate costs, and potentially losing synergies. And they're doing this while Takeda, fresh from digesting Shire, is coming after their core franchises with renewed scale and capabilities.
Perhaps most concerning is the margin situation. CSL currently enjoys EBITDA margins 460 basis points above the industry median. History shows these kinds of premiums don't last - they attract competition, invite pricing pressure, and eventually revert toward industry norms. With Medicare Part D reforms already impacting revenues and European pricing pressure intensifying, the pathway to margin compression seems clear.
Yet despite these mounting challenges, CSL still trades at premium multiples to its peer group, suggesting investors haven't fully adjusted their expectations to the new reality.
Great post @RypieeeCSL is trading at $230, but my AI fundamental analysis suggests a significant disconnect from intrinsic value.
Running a discounted cash flow model with what should be reasonable assumptions - 13.25% cost of capital to reflect the transformation risks, 5.5% revenue growth which is already optimistic for a market leader, and margins gradually normalising from 33% to 30% - produces a fair value between $140-160 per share.
The current share price appears to embed expectations that don't align with business realities. The market seems to be assuming CSL can grow at nearly 5% forever, despite GDP growth constraints around 2.5% and the mathematical impossibility of growing faster than your end market indefinitely when you already command 25% market share. It's also pricing in margin expansion to levels the company has never achieved, even during its best years.
The disconnect likely stems from the market underappreciating just how complex CSL's current transformation is. This isn't a simple cost-cutting exercise - they're attempting to reduce headcount by 15% while maintaining quality in life-critical manufacturing processes that take 9-12 months to complete. They're simultaneously executing a demerger of Seqirus, which means untangling IT systems, allocating corporate costs, and potentially losing synergies. And they're doing this while Takeda, fresh from digesting Shire, is coming after their core franchises with renewed scale and capabilities.
Perhaps most concerning is the margin situation. CSL currently enjoys EBITDA margins 460 basis points above the industry median. History shows these kinds of premiums don't last - they attract competition, invite pricing pressure, and eventually revert toward industry norms. With Medicare Part D reforms already impacting revenues and European pricing pressure intensifying, the pathway to margin compression seems clear.
Yet despite these mounting challenges, CSL still trades at premium multiples to its peer group, suggesting investors haven't fully adjusted their expectations to the new reality.
There are gap-downs and then there are ... gap-downs ! That one was a biggie so if the theory holds , it will have to be filled eventually . I'm thinking , could there be an easy $ 40 in this ?Buying at current prices for trading not investing
One week on and CSL 's trading at about $ 215 on low volume again .2nd day of big volume
It's alarming to think : today's buyers for almost 600,000 CSL shares seem completely unaware of what's likely to happen in just 9 trading - days time . Even more worrying : the Pro's buying another 1/4 mill of them in the 25 minutes after hours trade at $ 212.70 . Surely they're not chasing that lousy dividend of $ 2.49 when they have plainly seen the S. P. drop today by another $ 3 . Aren't these guys supposed to know what they're doing ?Have to watch out for these ex dates .
"Sonnez les matines ! Sonnez les matines !I admit defeat, i exited today at 212.5on that parcel, did not jump back as i expected from mu fellow retail Australians
Well @Dona Ferentes ,"Sonnez les matines ! Sonnez les matines !
Din, din, don. Din, din, don"
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