CSL - CSL Limited

[DrBourse]

Hi rcw, M8, CSL have more problems other than those few mentioned above.
Such as an improved and believable set of Financials.
Then they have to find a cure for their regular Foot in Mouth announcements.
Then they have to stop the Analysts continuous & stupid Target Price calls of $350+.
A hint, $223.55, $211.04, then $175.45.
Sorry to be so blunt M8, but that needed 2B put into the CSL arena.
DrB.

A quick look at the chart above shows 10 sell signals that were given on 1/8/25 - not sure why the CSL faithful are bothered by today's pullback.
Anyhow it's only another $4.60 till CSL cracks the $223.55 Support line - then where does CSL go....

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Getting rid of Seqirus!
Share buyback reintroduced!
Reducing headcount, increasing profit centres and decreasing low profit making centres.
Bit of old fashioned accounting -go Joy Linton!
I do think that CSL was getting a bit fat and lazy.

quite so.

Demerging its third-biggest business CSL Seqirus, which makes flu vaccines .... Seqirus reported $US2.2 billion in sales and $US1.03 billion in operating profit in FY25 – numbers pretty steady on the prior year. It accounts for about 15 per cent of a $131 billion company’s profit and should be big enough to be an ASX 100 standalone company, if not ASX 50. This is big-time dealmaking from CSL.

cast off the plodder.
In a bid to optimise R&D spending and shorten the time it takes to get drugs into the market, McKenzie will cut the number of R&D sites around the world from 11 to six, focused on major biotechnology hubs such as Melbourne, Boston and Switzerland.

Paul McKenzie says the division, now known as CSL Seqirus after a string of acquisitions, stands apart from the Behring and Vifor pharmaceutical businesses because of the way it gets paid.

In the pharmaceutical and rare disease markets, CSL is selling to patients, albeit via doctors and other healthcare providers. But in the vaccine game, CSL sells mainly to governments, typically through big, seasonal tenders.

“They are fundamentally different business models,” McKenzie says.

 

[Rypieee]

CSL is trading at $230, but my AI fundamental analysis suggests a significant disconnect from intrinsic value.

Running a discounted cash flow model with what should be reasonable assumptions - 13.25% cost of capital to reflect the transformation risks, 5.5% revenue growth which is already optimistic for a market leader, and margins gradually normalising from 33% to 30% - produces a fair value between $140-160 per share.

The current share price appears to embed expectations that don't align with business realities. The market seems to be assuming CSL can grow at nearly 5% forever, despite GDP growth constraints around 2.5% and the mathematical impossibility of growing faster than your end market indefinitely when you already command 25% market share. It's also pricing in margin expansion to levels the company has never achieved, even during its best years.

The disconnect likely stems from the market underappreciating just how complex CSL's current transformation is. This isn't a simple cost-cutting exercise - they're attempting to reduce headcount by 15% while maintaining quality in life-critical manufacturing processes that take 9-12 months to complete. They're simultaneously executing a demerger of Seqirus, which means untangling IT systems, allocating corporate costs, and potentially losing synergies. And they're doing this while Takeda, fresh from digesting Shire, is coming after their core franchises with renewed scale and capabilities.

Perhaps most concerning is the margin situation. CSL currently enjoys EBITDA margins 460 basis points above the industry median. History shows these kinds of premiums don't last - they attract competition, invite pricing pressure, and eventually revert toward industry norms. With Medicare Part D reforms already impacting revenues and European pricing pressure intensifying, the pathway to margin compression seems clear.

Yet despite these mounting challenges, CSL still trades at premium multiples to its peer group, suggesting investors haven't fully adjusted their expectations to the new reality.

 

[finicky]

CSL Limited (CSL) $225.50​

CSL –16.89%: Shares experienced their worst fall since 2008 after the FY25 result highlighted weakness in the Behring division and revealed a major strategic restructure including a spinoff of Seqirus, which has created more questions than answers.

• FY25 revenue $15.56 billion (+5.1% y/y) estimate $15.76 billion
• Net profit $3.22b (+11% y/y, vs estimate $3.17 billion
• Behring division at $11.16b (+5.2% y/y) but flat Immunoglobulin (IG) growth in 2H

Vaccine unit Seqirus will be demerged in FY26, alongside a planned A$750 million buyback, >$500 million in targeted annual cost savings by FY28, a 3000-person (15%) workforce reduction, and the closure of 22 plasma centres with one-off restructuring costs expected at $700–770 million pre-tax.
While the spinoff, buyback, and cost-out program might be attractive long-term, investors are still erring on the side of certainty – the restructure adds a level of execution risk and uncertainty to the story, and the cynic would say companies do these sorts of things to disguise underlying issues.

The Match Out: Rocks and diamonds for the ASX today - Market Matters

The Match Out: Rocks and diamonds for the ASX today Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

 

[qldfrog]

CSL is trading at $230, but my AI fundamental analysis suggests a significant disconnect from intrinsic value.

Running a discounted cash flow model with what should be reasonable assumptions - 13.25% cost of capital to reflect the transformation risks, 5.5% revenue growth which is already optimistic for a market leader, and margins gradually normalising from 33% to 30% - produces a fair value between $140-160 per share.

The current share price appears to embed expectations that don't align with business realities. The market seems to be assuming CSL can grow at nearly 5% forever, despite GDP growth constraints around 2.5% and the mathematical impossibility of growing faster than your end market indefinitely when you already command 25% market share. It's also pricing in margin expansion to levels the company has never achieved, even during its best years.

The disconnect likely stems from the market underappreciating just how complex CSL's current transformation is. This isn't a simple cost-cutting exercise - they're attempting to reduce headcount by 15% while maintaining quality in life-critical manufacturing processes that take 9-12 months to complete. They're simultaneously executing a demerger of Seqirus, which means untangling IT systems, allocating corporate costs, and potentially losing synergies. And they're doing this while Takeda, fresh from digesting Shire, is coming after their core franchises with renewed scale and capabilities.

Perhaps most concerning is the margin situation. CSL currently enjoys EBITDA margins 460 basis points above the industry median. History shows these kinds of premiums don't last - they attract competition, invite pricing pressure, and eventually revert toward industry norms. With Medicare Part D reforms already impacting revenues and European pricing pressure intensifying, the pathway to margin compression seems clear.

Yet despite these mounting challenges, CSL still trades at premium multiples to its peer group, suggesting investors haven't fully adjusted their expectations to the new reality.

I fully agree but we are in Australia where many retired investors have blind faith in blue chips..because it worked for so long..look at cba SP.
So unhil cba shares really collapse down to earth, csl and similar will stay up

I entered yesterday not on fundamental value but on this view, i hope to make short term profit within 2 months, providing the whole market stays up.
I also halved my usual packet size..
Buying at current prices for trading not investing
If selling a year ago and putting in a TD then, CSL would have had to be above 330 today to match that return.
The little exercise posted a few posts back.
Yet the faithful stay in, and will carry on imho.

 

[DrBourse]

CSL is trading at $230, but my AI fundamental analysis suggests a significant disconnect from intrinsic value.

Running a discounted cash flow model with what should be reasonable assumptions - 13.25% cost of capital to reflect the transformation risks, 5.5% revenue growth which is already optimistic for a market leader, and margins gradually normalising from 33% to 30% - produces a fair value between $140-160 per share.

The current share price appears to embed expectations that don't align with business realities. The market seems to be assuming CSL can grow at nearly 5% forever, despite GDP growth constraints around 2.5% and the mathematical impossibility of growing faster than your end market indefinitely when you already command 25% market share. It's also pricing in margin expansion to levels the company has never achieved, even during its best years.

The disconnect likely stems from the market underappreciating just how complex CSL's current transformation is. This isn't a simple cost-cutting exercise - they're attempting to reduce headcount by 15% while maintaining quality in life-critical manufacturing processes that take 9-12 months to complete. They're simultaneously executing a demerger of Seqirus, which means untangling IT systems, allocating corporate costs, and potentially losing synergies. And they're doing this while Takeda, fresh from digesting Shire, is coming after their core franchises with renewed scale and capabilities.

Perhaps most concerning is the margin situation. CSL currently enjoys EBITDA margins 460 basis points above the industry median. History shows these kinds of premiums don't last - they attract competition, invite pricing pressure, and eventually revert toward industry norms. With Medicare Part D reforms already impacting revenues and European pricing pressure intensifying, the pathway to margin compression seems clear.

Yet despite these mounting challenges, CSL still trades at premium multiples to its peer group, suggesting investors haven't fully adjusted their expectations to the new reality.

Great post @Rypieee

It’s great to see someone else in ASF that understands what an Intrinsic Value is, and who understands how to calculate it correctly.

Then there is the Commonsense approach you apply to stock valuations that most people ignore.

IMO ‘The New Reality’ you refer to has been in vogue with CSL for two to three years now – the CSL faithful are just a bit slow on the uptake.

Cheers.
DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Good Onya CSL $223.55 - it only took you 18 mths after my call for you to get there, Now what The #$% are you going to do Huh.
That must be 15 correct calls now.
Watch out for the next 3.
Then the 4th should be a nice "Random Number" mentioned in my recent posts.

So now that CSL has landed below $211.04, that makes the new IV, Exactly $150.03’, as I’m not allowed to use Random Numbers like $150.00 in my post #994 dated 14/7/25.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

$208.35

that's exactly the low, among many others, I thought it would get to.

 

[dyna]

Buying at current prices for trading not investing

There are gap-downs and then there are ... gap-downs ! That one was a biggie so if the theory holds , it will have to be filled eventually . I'm thinking , could there be an easy $ 40 in this ?
However , this is now , the 2nd day of big volume , so the Insto's are not properly done with their dumping , yet . Sure gives one pause to think , before pressing that "risk on " button . My little CXA friends are pulling their horns in a bit now , so when they're all done , I 'll come around for a closer look-see .

 

[dyna]

2nd day of big volume

One week on and CSL 's trading at about $ 215 on low volume again .
Still not tempted yet as there's probably another few bucks of downward movement when the $ 2.49 ( Unfranked ) ex dividend date comes around on 9 th September . Have to watch out for these ex dates .

 

[ShareSuccess]

At The end of The day, it's Not about who's Right & who's wrong, it's about.....is there money to be made in Trading CSL & my Answer is YES!

This is a BIG Company & it's Not Going Broke Anytime soon so i will Average Down with any Spare Funds i Have Knowing that Eventually i Will Make money!!

Not Rocket science, just Simple Maths!...At some Stage the Big Boy's will have to start Buying!

I bought my 1st parcel at $240, am i worried...NUT ha ha i've got all the time in the world

 

[ShareSuccess]

There are so Many so called Great investors out there in the world who Built their so called reputations on Predicting Doom & Gloom about companies & the economy!

They Make 100 Predictions, get 99 Wrong & build a Career on Getting 1 Right!

 

[dyna]

Have to watch out for these ex dates .

It's alarming to think : today's buyers for almost 600,000 CSL shares seem completely unaware of what's likely to happen in just 9 trading - days time . Even more worrying : the Pro's buying another 1/4 mill of them in the 25 minutes after hours trade at $ 212.70 . Surely they're not chasing that lousy dividend of $ 2.49 when they have plainly seen the S. P. drop today by another $ 3 . Aren't these guys supposed to know what they're doing ?

 

[DrBourse]

Something for the CSL followers to think about.

Charts 1 & 2 are the OTC version of our CSL, it’s self-explanatory in many ways – however a few hidden pointers for you to consider, which Candle for yesterday’s trade will you use in your calculations, the Red Candle or the Green Candle.

The Candle that your software produces may not be what you need.

Next hidden pointers are the indicators – the CCI & MFI are very unhappy as they are “Underwater so to speak”, AND a very short Linear Regression may turn into a further ST Downtrend.

Then there is the DMI @ Nr 11 on the DMI Indicator Grid.

Then there is the other ADR on the FWB Exchange, Chart Nr 3.

Then there is our ASX:CSL Chart.

Make sure your TA Software provider is giving you what you need..

Cheers.
DrB

 

[qldfrog]

I admit defeat, i exited today at 212.5on that parcel, did not jump back as i expected from mu fellow retail Australians

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I admit defeat, i exited today at 212.5on that parcel, did not jump back as i expected from mu fellow retail Australians

"Sonnez les matines ! Sonnez les matines !
Din, din, don. Din, din, don"

 

[qldfrog]

"Sonnez les matines ! Sonnez les matines !
Din, din, don. Din, din, don"

Well @Dona Ferentes ,
I do not brag too much when my trade works vs a certain captain on this site
And as far as i know i was not the one owning CSL a year ago and accumulating eye watering lost opportunities since that time
So the question is : did you sell yet? bought back?

 

[Knobby22]

Should have commented on my yearly pick CSL.
Chose it as a stable force in what I thought would be a struggling year.
Unfortunately, in hindsight it was obvious that the vaccine area would struggle under the existing environment and the split is going to hurt the CSL sp for the remainder of this year.
I do think this is a company to keep your eye on, and if it gets too low , say drops another 10%, I will be looking at buying.