Chance of recession if Labor wins???

[roland]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I don't think that there is an ideal choice of either sides. No matter what happens and which side comes out on top it will affect the market and for me, I look forward to changes - either up or down, doesn't matter - buy on red, sell on green

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Precisely what the Liberals have done and Labor is promising. The same outcome is also implied, albeit in a somewhat hidden manner, by Greens policies.

Nah man, I don't know what you are talking about. They just fund their policies from selling drugs.

 

[Buster]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Precisely, Rudd has gone from battle street to the top of his game, to me another great Aussie success story, with such personal success he will be sure to deliver on Nationwide LONGTERM success.

Ha.. Most people I know that are 'great' success stories have clawed thier way to the top with little regard to who they trash to achieve thier goals.. and lets not forget the missus who's worth somewhere in the order of $140 Mil..

I'm not one to get too engrossed in the 'political' system because it seems to breed only back stabbing self centered wankers with little understanding of the issues for real people.. I'm very much in the 'devil you know' and 'don't fix what ain't broke' camp (I'm sure there are many that think things are broke and everything is unfair/unaffordable etc.. but I'd tip your not old enough to remember when things were REALLY broke..)..

Recession and Labour?? Don't rightly know, but I do remember the clout that the unions had during previous Laobour Govt's.. and we really don't need to go there again IMHO..

My .2c anyway

Regards,

Buster

 

[2BAD4U]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

.. Recession and Labour?? Don't rightly know, but I do remember the clout that the unions had during previous Laobour Govt's.. and we really don't need to go there again IMHO..

My .2c anyway

I'll see your 2c and raise you 2c.

Let me declare at the start that I am a Liberal voter, but basic economics and the business cycle means that we will have a contraction (possibly recession) phase, regardless of which party is in power, it's just the depth of the trough that will vary. So a recession is the least of my worries. In fact it was Hawke and Keating that carried out some of the best reforms. The recession "we had to have" was in a period when we didn't know the Reserve Banks objective, at least now we know they target inflation at 2% - 3%. The Current Account Defecit now runs at 95% private. All this thanks to Labor floating the dollar and removing some of the foreign finance barriers. This means we now have foreign investment rather than an increase in foreign ownership, so some of the economic management arguments are a bit of a joke.

This is why I look at other issues such as unions, environment, etc., in a lot more detail and to me returning to the bad old days of unions is not good. Having to pay people out for unfair dismissal when they wouldn't work in an iron lung or keeping them on the books, what a choice. Either option cost business money and keeps someone else more deserving out of a job. Also causes business to think twice before hiring people and then we start the downward spiral.

That's my 2c (or is that 4c :screwy

 

[skint]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I'll see your 2c and raise you 2c.

Let me declare at the start that I am a Liberal voter, but basic economics and the business cycle means that we will have a contraction (possibly recession) phase, regardless of which party is in power, it's just the depth of the trough that will vary. So a recession is the least of my worries. In fact it was Hawke and Keating that carried out some of the best reforms. The recession "we had to have" was in a period when we didn't know the Reserve Banks objective, at least now we know they target inflation at 2% - 3%. The Current Account Defecit now runs at 95% private. All this thanks to Labor floating the dollar and removing some of the foreign finance barriers. This means we now have foreign investment rather than an increase in foreign ownership, so some of the economic management arguments are a bit of a joke.

This is why I look at other issues such as unions, environment, etc., in a lot more detail and to me returning to the bad old days of unions is not good. Having to pay people out for unfair dismissal when they wouldn't work in an iron lung or keeping them on the books, what a choice. Either option cost business money and keeps someone else more deserving out of a job. Also causes business to think twice before hiring people and then we start the downward spiral.

That's my 2c (or is that 4c :screwy

A Liberal voter who recognises the economic reforms of the previous Labour government! A rare breed indeed! However, you then proceed to state your concerns about unions. Don't forget that it was the unions that first proposed a 2-3% inflation target that was adopted by Keating and also the Reserve. Under Labour, the unions also agreed to a wage freeze (1st Wages Accord) to contol the 1981-1983 wages breakout that occured with Howard as treasurer. Labour and the unions also agreed in later Wages Accords to tie wage increases to productivity and further, dismantled pattern bargaining in favour of enterprise bargaining.
These reforms (along with the floating of the dollar etc.) have dwarfed anything concocted by Howard/Costello. In short, the important reforms have occured moreover because of the unions and Labour, rather than in spite of the unions and Labour. The days of the wharfies etc. having excessive power are long, long gone and anyone who believes the tripe being spat out by the coalition is living in pixieland. If one attends to the commentary of macroeconomists, the overwhelming opinion is that the chances of a recession has bugger all to do with who's in power.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

In fact the spending they have both promised , will undoubtedly add to the dilema .
Negligible spending on priorities is at a peak ! Instead of trying to save lives on the roads they are putting the money in pockets , which only ends up in some company or corporations coffers . usually a bank or other lender ( Visa etc. ) or the local Myers or Woolworths etc. , it can get worse , like the money that ends up in pokies , you know the nappy money ..........

After 11 years the Libs have stumbled across the fact that Australian roads are atrocious , our hospitals are in disrepair . The list could go on infinitely I'm sure , especially if we start on about transport routes for all the new developments and housing projects , isolated from amendities or wharves that are ridiculously inadequate ......... and we could keep going ......

But , then we must look at the fact that a lot of the blame can also be laid squarely at the feet of state Labor governments , who are also so far off the mark that it makes a trip to Mars more like a walk up the street in comparison .

Then ..... we can start blaming banks and lenders , for letting over zealous plastic carriers , go on spend binges , where the majority are incompetent money managers .

Of course , then we should blame ourselves for being a " I want it now " generation , prepared to ignore the warning signs , just so we can watch the footy on a 109" flat screen . The money would have been better spent on RIO , BHP or FMG shares . Unfortunately the theory of putting hard earned money to work , has fallen to the wayside nowdays , instead they spend it before they have saved it , that's letting other people put their money to work for them , usually a bank or foreign corporation . Either way the money doesn't benefit the countries economy , the benefits go elsewhere , like China , Taiwan , England , USA or India . When these stop receiving any benefit and stop production and lending .......... ouch !

That could lead to R ....Re ....Recess....Recession !

The mining boom will keep the wolves at bay for at least decade or so yet , from our shores , but two of the above mentioned countries are already in strife .
The USA now already dropping rates faster than you can feed pellets to the chooks , with the BoE poised to do the same . So expect a softening , like melting butter .

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Having to pay people out for unfair dismissal when they wouldn't work in an iron lung or keeping them on the books, what a choice. Either option cost business money and keeps someone else more deserving out of a job. Also causes business to think twice before hiring people and then we start the downward spiral.

Under the current legislation, it isn't just unfair dismissal laws. There isn't any provision, well, there isn't any, for businesses to pay out earned entitlements if they decide to kick up a stink. I don't see why theft should be dealt with any differently when it comes to business.

 

[mullys]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chance of Recession is 100% but what is has more of a chance with labour in (more than 100%) is that inflation will be starting to make its long road upwards. Wages will increase !!! But along with that interest rates too will rise in a big way. Australians are already maxed out. What is going to happen when people start loosing their houses? Probably the same as what is happening to the US now. Hopefully if wages rise this might be enough to counter the effects of interest rate rises. History says if the US sneazes we catch a cold. Has the world changed so much for us not to listen to the past?

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Its Interesting to note that Liberals most likely successor Turnbull now supports ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and abandonment of the Coalition's hardline industrial relations (IR) scheme.

SO wouldnt really matter who ran the country, their policys now seem identicle!

 

[The Mint Man]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Its Interesting to note that Liberals most likely successor Turnbull now supports ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and abandonment of the Coalition's hardline industrial relations (IR) scheme.

SO wouldnt really matter who ran the country, their policys now seem identicle!

Between Kyoto and sorry to the aboriginals... just the start of setting labor up for a 2010 landslide back to the Libs.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Its Interesting to note that Liberals most likely successor Turnbull now supports ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and abandonment of the Coalition's hardline industrial relations (IR) scheme.

SO wouldnt really matter who ran the country, their policys now seem identicle!

It will be good to see the end of the neo-con influence in Oz.

I could once again be comfortable with my natural party preference. Just get rid of the Abbot, Downer, Andrews and several others and, err, jeez there won't be many left, will there. LOL

 

[Junior]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chance of Recession is 100% but what is has more of a chance with labour in (more than 100%) is that inflation will be starting to make its long road upwards. Wages will increase !!! But along with that interest rates too will rise in a big way. Australians are already maxed out. What is going to happen when people start loosing their houses? Probably the same as what is happening to the US now. Hopefully if wages rise this might be enough to counter the effects of interest rate rises. History says if the US sneazes we catch a cold. Has the world changed so much for us not to listen to the past?

Don't be scared! Don't judge too early, give K Rudd a chance.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Between Kyoto

Kyoto was a very popular move. We are meeting the targets anyway...

 

[The Mint Man]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chops, yes but for how long?
Have you seen what it has done to NZ? I read somewhere that it will cost them anywhere from $500mil to $1bil (they're not sure yet) in what is essentialy a fine for not meeting it.
I'd rather not sign it and say we met it anyway then sign it and risk huge loses.
This is why I think the libs will agree with labor, they are setting them up! After all Rudd is now in power so at the end of the day its almost totaly up to him.
I'm not saying that Turnbul dosn't agree with kyoto but in oposition (as you have most definitely seen from Labor) you can afford to hedge your bets!!!! and easily get away with it when the next election comes around.

Just my opinion you dont have to agree

Cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chops, yes but for how long?
Have you seen what it has done to NZ? I read somewhere that it will cost them anywhere from $500mil to $1bil (they're not sure yet) in what is essentialy a fine for not meeting it.
I'd rather not sign it and say we met it anyway then sign it and risk huge loses.
This is why I think the libs will agree with labor, they are setting them up! After all Rudd is now in power so at the end of the day its almost totaly up to him.
I'm not saying that Turnbul dosn't agree with kyoto but in oposition (as you have most definitely seen from Labor) you can afford to hedge your bets!!!! and easily get away with it when the next election comes around.

Just my opinion you dont have to agree

Cheers

There are a couple of differences between us and NZ. We for one have massive amounts of land. Something that the Japanese have been looking at especially, to use for their offsets. Plus we are coming from a base where our emissions per head are enormous, compared to NZ. It is quite conceivable we will meet the next round of targets purely through consumer choice i.e. green power, and good corporate citizenship, without having to force anything.

 

[The Mint Man]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

i.e. green power, and good corporate citizenship, without having to force anything.

fair enough.... might end up buying some Grenearth shares after all, hedge my bets

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

fair enough.... might end up buying some Grenearth shares after all, hedge my bets

If I wasn't that way inclined already. I'd seriously be looking at trading some of the eco stocks anyway. Some of them look incredibly technically strong.

 

[YELNATS]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Its Interesting to note that Liberals most likely successor Turnbull now supports ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and abandonment of the Coalition's hardline industrial relations (IR) scheme.

SO wouldnt really matter who ran the country, their policys now seem identicle!

Me-tooism works, just ask Kevin.

Turnbull has supported Kyoto ratification for a while. This put him at loggerheads with Howard earlier this year.

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Yes So that Ruddy good bloke take Labor from Left to centre and Turnbull take Lib Right to centre - seems like they should all hook up and rename themselves Laboril or Libor ?


Howard didnt seem to like Meetoism, hence his banishment to the dustbin of History!

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chops, yes but for how long?

It's easy to meet the targets, and keep inflation down, by switching the economy from manufacturing (which uses a lot of energy) to simply digging things up and selling them (which uses far less energy).

Also remember that it has the effect of transfering development to the likes of China, India etc which aren't bound by emissions limits. This accelerated development ought to push overall coal demand up thus boosting prices and volumes of Australian coal exports. That's already happening to some extent and the coal industry is responding with expanded production.

And it only runs until 2012 anyway. We could always walk away then if we wanted to. I don't think we will, at least not whilst it's boosting demand for Australian minerals, but the option is there.

As for fines for non-compliance, there are plenty of countries in that situation. Last time I heard, it was the majority. That could ultimately come down to the situation where if everyone breaks the law, nobody goes to prison because you can't lock everyone up. Have to wait and see for that one.

(If anyone wants to debate Kyoto, I think we ought to start another thread on that and keep this one for the recession etc.)