CDA - Codan Limited

[finicky]

New all time highs
Got off another 1,000 @ 22.24
Earnings call still more than two weeks away: Thursday 21 Aug. I got antsy.

Held
Reducing

5 minute chart with a delay

 

[finicky]

Sold 1,000 @ 24.03

Will have to be an extremely positive earnings report 21 August to maintain this price.
They say let your winners run but I want to maintain a strongish cash position for the eventual market fall. Codan will likely be in my top five stocks to buy in that situation.

Held
Holding half

DAILY

 

[finicky]

Much anticipated by holders but doesn't seem to justify the rocket under the share price over the last 4 months?
Conditions in West Africa for the gold detector market have improved (ex Sudan) and company expresses confidence Minelab can sustain momentum.
Communications growth will continue in FY26, especially in defence related.
Says open to strategic acquisitions supported by strong balance sheet - reduced its debt in FY25.

Held

 

[galumay]

Another solid year from CDA, very impressive growth in revenue flowing right through to NPAT and strong cash conversion. Just a great business, not really much to say, the financials speak for themselves. Another great capital allocator, operating a business that provides plenty to allocate!!

 

[finicky]

Holy smoke, this has gone up another 1.80 (6.8%) and is now $28 a share!
Seems pretty crazy to me.
Selling half - at an average $21 roughly I think - hasn't turned out to be such a good move.
It's cost me a new M2 Mazda* on paper after tax I think, haha.
*My personal yardstick for value - a new car

 

[finicky]

Seems an appropriate place to put this excerpt from a Greg Canavan communique today:

"... but remember, it’s a bull market! Most people are doing ok. But it’s also an environment where people get overconfident. Capital becomes impatient, less discerning and will buy up just about anything. That’s why bull markets can make you look like a genius. Don’t believe it! Stay humble.

That’s why it’s important to have a process and stick to it. Bull markets can test your discipline. They cause you to speculate when you think you’re investing. But sticking to your process prevents that.

I think a lot more speculation than investing is happening right now. Valuation principles are out the window. Many good quality stocks are priced for very poor long-term returns. But when everyone is having a good (short-term) time, no one really cares about long-term outcomes.

When earnings meet expectations, or at least don’t disappoint, prices keep rising. But richly priced stocks that disappoint get hammered.

Just look at what happened to CSL [ASX:CSL] and James Hardie [ASX:JHX], down 17% and nearly 30% on the day of their results respectively.

I can tell you I’m really struggling to find decent businesses that have a chance of delivering on our 12% return target. This is why the cash balance is at 25% of the portfolio. It will hurt us if the market keeps rallying, but will give us good options if a sell-off unfolds in the coming months."

 

[finicky]

Still creeping up - fresh 52 week (and all time) high intrday @ 29.93.

Held
Holding?

FWIW: From 4 days ago on twitter:
Canaccord Genuity on Codan $CDA:

"CDA's FY25 results again highlighted that the company is a high margin, high returns business that has an accelerating growth profile, is at the centre of four key trends (gold, drones, defence, public safety), and has M&A optionality that could unlock far more shareholder value, in our view.

"While valuation multiples have rerated higher, the stock remains cheaper than peers despite growing faster and with higher margins.

"We have an FY26E PE of 33.8x, and EPS growth of 29%. We maintain our BUY rating, and after some large upward earnings revisions, we increase our price target to $28.26 (from $17.90)."

 

[finicky]

Earlier today I tried to sell 500 CDA @ $3.08
The bid was @ $30.08
Thanks Nabtrade for pausing lengthfully on "authorizing" then stating "refused" to my offer

 

[finicky]

Codan Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT A$29.60

Held
Almost reduced again today @ $30.08

 

[mullokintyre]

Codan Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT A$29.60

Held
Almost reduced again today @ $30.08

Deftly Played Finicky, I like your approach of selling portions on the way up, no one ever goes broke selling at a profit.
Mick

 

[galumay]

...and up nearly 30% in a week! Now my largest position in the SMSF & more than a 5 bagger in 3 years. In the personal PF its a 30 bagger.

And people say buy & hold doesnt work! Water the flowers & pull the weeds as Peter Lynch said.

 

[finicky]

Got off 1,000 @ 30.54
Fuel for the crash somewhere up ahead. Feel better, got antsy again.

Held

 

[frugal.rock]

Earlier today I tried to sell 500 CDA @ $3.08
The bid was @ $30.08
Thanks Nabtrade for pausing lengthfully on "authorizing" then stating "refused" to my offer

Got off 1,000 @ 30.54

Thanks NAB ?!

 

[finicky]

For sure. My veins ran chilled water.

 

[finicky]

Monday or Tuesday might be an interruption (Monday ex dividend) but if I didn't have a view on valuation and just went by the chart without knowing the company I'd pick it to go higher.
*The daily chart would then look a bit like a 'pole and pennant' continuation pattern, noting that Friday closed not far off the high.
*The second chart is 5 days of 5 minute intervals and reminds me of a 'cup and handle' continuation pattern.
Obviously I would not buy give the valuation. There's something mechanical going on with the persistance of buying that I don't understand.

Held
Holding

DAILY

5 MINUTES

 

[finicky]

El smasharooni today, down 3.5% and tomorrow is ex div.
Puts the previous prediction in doubt, lol
Maybe this low so far will hold? But that seems in doubt given tomorrow is ex.
If the August comp had extended by just one day @Garpal Gumnut with SMS would have won!

Held
Holding

5 MINUTE CHART

 

[galumay]

Speeding ticket from the idiots at the ASX, it must be such a pain responding to nonsense like this, moronic questions like "If CDA is covered by sell-side analysts, the earnings forecasts for those analysts." As if its CDA's fault if the analysts got their predictions wrong!
Most of the questions the ASX could check in much less time than this stupidity involves.

 

[finicky]

If the August comp had extended by just one day @Garpal Gumnut with SMS would have won!

That comment should have gone on the FAL thread

 

[finicky]

So yesterday was down with the dividend live, buyers today are getting their shares stripped of the 16c dividend (not yesterday), yet the price is up 36c

5 MINUTE CHART