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So finally you long term holders are advocates for
Averaging Down even if below your buy price?
Believe you haven’t made a loss until you sell an
investment at a price lower than you bought it.
It really did all start from delivering News papers as a kid, those first CBA shares I purchased 25 years ago when I was 14 were bought for 1 reason only, which was to generate dividend income so that could one day give up delivering newspapers, hahaha.
My mindset has never changed, for me it’s all about owning enough income generating assets so that I don’t have to spend my days folding and delivering papers, it took me 22 years, but I was able to give up all paid work and retire at 36, simply by working and saving hard, and ploughing my savings into buying great businesses for less than they were worth and holding them for as long as they remain great businesses.
I split my time between learning about business valuation rather than trading, and working to earn the capital to invest.
It really did all start from delivering News papers as a kid, those first CBA shares I purchased 25 years ago when I was 14 were bought for 1 reason only, which was to generate dividend income so that could one day give up delivering newspapers, hahaha.
My mindset has never changed, for me it’s all about owning enough income generating assets so that I don’t have to spend my days folding and delivering papers, it took me 22 years, but I was able to give up all paid work and retire at 36, simply by working and saving hard, and ploughing my savings into buying great businesses for less than they were worth and holding them for as long as they remain great businesses.
I split my time between learning about business valuation rather than trading, and working to earn the capital to invest.
Another great insight you‘re governed much by circumstance and necessity.yes i am ( but not trading as a professional would ) , but that wasn't what i planned starting out in 2011
i originally planned to buy and hold ( and add as i had spare cash ) but then sensible opportunities came along ( now and then )
now obviously if you have a stable salary and surplus income , standard buy/hold ( and add ) strategies probably suit you better
however here i am on a disability pension and plenty of gaps between medical appointments , i can dabble and learn instead of Facebook or watching old movies ( i hadn't watched because i was working back then )
the DOWNSIDE is it is hard for me , now , to recover from capital losses , so i would rather not blow up the entire nest egg ... sure i am going to lose some , but i also hope to save a golden goose egg or two for my later years
Thanks for your best wishes. Feel terrible had COVID now isolating and have antibiotics.Firstly, hope you feel better!
Secondly, thank you for getting back. This is fun, and educational (for me, anyway)
Thirdly...
Running a stop (5%, 10%, 50%, volatility based, market regime based...name it)...it doesn't work with my systems. Maybe I'm missing something that others get. I cannot get the data to justify a stop of any kind, based on the model I run.
So, why wouldn't I let an individual stock run 50% from it's high. History shows that I'm better off holding (as long as the system calls it a hold), because - on average (which is what systems trading is all about - it will rebound more as a genuine, original signal vs selling and buying a new signal.
What a great insight.I remember CBA floating for $2.50 I had enough for 5000 but never bought them!
I was a lawnie failed Leaving and now own a serious company. Could have retired at 50 but enjoy the challenge of business far too much.I get bored very easily.
Another great insight you‘re governed much by circumstance and necessity.
Thanks for your best wishes. Feel terrible had COVID now isolating and have antibiotics.
The 20% isn’t a stop it’s both a buy and sell signal in a systematic method discussed in Radge’s book.
I have always been a fan of averaging down - however analysing my results over 15 years (as posted above) the best hindsight result is achieved by NOT averaging into anything, fixed entry size, one entry, and never selling at all.So finally you long term holders are advocates for
Averaging Down even if below your buy price?
So Cynicals win rate is the highest I’ve ever seen
80% long term winning trades is world class.
30% is common
50% is unheard of!
Exactly, this is what I'm always looking for, and one of the reasons I've had some success due to the fact that i tend to buy into stocks that later get taken over because someone else saw some value as well, something i like to ask myself when considering entry is - what's the chance i can sell this stock at x point in the future for more than i paid for it.The real opportunity, in my opinion, is someone who can spot a business that should be worth $600M one day, and is currently being sold off by the idiot at $200M or whatever. The person who can do that as a thing, and not just a one off, is a very rare gem.
Yep just an observation and bit of a revelation for me. 95 stocks but maybe 200 trades and another 250 or so dividend reinvestments.Cynical is not claiming a high win rate but revealing an observation, if he had held all stocks for up to 15 years his win rate would be very high.
Not knowing Clinicals numbers, I'm guessing if he left his money in, his number of trades would be much much lower, so the outcome profit would be much less. He may easily have missed some or all of the 5 big winners he mentioned.
That IMO opinion, is priceless Cynical, the problem I've found is the good stocks keep going up, getting out and trying to get back in, is like selling a great property overlooking Sydney Harbour on the hope prices will fall and a lower re entry price will present.I have always been a fan of averaging down - however analysing my results over 15 years (as posted above) the best hindsight result is achieved by NOT averaging into anything, fixed entry size, one entry, and never selling at all.
As for 80% long term winning trades, i put that down to time in the market, 15 years is a lot of time, plus my habit of buying low points in the price cycle and putting some effort into not buying rubbish, never ever bought hype or breakouts.
I remember the very first stock i bought was Santos after watching the evening news report that their plant blew up...looking over my trade history i was thinking that any idiot should be able to get similar results over the same time frame, its close to impossible not to.
What a great insight.I remember CBA floating for $2.50 I had enough for 5000 but never bought them!
Now imagine if instead of focusing on charting / trading strategies, you just focussed on identifying quality businesses and putting together savings to invest, and each year you repeated the same $12,500 initial investment and dividend reinvestment strategy, so that you invested-
1992 - $12,500 in CBA
1993 - $12,500 in Woolworths
1994- $12, 500 in BHP
etc etc etc over the years, the compounding effects would have been huge, and today you would have an enormous portfolio, sure you might have ended up investing in a couple of Dogs, but the compounded effects of the winners far out weigh the $12,500 you put on any dogs that went to zero.
VC: 'Can what you did...be taught?'
Philosophically (and this should be obvious from my earlier comment) I would expect (and appreciate) you saying, something like, 'no. It was a unique set of factors (your experience, discretionary nouse about certain industries...or whatever)...that put you on that path.
But, before I assumed that as your answer (as, I'm always willing to challenge myself and change my mind)...I wanted to ask what you think.
If someone wants to replicate my results (of modestly beating the market)...I just (a) give them this stack to read (a 'how markets work' framework) + (b) this amount of basic statistical mathematics + (c) this 'course' in behavioural finance psychology (the most important bit) and you can have my results...beat the market (and therefore, most investors out there - retail investors & fund managers)...but only modestly (in my opinion).
I want / need you to say, 'no'...but I have to ask: can what you did, be taught...and replicated?
Finally...and more importantly - do you have the newspaper delivered, these days?
Yes it did but as a customer I remember being given the opportunity to buy pre-listing and I'm sure it was $2.50CBA floated at $5.40, not $2.50 so you would have only got 2,314 shares for your $12,500.
Not to mention that, simply finding and holding quality businesses over the years would be a lot less work than trying to trade in and out all the time.
1, it helped having parents that were "spend less than you earn" type people, that encouraged me to save and invest from a young age, and who as long as I was investing all the money I earned delivering papers and other jobs then they would give me cash here and there to go to the movies/ice skating/bowling etc with friends, So I got to invest 100% of my earnings and start the learning process young, while still enjoying my teenage years.
Its really interesting looking at others experience and mine couldn't be more at 180 degrees to yours.If I had to summarise the factors that lead me to where I am it was the early adoption of a good savings ethic, a willingness to read and learn about investing and being exposed to the right authors/reading material that helped me figure out how it all works (if I had read different books based on different ideas I would be in a different place), meeting and having the support of a girl that jumped on board with my delayed gratification process from the start and was happy to live below our means, being fit and healthy enough to earn a decent wage from which to save.
when a share is down 20% on MY average price i ask the question IF i should buy more ( i don't always buy , but i do research and calculate ) not so quick to take the cash off the table though somewhere in the 120% to 150% before i ask that question
That IMO opinion, is priceless Cynical, the problem I've found is the good stocks keep going up, getting out and trying to get back in, is like selling a great property overlooking Sydney Harbour on the hope prices will fall and a lower re entry price will present.
If you look back EVERY share that continues to rise will BREAKOUT of an area----never ever bought hype or breakouts.
Its 20% down from the last highest high
Then 20% up from the last lowest low.
Not 20% of your average price. Big difference.
I really dont think you'd have property investment as we do if prices of Harbor waterfront properties could fall 80%
Its not a good analogy as you dont have the liquidity you have with stock.Your NOT selling in the HOPE prices will fall your selling when its CLEAR they are falling and have PROVEN they have by falling 20%. I dont think Harbor property has EVER fallen 20% in a year let alone 2 weeks or even a week!---or even a day!
If you look back EVERY share that continues to rise will BREAKOUT of an area----
Hype---- well there are opportunities all over the place.--BitCoin , CPH made me $80K in a few weeks with $20K
Tech-Boom ,Trump elected ---on the opposite end COVID GFC. Dont underestimate the opportunities enveloped in Hype.
90% of the population are the Tortoise and 89% remain in their shell.
10% are the Hare and fortunately for the Tortoise enough succeed.
Having good and influential parents is a common theme, mine taught me nothing - 0. I had no idea about money or investing at 17 lived in a bubble. My net is close to 1m now should surpass it by the time im 40 but I don't own property in aus, still feel act and look like the poorest man on the street. The fear of being a **** kicker and respect for money is something that stays with you for life. This is a line in the sand I need to draw for my kids so they don't start the game on extra hard difficulty
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