BLY - Boart Longyear Group

[sammy84]

I held BLY for far too long because of the vast amount of BUY ratings that were still out there made me ignore my stop (Stupid!). Whilst it might be a good company, it has had its earning forecasts slashed in recent times and the debt levels are worrying in this market atmosphere.

 

[Lachlan6]

This is one huge downfall of relying on 'consensus' ratings from brokers who fall in love with certain stocks. There looks to be no respite where BLY is concerned. The stock is locked in an aggressive wave (3) suggesting that any move higher should only come in the form of some form of congestion pattern probably a triangle and just be a small bounce before new lows are made again. There are quite a few similar looking stocks within the mining and resources sector. They have been sold off ruthlessly.

 

[psychic]

Time to bump this thread, plenty of action on BLY today. I jumped in just before close with a small parcel at 9.1 cents, I hope I have the bottom

 

[TheAbyss]

Time to bump this thread, plenty of action on BLY today. I jumped in just before close with a small parcel at 9.1 cents, I hope I have the bottom

If you have found a bottom it will be a temporary one. These guys deoend on mining operations paying them for drilling services and the like for explorations purposes etc. The resources downturn only really kicked in last quarter of 2008 so the balance sheet news is certain to be worse once the first half of 2009 is calculated.

Could be totally wrong.

 

[psychic]

Well at this stage I am in profit from the time of purchase so I am looking at the potental upside rather than downside. A swing to the upside is much more possible given its oversold VWAP of 10.27

 

[surfingman]

Just putting it out there, would Boart be a possible target for the likes of a large miner?

The has been strong consolidation in many other areas but not yet mining services.

 

[tigerboi]

Re: BLY-profit slump due in 2009

If you have found a bottom it will be a temporary one. These guys deoend on mining operations paying them for drilling services and the like for explorations purposes etc. The resources downturn only really kicked in last quarter of 2008 so the balance sheet news is certain to be worse once the first half of 2009 is calculated.

Could be totally wrong.

id say your spot on there abyss...profit at the top was $157m on revenues of $1.8b giving about 9%,they have 1.5b shares & i think debt of $558m due in the 2ndQ 2010.bad time to be owing that much.

next year would most likely see profit tumble to below $100m,so buying now is not recommended i can see how stop the clock/kb sorry psychic? may think its the bottom but if you check out its chart you can see it was pumped 2 weeks before the anns then the rip back down.

i noticed that a big % of their rigs are in the us & none in europe imo it is a big chance of seeing 6c in the next few weeks or so,but i dont know alot about this company.

more chance of a merger than a takeover

 

[psychic]

6 cents within weeks in a bit of a downramp IMO. Technically a rebound in share price over coming weeks is much more probable.

 

[bigdog]

The BLY 12 month high was $2.3900 with low on Friday of $0.0890 and closed at $0.0950.

The share price has tumbelled to the 1/26 of the 12 mth high!

I am very tempted to buy in on Monday!

 

[Miner]

Technically it is natural that with drastic reduction in exploration and mining volume the consumption of products manufactured by BLY will be very less.

Nonetheless it is unbelievable to see the price plunge on Friday inspite of reasonably good financial result

Is there some hidden contract fail ?

Should Monday will see further down considering the sympathy with DJ fall on Friday ?

Chartists - what your charts say about the movement of this stock ?

Cheers

 

[Aka]

My take on BLY

1. would buy for 0.07 - .075
2. upgrade machnery - bad timeing ; now in the cost cutting mode because they sence there are togh time ahead!.
3. No final dividend , cash saving mode. Might not pay it next year as well (need to service large debt) .
4. As somebody mentioned effected byu global downturn.
5. Balance Sheet does not look nice. Loan - long term (80% of 806 mln USD maturity next year). next yar with slowing revenue and may be profit might be not easy to refinance.

Long term invstment - at lower price may be.
Do not hold

Happy hunting

 

[tigerboi]

Re: BLY-looks like it might see 6c today!

gee looks like the 6c target might come about 2 weeks earlier than i thought?

smells like a cap raising to me...6c still a good target imo...

anyhow once the market knows kb/stop the clock/psychic buys in then it tanks...good system...tb

 

[psychic]

Lol, love your work t.b. your a master at this game, well done. I will buy at 6 cents too

 

[tigerboi]

Lol, love your work t.b. your a master at this game, well done. I will buy at 6 cents too

these days its a real waiting game & doing your solid research has never been so important...if you wait & dont rush in you will be rewarded but having said that i believe the all ords will zig zag till the end of the year possibly early next year...tb

 

[TheAbyss]

I wouldn't be so quick as to rush in at 6 cents when and if it gets there.

Surely you would wait for some sort of bottom forming pattern first rather than pick a number and jump straight in?

Stocks need to level out then show some sort of incentive to buy in on their way up i would have thought?

The market is littered with stocks that look and probably are cheap but why buy now unless they show signs of recovering first?

The chart (see attached full company sp history)on BLY is in a downward spiral and there is no must buy taget that i can see as it is constantly making new lows. If you are after bargains at least find something that is turning around otherwise at best you will be parking your money for a period of time whilst it forms a base to grow from unless you believe it has some major news to cause an up spike?

 

[tigerboi]

Re: BLY-COMM BANK REDUCES IVR TO 0%

I think your talking of psyhic about the 6c buy?i didnt set a buy target for this as i said its a waiting game for at least the rest of the year & with the dow getting bashed up again this will surely get to around the 6c mark & as you point out best wait for a pattern to form.

The 78% of rigs in the us bly currently has leaves them at the mercy of the us economy,if they could diversify into europe & the sub continent with their work they may go ok,6c was just a rough estimate going on the $157m net profit this year with a possible fall back under $100m most likely.

i understand the rip down has been caused by comm bank calling in the margin loans by reducing the ivr from 60% to 0% so that would seem to be the reason...TB

 

[joeyjoejoe]

I wouldn't be so quick as to rush in at 6 cents when and if it gets there.

Surely you would wait for some sort of bottom forming pattern first rather than pick a number and jump straight in?

Stocks need to level out then show some sort of incentive to buy in on their way up i would have thought?

The market is littered with stocks that look and probably are cheap but why buy now unless they show signs of recovering first?

The chart (see attached full company sp history)on BLY is in a downward spiral and there is no must buy taget that i can see as it is constantly making new lows. If you are after bargains at least find something that is turning around otherwise at best you will be parking your money for a period of time whilst it forms a base to grow from unless you believe it has some major news to cause an up spike?

what you say is all true.. but also consider this...... you only need the tail end of the graph to turn upwards in the slightest movement (on the long term graph) to make 100% return on your money.. by looking at that long term chart is easy to be scared away but im sure those here getting in are not in it for the long term (although i could be wrong)

 

[trillionaire#1]

well i couldnt help myself and bought a small parcel at 6.8 cents today
SP strengthened during the arvo as buying side grew.

probably not a long term hold but i think margin calls drove the stock
a few cents lower than it deserves?

 

[tech/a]

Hmmm

I had 2 of their staff apply for positions with our Company.
Word is they wont have theirs for long.

Cant say that makes me full of confidence.

 

[kengaikl]

I believe the SP is way under rated. Investors are comparing it to companies like CNP because BLY is also highly geared. But there is one difference, BLY is a service provider not an holding company like cnp. When there is asset deflation CNP has to write off asset values and make big losses not BLY.