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Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

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Known as the Martingale Strategy...

"It is considered a risky method of investing. It is based on the theory of increasing the amount allocated for investments, even if its value is falling, in expectation of a future increase. When the Martingale Strategy is used in betting, the gambler must double the bet when faced with a loss."

Question is where is the money (USD) coming from? USD reserves, borrowed, volcano bonds?

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They are selling the previous purchases.
The staement never said they were keeping them.
Mick
 
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They are selling the previous purchases.
The staement never said they were keeping them.
Mick

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings Lose 60% of Their Value in Crypto Selloff


"Finance Minister says government hasn’t sold any Bitcoin"

"The country’s 2,381 Bitcoin are now worth $41.5 million at current prices, below the roughly $105 million the government paid to purchase them..."


So purchasing one BTC per day will save the day? What a disaster for an impoverished country with a crackpot authoritarian leader who has bought into the delusion the Bitcoin will be his country's financial salvation.
 
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From AFR...

Top investors caught up in bitcoin miner’s near collapse​

"A raft of high-profile Australian investors are caught up in a $333 million investment wipeout after the near collapse of Nasdaq-listed Australian bitcoin miner Iris Energy as a US creditor demanded it repay debts due immediately.

Investors caught out by Iris’s 94.5 per cent share price fall since its November 2021 initial public offer include Phil King’s Regal Asset Management, Platinum Asset Management, Alex Waislitz’s Thorney Opportunities, Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures, Wilson Asset Management, and OC Funds Management.

Shares in the green bitcoin miner founded by former Macquarie Group bankers Will and Daniel Roberts plunged 18 per cent on Monday after it spooked investors by admitting US creditors were demanding immediate repayment of $US107.8 million in loans it took to buy bitcoin mining equipment.

Iris said its wholly owned subsidiaries set up as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) would default on the debt and that creditor New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) had no recourse or financial claim on the Nasdaq-listed Iris parent group.

The collapse has delivered a $US220 million ($333 million) wipeout for investors after its November 2021 initial public offer of 8.3 million shares at $US28 a share – time-stamped at the top of the cryptocurrency bubble."
 

wayneL

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Is it all unravelling? Perhaps this is why gold has been going ok the past few weeks.

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I still have this question: WHY should Bitcoin be worth anything?

Yeah I know about proof-of-work blah blah blah, but I can dig a 10 foot hole and fill it up again and prove that I did it, doesn't mean a damn thing because nobody gives a rats whether I did that or not.

Gold I can hold in my hand.
 
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They could go to a online casino start with 1 btc on black if it doesn't come keep doubling it same type of a martingale deal, pull the band aid off and get it over and done with
 
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I still have this question: WHY should Bitcoin be worth anything?

Yeah I know about proof-of-work blah blah blah, but I can dig a 10 foot hole and fill it up again and prove that I did it, doesn't mean a damn thing because nobody gives a rats whether I did that or not.

Gold I can hold in my hand.
In summary, network effect, scarcity, decentralization, speculation and the greater fool principle. Worth nothing in itself but has a price. The original vision was Proof-of-Reputation (PoR) not proof-of-work (PoW) for network security.

Gold is real inflation proof money, and a gold backed digital currency would make it more easily divisible, fungible, and portable. No need then to handle or transport gold coinage or return to using redeemable notes.
 

wayneL

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In summary, network effect, scarcity, decentralization, speculation and the greater fool principle. Worth nothing in itself but has a price. The original vision was Proof-of-Reputation (PoR) not proof-of-work (PoW) for network security.

Gold is real inflation proof money, and a gold backed digital currency would make it more easily divisible, fungible, and portable. No need then to handle or transport gold coinage or return to using redeemable notes.

I like the whole decentralisation concept, but is that a real thing? All cryptocurrencies, as things stand, must come back to being valued in fiat (and I do realise it is the same with everything else).

Because everything else comes back to having some tangible representation. A gold coin or ingot, a barrel full of crude oil, set number of bushels of grain, a known percentage share of a company.

Even fiat has pieces of paper or plastic with pretty colours printed on them.

Cryptos exist in the ether ( which made in interesting choice of name for it's cryptocurrency namesake).
 
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I still have this question: WHY should Bitcoin be worth anything?

Yeah I know about proof-of-work blah blah blah, but I can dig a 10 foot hole and fill it up again and prove that I did it, doesn't mean a damn thing because nobody gives a rats whether I did that or not.

Gold I can hold in my hand.

I agree.

I still don't understand why it has value, let alone why it should appreciate in value over time.

Happy to be proven wrong...I'm not saying I know with any degree of certainty that it's future is doomed, I just still do not understand why the value of a coin will necessarily be higher than it is now, in 5/10/20 years' time. And in fact it could be far lower, or zero.

* Does not generate income
* Is not tangible, or tied to anything else which is tangible
* Yes, there is finite supply, of Bitcoin, but there are many 1,000s of other coins which can perform the same/similar functions. New coins are being created all the time.
* Blockchain technology has value....so should we not own the business which stand to benefit (eg. buy shares)?
* I understand it has some merit as a payment system...if one needs to transfer funds across counties, quickly (not relevant to 99% of the population)
* I can't see why anyone would want, or need, to use BTC as a payment method in your day to day lives. Fiat works perfectly well for that purpose.

Please prove me wrong.
 
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I still don't understand why it has value, let alone why it should appreciate in value over time.
If you listen to the Bitcoin maximalists and cut through all the hyperbole and superlatives, there's very little discussion about value. In fact they are dismissive of any reference to intrinsic value, which they must do because there is none. The focus is on utility (especially useful for scammers and crims), scarcity (there will never be more than 2.1 quadrillion satoshis 😆) , imagined freedom from the traditional banking system (decentralized finance) and security (in your cold wallet only).

* Does not generate income - Well some of the unregulated crypto shadow banks have tried yield farming/staking like Celsius and others but this has not turned out well for crypto investors now has it.

* Is not tangible, or tied to anything else which is tangible - well indirectly it's tied (convertible) to fiat via stable coins like Tether.

* Blockchain technology has value - There is no patent on blockchain (distributed ledger) tech per se, so no ownership royalties apply.

* I can't see why anyone would want, or need, to use BTC as a payment method in your day to day lives. Fiat works perfectly well for that purpose. - We practically operate cashless these days anyway, BTC is largely irrelevant to the vast majority of financial transactions and CBDC will make BTC even less relevant in the future. But then the mantra now is HODL amongst the maximalists. Hoard your BTC and it must get more valuable over time is the pitch in crypto fantasy land.
 
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There has always been a lot of speculation that if not the future global currency, Bitcoin would at least become a digital equivalent to gold in terms of a store of value. However, as has been mentioned a number of times on this thread this year, BTC essentially trades like a high-beta version of the NASDAQ (up until FTX scandal).

It of course remains to be seen how Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies as whole, develop over the next few years. There is definitely a lot of scope for value within the space, but at the moment, it seems to be just another risk asset class in the market.
 
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There is definitely a lot of scope for value within the space, but at the moment, it seems to be just another risk asset class in the market.
How could anyone accurately model valuation in the crypto space? Crypto is a very high risk, speculative asset class and does not trade on measurable fundamentals of any kind. At least NASDAQ tech stocks have business metrics that allow one to estimate value in contrast to crypto which trades on pure price speculation.
 
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That’s a really great point, and it feeds into the idea of why Bitcoin often trades like a highly leveraged (highly risky) version of NDX.

Given that many tech companies are categorised as growth stocks, they can be seen as more speculative plays in the equity market. This is magnified for cryptos due to that lack of accurate valuation, or pure speculation, as you said.
 

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