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Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

greggles

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I didn't see a thread specifically on Bitcoin price discussion, so I thought I'd start one.

What a run it has been. Bitcoin is closing in on US$10,000 and its incredible rise in value must rank as one of the greatest booms of modern times, delivering one of the largest returns in a relatively short space of time.

Here's the story over the past four and a half years. How much long can it keep going like this?

screenshot-coinmarketcap.com-2017-11-28-12-59-42.png
 

Wysiwyg

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I opened an account at around BTCUSD$4500 with broker ACX when poster, Lifechoices, brought it to our attention. Feared the pullback -> crash and didn't buy. Should have been on it years ago, (laugh).
 

greggles

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I opened an account at around BTCUSD$4500 with broker ACX when poster, Lifechoices, brought it to our attention. Feared the pullback -> crash and didn't buy. Should have been on it years ago, (laugh).
I think it's still got quite a distance left to run. I've been noticing the mainstream media has been beating the Bitcoin drum quite a bit recently and the focus on the return it has generated has gotten the punters a little excited.

You know when news.com.au is covering it that it has become something of interest to the Instagram/Facebook set: http://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...e/news-story/f9e382656dacb1bcb2b08cde0e3dcb14
 

greggles

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Bitcoin cracks $10,000 and $11,000 in one day. :eek:

screenshot-www.coindesk.com-2017-11-30-00-01-37.png

I keep watching, waiting for it to retrace, but it just keeps on surging. Incredible.
 

CanOz

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CME will have the futures listed in December....I suppose it will take a few weeks for the brokers to take up the instrument if the liquidity is adequate. Then let the bots start...maybe we'll get a year out of it before they completely rule it...
 

galumay

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How much long can it keep going like this?
Until it stops! But the fall will be even sharper than the rise, the fact that there is no intrinsic value at all means once there are no 'greater fools', it becomes a bottomless well.

It will be a spectacular ride to observe, from the sidelines!
 

greggles

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Until it stops! But the fall will be even sharper than the rise, the fact that there is no intrinsic value at all means once there are no 'greater fools', it becomes a bottomless well.

It will be a spectacular ride to observe, from the sidelines!
How right you are. Bitcoin plunged from US$11,582 to lows of US$9,586 today, although it's currently hovering around US$10,422. Talk about a roller-coaster ride. Certainly not an investment for the faint-hearted that's for sure.
 

explod

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My old finance dealer handed me a copy the other day of a recent book "The Peoples Money. Bitcoin" Adam Tepper 2017. Very sceptical myself even of paper money but it does set out an interesting case. Goes very well into the history of money from ancient exchange. I'll report back
 

greggles

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John McAfee will eat his dick if Bitcoin isn't US$1,000,000 by the end of 2020.

 
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It's the greatest short on earth.
Put your entire value on it if you can short it somehow!
Don't leverage because it could go to 100,000 but it will end up close to zero, cash in then.
 

galumay

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It's the greatest short on earth.
Put your entire value on it if you can short it somehow!
Don't leverage because it could go to 100,000 but it will end up close to zero, cash in then.
Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?
 

T0BY

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Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?
CFDs, I know Admiral Markets offer bitcoin/usd cash. I believe it's at 10:1 leverage.
 
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Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?
If it gets listed on cme i would like to short- it is getting launched soon.

But when does the mania end that is the hard part. An option would be better but would have to be expensive given the volatility. The other route is the bucket shop, but that has its own downsides. The must be alot inefficiencies for arbitrage and relative value given the market structure.

If does spectacularly, that could cause some counter party issues, the margin may not be enough.

my limited 2 cents
 
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Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?
I have been eyeing this one off for a little while.

Doesn't seem possible at the moment, could explain its massive run.

The only method I would use is long WTFOM puts but for obvious reasons this instrument won't be available anytime soon.
 
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A “flash crash” on the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange has left customers demanding answers and refunds, with many claiming to have lost thousands of dollars.

The price of cryptocurrencies NEO, OMG, and ETP crashed as much as 90% in minutes on the Bitfinex exchange on Wednesday before quickly bouncing back to former levels.

And then people complain about losing money!!
 
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Of course OTC always makes you feel like the incentives are skewed.

But gong on an exchange will give it credibility.

https://www.deribit.com/main#/options


To make a profit almost atm put at 11000 is about .1918 bit coin or 19.18 %

and that is for 117 days. That means you need a 19.8% fall just to break even.

If you take a long term option -You better hope it implodes that year

OTM is better but is still has to fall a fair amount.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-become-available-in-fall-after-cftc-approval

https://www.coindesk.com/cme-begin-trading-bitcoin-futures-december-18/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...top-here-s-how-you-can-short-the-digital-coin

IDK at least with a put option you can sleep at night.

Say you have 30% margin and it goes up 200% overnight what is there to stop that. Or the other way it goes down 90% with only 30% margin and you are long.

Then the dominoes go bang...
 

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