Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

[Dona Ferentes]

It's the best odds if you know all the probabilities of each hand. Still negative expectancy though (of course).

The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places

Boxing?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's the best odds if you know all the probabilities of each hand. Still negative expectancy though (of course).

The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places

Boxing?

If you don't wish to lose a limb, end up deceased or broke, for the uninitiated, roulette gives the best odds.

Even better than speccies on the ASX or BTC.


gg

 

[againsthegrain]

If you don't wish to lose a limb, end up deceased or broke, for the uninitiated, roulette gives the best odds.

Even better than speccies on the ASX or BTC.

View attachment 136714
gg

I am a fan of roulette, but realistically craps and casino war have the best ods, without the dreaded 0 or the everhated double 00 tables to give the bank more edge

 

[wayneL]

If you don't wish to lose a limb, end up deceased or broke, for the uninitiated, roulette gives the best odds.

Even better than speccies on the ASX or BTC.

View attachment 136714
gg

The thing with roulette is that you have a negative expectancy of 2.7% (single 0) and there is no way you can overcome that.

Whereas, blackjack is ~0.5%, IF you understand the probabilities and play to the odds of each hand. (Positive if you know how to count cards but they will kick you out).

My long-term expectancy with horse racing is about +1.5% on capital per meeting.

A lot of punters wouldn't think that as very spectacular but I have jigged my system so that it has an almost zero risk of ruin... And when you compound that, it's a nice little earner while you are drinking Guinness and having a good time.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The thing with roulette is that you have a negative expectancy of 2.7% (single 0) and there is no way you can overcome that.

Whereas, blackjack is ~0.5%, IF you understand the probabilities and play to the odds of each hand. (Positive if you know how to count cards but they will kick you out).

My long-term expectancy with horse racing is about +1.5% on capital per meeting.

A lot of punters wouldn't think that as very spectacular but I have jigged my system so that it has an almost zero risk of ruin... And when you compound that, it's a nice little earner while you are drinking Guinness and having a good time.

Thank you @wayneL .

Like many punters I do not really know the best odds.

And as you point out it is the odds of each hand in Sr.Blackjack, too much mathematics for this poor little ex-Guinness drinker.

I have always admired punters who can calculate the expectancy. Per meeting 1.5% compounding is not to be sniffed at.

I like roulette, the vibe the ooh and the aah, so I'll put up with the negative expectancy and forgoe buying drinks.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Let us back to BTC. I too briefly was a Commsec Forum maven, though many years ago.

gg

 

[againsthegrain]

The thing with roulette is that you have a negative expectancy of 2.7% (single 0) and there is no way you can overcome that.

Whereas, blackjack is ~0.5%, IF you understand the probabilities and play to the odds of each hand. (Positive if you know how to count cards but they will kick you out).

My long-term expectancy with horse racing is about +1.5% on capital per meeting.

A lot of punters wouldn't think that as very spectacular but I have jigged my system so that it has an almost zero risk of ruin... And when you compound that, it's a nice little earner while you are drinking Guinness and having a good time.

Most casinos use multiple and multiple decks now so card counting is a bit obselete but blackjack or casino war is as close to 50/50 gamble

 

[wayneL]

Most casinos use multiple and multiple decks now so card counting is a bit obselete but blackjack or casino war is as close to 50/50 gamble

It's harder but not impossible for those who are supremely numerate (not me, I get lost with him two or three hands LOL)

No casino game is 50/50 otherwise there is no house edge, obviously.

There must be a house edge in every game to pay for the staff, facility, and overheads.... It's why they don't like it if you figure out a way to beat their @ss.

Even in horse racing the corporates will ban you as soon as they figure out that you have worked out a positive expectancy.

Thank God for Betfair... Being a commission model, they make most of their money from winners.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Most casinos use multiple and multiple decks now so card counting is a bit obselete but blackjack or casino war is as close to 50/50 gamble

It has been a while since I've been to the Casino.

Casino War looks interesting.

It is a bit like BTC.

gg

 

[againsthegrain]

It's harder but not impossible for those who are supremely numerate (not me, I get lost with him two or three hands LOL)

No casino game is 50/50 otherwise there is no house edge, obviously.

There must be a house edge in every game to pay for the staff, facility, and overheads.... It's why they don't like it if you figure out a way to beat their @ss.

Even in horse racing the corporates will ban you as soon as they figure out that you have worked out a positive expectancy.

Thank God for Betfair... Being a commission model, they make most of their money from winners.

Yeah thats right, technically its 50/50 chance but its the payouts where house gets the edge, I think they pay out less on a draw or whatever. Only need a lower payout under 1 condition which will eventually happen and in the long run the bank gets the edge.

But its romantic to get a few beers, one of those cards of the roulette wheel and mark where the ball has already landed and try map the segments hit. A true gentlemen's game!

 

[noirua]

Bitcoin live price: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


Ethereum live price: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^ETHUSD&p=0&t=16

 

[noirua]

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which monitors market sentiment using several sources, remains in a state of “extreme fear” with a reading of 20. The index, which sides along a scale of 1 to 100, plunged as low as 13 last week.

Nevertheless, net inflows into Bitcoin and multi-coin funds suggest that institutional money is slowly returning to the market. While traders remain at odds over whether the market has actually bottomed, long-term investors posit that a sub-$40,000 Bitcoin is an attractive buy opportunity.

Is the bottom in? Institutional crypto funds record second week of inflows

Digital asset funds recorded heavy outflows at the start of 2022, but the tide appears to be slowly shifting.

cointelegraph.com

 

[greggles]

ASIC talking about "regulatory responses" to the cryptocurrency market and taking "the first steps towards regulating crypto-assets which underlie exchange-traded products."

22-011MR ASIC quarterly update October to December 2021 | ASIC

Fair, strong and efficient financial system for all Australians.

asic.gov.au

It's a bit vague but attempts at crypto regulation were inevitable. Governments must hate things they can't control. I imagine announcements such as this will spook the crypto market. Australia is a small fish, but "regulatory responses" from larger fish cannot be too far away.

 

[mullokintyre]

ASIC talking about "regulatory responses" to the cryptocurrency market and taking "the first steps towards regulating crypto-assets which underlie exchange-traded products."

It seems that the hand of control is starting crush cryptos.
The USA is joining the rush to crush.
From Coindesk

The Biden administration is readying an executive order for release as early as next month that will outline a comprehensive government strategy on cryptocurrencies and ask federal agencies to determine their risks and opportunities, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources.

• The directive would place the White House in a central role overseeing efforts to set policies and regulate digital assets, Bloomberg reported.
• Federal agencies have already been studying or providing regulatory guidance around the digital asset sector for years.
• The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission have issued guidance letters, informal statements and public rule-making efforts to direct how different aspects of the crypto industry should comply with federal law. But these efforts have not been coordinated in a single document or by one agency.
• Biden Administration senior officials have met multiple times to discuss the directive, which will be presented to the president in the next few weeks, according to Bloomberg.

These potential interferences by "the authorities" may explain BTC fall from grace.
From The Australian

One of the boldest claims advanced to justify the remarkable rise in the value of bitcoin towards the end of last year was that the digital currency was set to rival gold as a long-term store of value.
Indeed, Goldman Sachs even cited these supposed inflation-proof qualities as justification for its eye-catching prediction at the end of last year that bitcoin could hit $US100,000 ($140,000) over the next five years. The investment bank noted that the cryptocurrency already accounted for 20 per cent of what it called the “store of value” market, comprising gold and bitcoin, and suggested that this could rise above 50 per cent.

That prediction has not survived its first contact with economic reality. As the world’s big economies grapple with the highest inflation in decades, the price of bitcoin has tumbled. It stands at $US37,563, more than 40 per cent below its November peak. Meanwhile, the price of gold is broadly unchanged since the start of the year, suggesting that bitcoin’s share of the “store of value” market is down to about 10 per cent.

I guess those who invested early and got out at or near the top will be thinking what a great investment.
Those left holding the bag may think somewhat less of it.
Those still holding gold somewhat relieved.
Mick

 

[Country Lad]

Not exactly on topic but I don't know where else to put this. It seems Twiggy has had enough of his photos being used in crypto scams.

Billionaire Andrew Forrest launched criminal proceedings against Facebook

 

[Sean K]

Not surprising someone found a way to hack into an exchange for Bitcoin, or whatever they've done.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Sean K, Gold also gets stolen all the time. War, famine, plague and crime.

Watching BTC v Gold.

There is a support/resistance line at 23.87 oz Gold for one Bitcoin.

Gold is unfortunately temporarily dependent on BTC's price to an extent.

Gold is generally rising v BTC and it now costs 1/4- 1/2 an ounce less to buy 1 BTC than it did yesterday.




gg

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K, Gold also gets stolen all the time. War, famine, plague and crime.

Watching BTC v Gold.

There is a support/resistance line at 23.87 oz Gold for one Bitcoin.

Gold is unfortunately temporarily dependent on BTC's price to an extent.

Gold is generally rising v BTC and it now costs 1/4- 1/2 an ounce less to buy 1 BTC than it did yesterday.


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gg

I think the US gov confiscated gold in the 30s for a nominal fee…

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think the US gov confiscated gold in the 30s for a nominal fee…

Trajan a good Roman Emperor confiscated all the gold mines and gold of the the king of the Dacians, Decebalus, when the latter twice crossed him around about 100AD.

No fee.

Trajan's gold coins are still being found.

I wonder whether they will be finding Gold or BTC in 2000 years time?

gg

 

[noirua]

Russian government and central bank agree to treat Bitcoin as currency

Cryptocurrency transactions of more than 600,000 rubles (roughly $8,000) will have to be declared or be considered a criminal act.

cointelegraph.com

The report also highlights that cryptocurrency transactions of more than 600,000 rubles (roughly $8,000) would have to be declared; otherwise, it could be considered a criminal act. Those who illegally accept cryptocurrencies as payment will incur fines.