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Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

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Bitcoin payments decline as other cryptocurrencies grow

Since November, when crypto values had been depreciating, businesses have begun to use stablecoins more frequently for cross-border payments.
cointelegraph.com
The trend suggests that individuals are holding Bitcoin rather than spending it. Bitcoin's prices increased by 60% in 2021, regardless of the fourth quarter's volatility. According to Bitpay, the majority of last year's crypto transactions were in luxury items like jewelry, watches and automobiles.
 
"Mike McGlone is convinced Bitcoin is on track to reach $100K in 2022, as it completes its transition from a risk-on to risk-off asset. ...He said he considers the current bearish sentiment as a positive sign, indicating market consolidation."

Positive sign? Market consolidation? Risk-off asset? I am looking at the wrong chart? A case of positive spin being totally disconnected from market reality. What exactly would be the catalyst to reverse this savage downtrend?

 
Would this reverse the downtrend?

The sense is of Russia being a relative economic pygmy, unable to sustain the costs of a major invasion. Biden threatens to unleash economic sanctions of a kind Putin has never seen.

But sanctions since 2014 have fostered domestic independence, such that Russia is now estimated to have over $620 billion equivalent in total foreign currency reserves. Strength in oil & gas prices is projected to boost its sovereign wealth fund from near $200 billion cash over $300 billion by 2024.

Conservative fiscal policy also means that government debt as a percentage of GDP is only around 20% and foreign corporate debt has halved since 2014. Few international investors own Russian government bonds.

Russia is therefore in quite a strong position to withstand further sanctions. As Ukraine develops military strength, Moscow may recognise an argument it will cost less financially (and fewer lives) to act now instead of later.
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-comme...pJobID=1917502535&spReportId=MTkxNzUwMjUzNQS2
 
Notably, Russia has been the largest purchaser of gold for the last seven years, purchasing 274 tons in 2018 alone, China is a close second with no country of significance loading up on Bitcoin (which could be a catalyst to halt the decline). Many central banks are boosting gold reserves in anticipation of what?

Bitcoin needs a major whale to step in and change the price momentum. Too much price weakness will force highly leveraged players like MicroStrategy to either take large writedowns or begin to liquidate their positions. If that occurs the selloff will gain even more momentum.

Given that crypto is a high risk asset, it will continue to weaken if deleveraging continues apace in conjunction with interest rates rising. A negative sentiment change in equity markets is starting to play out and likely to fuel continued weakness in crypto prices.
 
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Reaches Lifetime High, It's Now More Difficult Than Ever Before to Find a Block Reward
21 January 2022
Https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-reaches-lifetime-high-its-now-more-difficult-than-ever-before-to-find-a-b-reward/

Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Taps an ATH at 26.64 Trillion, Hashrate Shudders After Price Dip and Difficulty Increase​
Following the drop in value during Thursday evening’s trading sessions, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty rose to a lifetime high, reaching 26.64 trillion after jumping 9.32% at block height 719,712. The mining difficulty’s all-time high (ATH) is now higher than the ATH it reached on May 15, 2021, which means it is currently more difficult than ever before to find a bitcoin block reward.
 
Quite recently Bitcoin was down to $29,000 from $64,000 before rising again to $67,000 and falling today to $35,000 as I post. Looking at the $29,000 figure it does point to an equivalent low point now of about $31,000. Will it rise again to $70,000 as El Salvador starts buying?
 
El Salvador really opened the purse strings with that purchase.


Let’s see them have a real crack at these rock bottom prices - get stuck in for 100 x what was just spent.
 
This article from Coindesk may assist beginners understand terms, state of play and strategies used in Bitcoin mentioned by @noirua in his excellent posts.

It did assist me.

What Does Hashrate Mean and Why Does It Matter?

Miners must compete using their machines to solve a difficult mathematical problem.
www.coindesk.com

gg
 
BTC has shown some resilience over the last 24 hours but is now showing a descending R angle triangle with the red volumes on the downside.



gg
 
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