- Joined
- 30 January 2013
- Posts
- 245
- Reactions
- 518
@Sean K you would almost think if GGP want to takeover AZY they should buy them all and it would be 50 million less shares they would have to pay out.?
AZY - Antipa Minerals
- Thread starter System
- Start date
-
- Tags
- antipa minerals azy
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
Can't tell whether GGP has participated in this raising.
60c or 12% discount to the last price which is about what I thought but it would have obviously been better if they could have raised much higher.
Claiming that this will get them to a FID by March 27 is a bit of a joke. They'll raise again in six months I reckon. 12 months max.
I wonder why people participating in this raise are "high-quality" and "sophisticated". I have a very expensive watch collection, shouldn't I have got a call?
- Joined
- 30 January 2013
- Posts
- 245
- Reactions
- 518
yes how could they forget about @Sean K and his watch collection 
I thought they could have raised at 65c or even 70c myself.
Will be interesting to see how much insider buying there was.
I thought they could have raised at 65c or even 70c myself.
Will be interesting to see how much insider buying there was.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
AZY has been in retreat of late, going through some consolidation and in response to raising money before they needed to. But, at least they won't be going back to the market for at least 2 months to upgrade the coffee machines again.
Next batch of drilling out, with still 50% in the lab to be announced. Looks OK and is going to expand and improve the resource by the end of the year. Certainly looks like it will be well over 3Moz Au.
If you look closely at the cartoons you can see that the Scoping Study pits do not include a lot of the extension drilling so the project is going to be much larger. Potentially one giant pit perhaps 4km x 2km pending infill and pit design.
Having said that, there's a ton of holes that have brought up dirt. At least they're learning where not to drill again and vector in on the higher grades.
With the Telfer ROM stockpile reducing and pretty low grade, this is a no-brainer add on to GGPs claims over Paterson.
Next MRE upgrade planned for Sep.
PFS not due until Jun 26, so we all might be dead by the time this gets into production. If this was in West Africa it would be in production by now.
Next batch of drilling out, with still 50% in the lab to be announced. Looks OK and is going to expand and improve the resource by the end of the year. Certainly looks like it will be well over 3Moz Au.
If you look closely at the cartoons you can see that the Scoping Study pits do not include a lot of the extension drilling so the project is going to be much larger. Potentially one giant pit perhaps 4km x 2km pending infill and pit design.
Having said that, there's a ton of holes that have brought up dirt. At least they're learning where not to drill again and vector in on the higher grades.
With the Telfer ROM stockpile reducing and pretty low grade, this is a no-brainer add on to GGPs claims over Paterson.
Next MRE upgrade planned for Sep.
PFS not due until Jun 26, so we all might be dead by the time this gets into production. If this was in West Africa it would be in production by now.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 15,070
- Reactions
- 13,534
This GGP AZY kerfuffle is very confusing to this simple soul who just wants to make money.
gg
gg
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
I just hope that it's at a premium or a third party jumps in for a bidding race. That's unlikely I think so just hope my average buy is low when an offer comes in.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
This guys has some experience in some no-name companies and did some work for Creasy but can't see how that warrants getting 600K free options excised at about the same price this was a few weeks ago. Not much incentive there. Money for jam really. Must be mates with the current mob.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
A few good hits here which make a good headline. The bulk of the drill holes reported in the fine print are between 0.5-1% so OK overall.
Looks like the GEO1 deposit area including Fiama and Rizo could be folded up into one pit if they keep getting hits like this and fill in the gaps a bit. Will certainly make GEO1 much bigger than the current 188K oz.
Looks like the GEO1 deposit area including Fiama and Rizo could be folded up into one pit if they keep getting hits like this and fill in the gaps a bit. Will certainly make GEO1 much bigger than the current 188K oz.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
Should expect another assay release shortly. Q3 is all we have so in the next two weeks. Hopefully some wider and higher grade hits. I have a feeling a lot is already factored into this. They've still got crap loads outstanding results from the Phase 1 drilling and Phase 2 has started.
Fundamentally, this is still way undervalued just on the Scopy Study using $3K POG ($830m NPV) and a teaser of what it would be at $4K ($1.7b). If they plug $5K into the model it might spit out $2.5b NPV or so. Current EV under $400m so there's a major glitch in the matrix here.
Chart's looking healthy after the CR sell-off. Formed a floor, new buys are on board, above MAs with the 20d crossing up through the 50d. Short term momentum is back up.
Fundamentally, this is still way undervalued just on the Scopy Study using $3K POG ($830m NPV) and a teaser of what it would be at $4K ($1.7b). If they plug $5K into the model it might spit out $2.5b NPV or so. Current EV under $400m so there's a major glitch in the matrix here.
Chart's looking healthy after the CR sell-off. Formed a floor, new buys are on board, above MAs with the 20d crossing up through the 50d. Short term momentum is back up.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
AZY has been a bit of laggard recently considering POG takeoff and a lot of its peers running away. I suppose they had a very good run up until they wrecked the SP with the unnecessary CR in July.
Just going through their Annual Report released today and found their financial study price sensitivities model which is comforting. Their base case SS was done on AUD$3K but if you plug in AUD$5K the NPV goes through the roof. $2.5b (which I had guessed above). And, then consider spot AUD POG is actually $5.7K you could probably add another $500m onto that NPV as a pluck. So, maybe $3b. With current EV of around $400m this is still cheap as chips. A takeover at just half the spot price NPV would be triple the current SP. Unless POG caves in of course.
Just going through their Annual Report released today and found their financial study price sensitivities model which is comforting. Their base case SS was done on AUD$3K but if you plug in AUD$5K the NPV goes through the roof. $2.5b (which I had guessed above). And, then consider spot AUD POG is actually $5.7K you could probably add another $500m onto that NPV as a pluck. So, maybe $3b. With current EV of around $400m this is still cheap as chips. A takeover at just half the spot price NPV would be triple the current SP. Unless POG caves in of course.
- Joined
- 30 January 2013
- Posts
- 245
- Reactions
- 518
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 23,413
- Reactions
- 13,915
Drills turning and lots of assays pending.
This map is also from the Annual Report and outlines the holes yet to be released in yellow. Diamond holes are diamonds (derr) and RC / AC circles. Some of the outlines of the shapes are blue or red that don't make sense.
Whatever the case, lots of results that must be coming shortly.
I don't think Minyari is going to grow much but fingers crossed the area SE of GEO fills in a bit and that grows substantially. Some of the recent hits around there were outstanding, like 33m @ 15g/t. If we're lucky, GEO, Minella and Fiama to it's east (not noted below) will all join up for one larger pit in the PFS.
