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What I learnt about the future of war in Ukraine this week​

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, perhaps the best-known military intelligence leader in the world, has three lessons from this war.

Mick Ryan
Military strategist and retired Australian Army major general.
14 Mar 2025


We are ushered into a room in the Kyiv area. A long table dominates the room. On one side of the table is a single nameplate with my name on it. On the other side, the entire length of the table has an extended line of nameplates. In the very centre is the name of the man I have come to see. Budanov.

Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov is the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence. He has been in this position for almost five years and has a reputation for creative, outside-the-box thinking and daring strike operations in occupied territories and deep inside Russia. He is also well known for his courage and has been wounded several times on operations.

The door opens and Budanov appears, accompanied by his deputy, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi. We shake hands and then take our places on our respective sides of the conference table. To break the ice, I offer to Budanov that, given the number of Ukrainian intelligence officers on the other side of the table, perhaps I am the one being interrogated. He smiles, and I then congratulate him on the previous evening’s drone attack on Moscow, the largest single mass drone attack in history.

I have come here as part of my research into the changing character of modern war, and to learn how Ukraine has sustained and adapted its war effort over time. Battlefield operations are impossible without strategic endeavours such as logistics, procurement, research and development, and crucially, intelligence and long-range strike. I hope my discussions with Budanov will yield insights for Australian military and national security professionals about the nature of contemporary intelligence and long-range strike operations.

Our discussion begins with the topic of recent trends in Russian intelligence and strike activities. My focus on recent trends is deliberate. This is a war that has evolved in character over three years. Indeed, because of changes in technology – and not just drones – political objectives and foreign support, the conflict in Ukraine is a different war every six months. What mattered a year ago is often irrelevant now.

Budanov confirms that Russia has learned to learn much more quickly than it was able to at the beginning of the war. In the past three years, Russia’s intelligence apparatus has improved and has evolved its planning and conduct of long-range strikes to adopt similar methods to NATO. The Russians have also improved their ability to learn from Ukrainian strike operations inside Russia. They have a sophisticated approach that constantly changes the disposition of their air defence network to confuse Budanov’s planners. The Russians have also become adept at using decoys, smoke and fogging machines to confuse those interpreting satellite imagery in the lead-up to, and after, Ukrainian strikes. This holds lessons for potential Australian future operations in the western Pacific.

According to Skibitskyi, the Ukrainians have also seen a fast learning curve from the North Koreans over the past several months. Their tactics have evolved, and they have learned to employ drones and to counter them better. At the same time, North Korean weapons such as the KN23 ballistic missiles have had their accuracy improved by Russian engineers. Once again, this is relevant to our region.

But the Ukrainians are also learning and adapting. Budanov describes this as a constant competition. For every Russian reaction to Ukraine’s actions, the Ukrainians are watching and developing counter-reactions. This adaptation battle moves at an increasing speed. As Budanov noted during our conversation, the pace of learning and evolution in intelligence and strike operations is probably only possible in wartime.

Our conversation turns to the impact of new technologies on the age-old practice of intelligence. Commonly known as open-source intelligence, or OSINT, commercial satellite imagery, social media reporting and scraping, as well as civil analytical companies, have had a major impact on intelligence and building situational awareness in this war.

Budanov agrees that these new-age civil technologies are crucial to modern war and 21st-century intelligence operations. But he doesn’t see them as replacing old techniques. They are, in his words, “complementary”. Open-source information can be useful in corroborating intelligence gleaned by other means, and it can be helpful in assessing the impact of Ukrainian operations inside Russia. But there is a caveat. As Budanov observes, social media is only useful if there is someone nearby with a camera who then posts images online. In many circumstances, this is not the case. And open-source information can easily be manipulated to deceive people, he adds.

We discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on his activities. Budanov agrees that has an important – and increasing – role. It is most useful when there is a requirement to analyse large amounts of data or interpreting big quantities of satellite imagery. But Budanov says it isn’t foolproof. Humans are still critical in the intelligence process, and AI has some way to go to be fully reliable.

Budanov’s three lessons​

As the clock ticks down on our time together, I ask Budanov, “Hero of Ukraine”, subject of a thousand memes and perhaps the best-known military intelligence leader in the world, his key lessons from this war. He has just three.

First, if you believe war is possible, you must do everything “possible and impossible” to prevent it.
Second, if you believe that war is certain or inevitable, there is a responsibility to strike first and deny the enemy the ability to seize the initiative.
Finally, if you must strike first, strike hard as possible to make an adversary think twice.

I ponder his final advice, which is relevant for national leaders everywhere, including Australia. Budanov’s sage words strikes me as the pragmatic and hard-earned advice of someone who has seen war up close for over a decade.

He has seen what happens when deterrence fails and when nations don’t take seriously the potential for war. There is much Budanov has to teach us about modern war, intelligence and deep strike operations. I just hope we are smart enough in Australia to reflect on these words as we face unprecedented threats to our security.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
it's the pace of change, adaption, improvisation, improvement that is startling.

There are motherships flying to distant places that then launch drones for 'the last mile'.
Click to expand...
Yes the speed of the technology revolution is amazing, one of our saving graces, is the distance and remoteness.
China have the technology and the planes, but they still need to get feet on the ground, if they do come.
 
Knobby22 said:
Yes, very worried about the billions we are paying for the Submarines.
Fear they would be destroyed quickly.
Click to expand...
Submarines are still pretty hard to detect, the newest conventionl ones using Stirling engines are very quiet.

As it seems increasing unlikely that we will ever get the US subs it might be a better deal to have a larger number of conventional subs to protect our shoreline and leave the long range stuff in the China sea to the Yanks.

Then see what the Brits have to offer in terms of nukes.
 

The point of the US selling us Nuclear subs to us is to allow for longer range deployments supporting their aims if we do or not is another question know a few sub mariners who say smaller subs for defense inshore areas make sense but then long range can attack supply lines.

TBH if we have nuclear subs then they should be nuclear armed that's the realistic solution to defending Australian should Armageddon comes knocking.
 
I can't see our subs having nukes, but there is always U.S subs and carriers hanging around the Australian coast. The last few weeks, there has been a lot of very high altitude fighter jets, going overhead at my place.

US nuclear submarine docks off WA coast

www.9news.com.au

An American nuclear-powered submarine has docked off the Western Australian coast in the first of two planned visits this year.
The USS Minnesota, a Virginia-class submarine, arrived in Perth for a training program for Australian naval officers preparing to take command of a submarine.
Mooring at HMAS Stirling on Garden Island, the stealthy, state-of-the-art vessel is in Australia under the AUKUS deal, which is providing the US, UK, and Australian navies the chance to swap tactics, including weapons handling.
 

From the new UK defence initiatives. Those subs are the Aukus subs. Actually good news as maybe they will build them quicker.

The government has accepted all 62 recommendations set out in a long-awaited Strategic Defence Review (SDR), including building 12 new nuclear-powered submarines, six new munitions factories and embracing technologies like artificial intelligence.
As for the US demands, this cartoon made me laugh. A play on the Howard line.


Defence plan will ensure UK is ready for war, minister says

The Army needs to become "10 times more lethal" to face a "new era of threats", defence secretary says.
www.bbc.com
 
US instigates review of Aukus, to ensure it fits in with Trump's MAGA agenda.

I think we should do our own review and pull out of the US side of the agreement and either build our owns subs or buy them off the shelf from Germany or Japan

The US is going batty and we should disconnect.

Huge blow for Australia's submarine plans as US government reviews AUKUS deal

The $300 billion defence pact is in limbo as Donald Trump charts his own course.
7news.com.au
 
Better learn Mandarin then, fast.
 
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