August 2025 DDD

Just a word on inflation.

Common garden variety inflation, you know, in the 10% to 20% variety can be driven by a number of factors, which I'm not overly interested in at the moment.

Hyperinflation however has only one cause. That cause is the collapse of the currency. That is the risk that the US is currently running with the debt levels where they are.

To not default outright on the debt, the US must inflate and expand the money supply to the point where currency collapse becomes a real possibility.

After watching the MSTR and Saylor video, just how much confidence do you have in BTC? With a number of imitators, all using the fly-wheel of selling debt to buy BTC, yes BTC will rise in the short term as their buying propels it higher. Already BTC is losing its explosive volatility to the upside. It will however retain its explosive volatility to the downside.


The significant increase in churn of short term Bills as Treasury debt rolls over every 4wks should be sending a massive warning. Bessent et al are desperately looking for new buyers, Tether and the like, for this increased churn. This issue is massively under-reported. Ignored. How soon until the Fed HAS to buy all the issue?

Here is where your garden variety inflation can become an issue.

Inflation rises to 5%. Not an outrageous number.
The Fed lowers the FFR to 3%

You now have a negative real return on your Bills, assuming the short end of the market actually responds to that cut in the FFR.

1. Who buys the Bills at negative rates?
2. If rates do not fall following a cut in the FFR, which to date they have not, what does that signal?

jog on
duc

Stephen Miran, who has been nominated to serve as a Federal Reservegovernor until the end of the year, is a placeholder. He isn’t a candidate for the chairmanship. which falls vacant next May. But as placeholders go, he’s a very interesting one, and not just for his authorship of a now-notorious “User’s Guide” to restructuring global trade that has guided US tariff policy.

As chairman of President Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Miran has shown great loyalty as a spokesman for tariff policy. That is doubtless his chief appeal. He can be expected to vote for a rate cut as soon as he can join the Federal Open Market Committee, along with the two Trump appointees who dissented by voting for a cut last month. He won’t have time to make any substantive difference, but his Manhattan Institute paper published last year calling to reform the Fed’s governance, and attacking the status quo for encouraging “groupthink,” suggests that pressure for radical change will intensify.

The range of Miran’s proposals for the Fed is almost as breathtakingly ambitious as his plans for world trade, which involved charging foreigners a fee for investing in the US and a possible “Mar-a-Lago Accord” to coordinate a weakening of the dollar. Those plans have gone very quiet as the dollar has fallen on its own while bond investors have been restive. His ideas for the Fed center on “monetary federalism” with more power for the regional Fed presidents and less direct influence for the FOMC; and as they don’t involve dealing with other countries, they have a better chance of happening.

Trump’s choice not to name a potential next chairman to the role suggests that he now accepts that displacing incumbent Jerome Powell would be an unnecessary risk. Instead, there is a race straight out of reality television, with four candidates taking a lead since June on the Kalshi prediction market:


Everything will come to an Apprentice-like denouement when Trump makes his pick. After the shock of the Aug. 1 revisions to US unemployment data, showing far weaker employment than initially reported, this seems a recipe for uncertainty and upheaval. None of this is showing up in markets.

To explain why, look at the Bank of England. The UK economy is in far worse shape than the US. Both unemployment and inflation are higher:


It also boasts an almost comically divided Monetary Policy Committee at the BOE. Two dissents came as a shock at the Fed; such an outcome would have been an outbreak of harmony in Threadneedle Street. Last week’s MPC held two votes after the first resulted in a tie — four to hold, four to cut by 25 basis points, and one to cut by 50. Cutting by 25 basis points eventually won 5-4.

This has had no appreciable impact on rate expectations. According to overnight index swaps, the projected Bank Rate for the end of this year has been more stable than fed funds, even though the Fed maintained unanimity until July:


The UK experience reflects good economists grappling with an extremely difficult situation. The market view of their likely path has reflected traders’ attempts to wrestle with the same issues. Even though the Fed has been far more united and clear in its guidance, that has added up to a bumpier road — because of the imponderable effect of tariffs, the political uncertainties, and then the shocking payroll revision.

Dissent is not in itself damaging. Miran will be a dove, but his vote won’t swing the committee, and the balance of evidence is in any case shifting toward the doves. The jobs revision brought inflation forecasts, a potential barrier to rate cuts, back into line:


July’s consumer price inflation, due Tuesday, is the next potential impediment. Almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a rise to or slightly beyond the Fed’s 3% upper-bound target. Nobody expects much worse than that. These forecasts overlap with total confidence in a September Fed cut, with or without Miran:


That helps explain the greatest reason why markets are treating the upheavals with equanimity: The numbers aren’t that bad, even after the jobs revision (equivalent to only about 0.15% of the US workforce). David Roberts, head of fixed income at Nedgroup Investments, offers some cold water:

OK, so there were some downward revisions to prior numbers. The current figures were a rounding error below consensus. Average earnings exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate was unchanged, and those employed worked LONGER than normal. Sure, the numbers ain't great — it's in my interests as a bond guy to talk the economy down. But dire? Not even close.

Click to expand...

Daniel Von Ahlen of TS Lombard says the US labor market is in “a low-hiring, low-firing equilibrium.” He adds that there has been no credit boom and no obvious macro malinvestment; private-sector balance sheets are in robust health and real incomes are growing too fast for a recession (even if they have moderated).

On the stock market, near record highs, cyclicals are beating defensive stocks to a record extent, despite sluggish signals from Institute of Supply Managers data. “One interpretation is that they are being complacent,” says John Higgins of Capital Economics. “Another is that the economic outlook is better than the ISM surveys suggest.”

Absent evidence to the contrary, the market will allow the turbulence at the Fed to continue without complaint. But everyone, not just Miran, should be aware that that could change if the economy unambiguously weakens.




The Fed’s well-advertised pivot to light-touch regulation was gathering momentum even before the Miran appointment. The new risk-based capital rule, which simplifies how banks calculate the capital buffer they must hold, could arrive as soon as the first quarter of 2026. That’s a significant setback to the Fed’s 1,087-page Basel III endgame proposal, launched after the 2023 banking crisis. Michelle Bowman, the new vice chair for supervision, is leading the charge, which is crucial to the aggressive Trump 2.0 deregulation agenda.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that “the growth of private credit tells me the regulated banking system has been too tightly constrained.” It might also imply that private credit hasn’t been constrained enough, but his approach implies that both profits and share prices could benefit from deregulation.

This goes beyond bank capital. Gavekal Research’s Tan Kai Xian points out that April’s relaxation of crypto guidelines for banks and the lift for stablecoins underscore Bessent’s influence. Liberalizing 401(k)s should also boost the financial sector, with the president signing an order last week to allow pension plans to invest in private assets, including crypto. The move raises potential returns and risks for savers, while substantially helping quoted financial groups’ quest for profits.

The forceful deregulation pivot is reminiscent of the landmark reforms by the Carter, Reagan and Clinton administrations — which spurred huge activity on Wall Street and arguably led to the Global Financial Crisis.

Financials already have momentum from robust second-quarter earnings growth, which jumped to over 15% from about 4% in the prior quarter. The sector’s projected 20.4% year-on-year EPS gain ranks second only to tech. As a result, bank shares have mended much of the damage caused by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023, although they have lagged the rest of the market in the last few weeks:


This leaves room for optimism on US bank stocks. Relative to the market, they have started a fitful rise from multi-decade lows — but remain far from mending the damage done by the GFC. This chart is from Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra:


Source: Societe Generale
Their balance sheets have been tested twice, in 2020 during the pandemic and again during the crisis two years ago, which underscores the significance of the recent strong earnings. Confidence in the numbers on their books now appears to be total. The standard metric for the sector, the multiple of price-to-book value (assets minus liabilities) is now higher for US banks than it was before the GFC. The same is not true of banks in the rest of the developed world:


Bank shares’ underperformance thus reflects weaker profitability, rather than concerns about their soundness or asset quality. Kabra therefore argues that deregulation should help them catch up with the higher-risk part of the sector, which it has lagged since 2023:

Financials remain our key overweight, and we expect the current backdrop to be conducive to further outperformance of the higher-beta part of the sector. The context should also favor small and mid caps given their higher domestic US exposure, and we would expect them to outperform, especially those with exposure to financials and industrials.

Click to expand...

Smaller banks would appear to be particularly interesting because they have failed to recover from the regional banking crisis:


Source: Societe Generale
Deregulation should free up excess capital, allowing swifter clearance of bank mergers and acquisitions such as the approval of Capital One’s acquisition of Discover Financial Services in April.

Past liberalizations of the financial sector are contentious, to put it mildly. Regulators elsewhere don’t have the same zeal for easing bank rules, but if the US program succeeds, they may hold off from planned tightenings, and ease other post-GFC banking rules as former IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld notes in this paper. Historically, US financial deregulation has fueled global competition:

Where the US leads, other jurisdictions may follow. Notably, the European Union, the UK, and Canada have all delayed their implementation of more stringent bank capital standards under the Basel III “endgame” framework while they wait to see in what form the US goes ahead with the new rules, or whether it will ditch the plan altogether.

Click to expand...

Counterintuitively, Europe’s banks might benefit most from US deregulation. Fiscal stimulus in Europe and China is poised to be stronger than in the US. Further, tariffs will be inflationary in the US and deflationary everywhere else — giving other central banks greater scope to cut rates. The weakening dollar has already helped them to a great rally this year:


Ultimately, bank deregulation, combined with fiscal expansion and monetary easing, should support global growth and help to offset tariffs, at least in the short term. It is up to regulators, and the self-control of financiers, to avoid a longer-term repeat of the speculative disaster of 2008.





jog on
duc

G'day Duc

Keep up the great content mate!....I look forward to Reading & trying to Digest all the information in my quest to find a few gold nuggets i can mine into the Future!

OK!....That's enough brown Nosing for Now ha ha

Question?....I'm looking for Some idea's, some ETFs for Short/Medium/Long term....Can you please give me what you consider to be the best for S/M/L terms?

Greatly Appreciated!
SS

P.s They do Not have to be Specific ETFs, can be simple sectors And or areas of interest!...Thanks!

ShareSuccess said:

G'day Duc

Keep up the great content mate!....I look forward to Reading & trying to Digest all the information in my quest to find a few gold nuggets i can mine into the Future!

OK!....That's enough brown Nosing for Now ha ha

Question?....I'm looking for Some idea's, some ETFs for Short/Medium/Long term....Can you please give me what you consider to be the best for S/M/L terms?

Greatly Appreciated!
SS

P.s They do Not have to be Specific ETFs, can be simple sectors And or areas of interest!...Thanks!

Click to expand...

Mr SS

Longer term:

In order of preference:



Gold
PHYS

Uranium
CCJ

Short term: days to 1 week

SPY, QQQ

Longer Term Shorts

MSTR
IBIT
NRG

Medium term nothing really.






Hedge funds are increasingly giving up on oil as the most profitable commodity play out there, with a Bloomberg analysis of some 700 funds’ strategies indicating that money managers have been betting against oil throughout 2025.

- Post-COVID recovery was the main engine of hedge funds’ oil craze, further boosted by the Russia-Ukraine war and ensuing sanctions, creating an almost four-year prevalence of long oil positions up until September 2024.

- Renewable energy stocks have outperformed oil since Trump came to office, with hedge funds now betting on AI driving a boom in electricity generation that would need to be satiated by clean energy, hence the industry’s net long on wind stocks even though Trump has called off US federal funding.

- With China actively promoting consolidation in its solar sector and Trump contributing to more than $22 billion cancelled renewable projects in the US, hedge funds believe the clean energy projects of the future will be more transparent and cost-efficient without public funds.

Market Movers

- US oilfield services giant SLB (NYSE:SLB) landed a huge six-well drilling contract in Iraq to increase production at the 4.6 TCf Akkas gas field in the country’s western Anbar governorate, aiming for 100 MMCf/d of output within one year.

- Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) was forced to delay drilling at the 350 MMboe Rosebank field, UK’s largest undeveloped discovery, after the British government requested additional assessments of Scope 3 emissions.

- Malaysia’s national energy company Petronas plans to expand the share of its international upstream portfolio to 60% over the next decade, up from the 40-45% currently, as domestic oil and gas reserves mature.

- Global energy trader Hartree Partners is reportedly in talks to buy French agricultural trader Touton, which has been trading cocoa for 150 years and controls around 10% of the world’s output.

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

The extension of the US-China trade truce has sparked some upbeat sentiment across the commodity spectrum; however, the impact on oil markets has been fairly muted, with ICE Brent clinging on to the $66 per barrel mark. The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska this Friday is set to be the main trendsetter for the upcoming weeks, with a failure to reach a deal most certainly triggering further US pressure on buyers of Russian oil.

OPEC Hikes 2026 Oil Demand Outlook. Running counter to industry consensus, OPEC lifted its demand growth forecast for next year by 100,000 b/d to 1.38 million b/d in its monthly report, keeping 2025 numbers unchanged, whilst cutting non-OPEC+ supply growth to 630,000 b/d.

Chinese Refiners Curb Their Saudi Purchases. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are set to decline in September after the Asian powerhouse’s refiners nominated only 43 million barrels for the month (1.43 million b/d), down 200,000 b/d compared to July-August outflows.

The Race for Citgo Is Heating Up. US miner Gold Reserve (CVE:GRZ) and global commodity giant Vitol will be squaring off for the much-coveted assets of Venezuela-owned refiner Citgo Petroleum, with the latter offering $8.45 billion ahead of the final sale hearing on August 18.

Iraq Paralyzed by Nationwide Blackout. Almost all of Iraq was debilitated by a nationwide power outage that occurred after a sudden shutdown at the Hamidiya power plant damaged the electricity transmission network, with the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan being the only exception.

Forest Fires Halt Turkish Straits Passage. Turkish authorities suspended shipping traffic through the Dardanelles Strait this week as rampant wildfires ravaged the south of the passage, hampering flows of Russian crude and refined products that are loaded in the country’s Black Sea ports.

Beijing Fights Back Against Canadian Canola. China’s Ministry of Commerce slappedpreliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports, setting the levy at a hefty 75.8% and making it effective as soon as August 14, despite sourcing almost all its imports from Canada.

Congo Rejigs Terms After Failed Oil Auction. The Democratic Republic of Congo is working to reform its fiscal terms for oil production following its latest licensing round, launched in 2022 after a 15-year hiatus, which failed to generate interest from oil majors, with only three blocks awarded out of 27.

ADNOC Nears Santos Takeover. ADNOC, the national oil company of UAE’s Abu Dhabi, has extended its six-week due diligence period to finalize its $18.7 billion takeover bid for Australia’s upstream giant Santos (ASX:STO) to August 22, seeking to comply with regulatory requirements.

Germany Eyes US-Style Solar Subsidy Cuts. Germany’s solar industry warned its government against ending subsidies for new rooftop solar panels, introduced back in 2000, after the Economy Minister stated that new rooftop systems no longer need public funding as Berlin boosts defence spending.

Norway Readies for First Frontier Auction Since 2021. Norway’s Energy Ministry is preparing to launch its next licensing round, offering frontier blocks for the first time in four years, after the Labour government’s 2021 four-year moratorium on frontier drilling expired.

The World’s Wind Champion Falls by the Wayside. Denmark’s Orsted (CPH:ORSTED), the world’s largest wind developer, saw its shares collapse this week after it asked shareholders for $9.4 billion to fund its Sunrise Wind project off the US East Coast, despite Trump’s suspension of licensing.

China’s Lithium Mining Woes Boost Prices. China’s top EV battery maker CATL (SHE:300750) said it had suspended production at its Yichun lithium mine amid a broader crackdown on overcapacity, sending lithium carbonate prices up 8% on Monday, to ¥73,000 per tonne ($10,150/mt).

Jellyfish Derail France’s Nuclear Plants. The restart of four reactors at France’s Gravelines nuclear plant has been delayed by the operator EDF by a week as 3.6 GW of capacity was forced offline by a swarm of jellyfish detected within the plant’s cooling systems, citing global warming as the cause.



No longer are America's most important economic institutions politically untouchable.

Why it matters: Econ wonks — those far more comfortable with large datasets than the inner dealings of Washington — won't just question the significance of indicators or policy decisions.

• Now they will wonder whether they can trust if data, or monetary policy conclusions, reflect reality or political motivations.

Driving the news: Trump said last night he would nominate Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• "Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE," Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Details: Antoni, a frequent BLS critic, got his Ph.D. in 2020 from Northern Illinois University and is chief economist at the Heritage Foundation's Hermann Center for the Federal Budget.

• Former White House adviser Steve Bannon had been pushingAntoni as a preferred MAGA candidate for the role.
• Antoni is the second former Heritage economist picked by Trump to lead BLS, after William Beach in 2017. (Beach has recently blasted Trump's firing of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer.)

What to watch: There is no evidence to suggest the BLS is fudging the data to make Trump appear more or less favorable.

• But the pick raised questions among economists on the right and the left about what qualified Antoni to lead the agency — beyond his support of Trump.

It is also unclear what types of sweeping changes Antoni might implement in the near term, a possibility that could leave Wall Street in the dark for a longer stretch than usual.

• Antoni told "Fox Business" on Monday that the BLS "should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data."

What they're saying: Antoni's "work at Heritage has frequently included elementary errors or nonsensical choices that all bias his findings in the same partisan direction," Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, wrote in an email to Axios.

Veuger, who also cited Antoni's lack of relevant research or management experience, pointed to a paper from last year co-authored by Antoni.

• It claimed the American economy was in recession since 2022 — which was rebutted thoroughly in a subsequent National Bureau of Economic Research paper.

The big picture: Trump's BLS pick comes days after the White House said Stephen Miran would be appointed to the Federal Reserve board to serve out a term that expires in January.

• Like Antoni, Miran — who is currently the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers — will soon be a top official at an institution he has previously criticized.
• If confirmed, Miran will likely join other Fed governors in calling for rate cuts, as Trump repeated this morning he wants.

The other side: In nominating both Miran and Antoni, Trump has suggested the picks will correct perceived faults at the respective agencies.

• Trump said the July jobs report was "RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME look bad," though he did not offer evidence to support that claim.

The intrigue: The BLS is dealing with plummeting survey response rates and funding cuts that have plagued data collection — key issues Antoni, if confirmed, will face.

• Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to slash interest rates in September with signs of labor market weakness. Some economists question whether that cut might be too late to stop further weakness.

jog on
duc

Thank You sir!

Funny Thing About Your Choices.....I just Finished watching an interview With Eric Sprott Done by Jimmy Conner in 2024 & a U.S Company UUUU energy fuels Just Bought a company i Owned in Australia called Base resources, so Uranium seems Like the Perfect Play along with Gold!

While major US stock market indices are back to new highs and the bull market continues on, there are some well-known large-cap stocks that have been just plain bad recently. We screened the large-cap S&P 500 for stocks that have market caps greater than $20 billion that are more than 20% below their 52-week highs as well as down 20%+ over the last year. Within the S&P, there are 31 stocks that fit this criteria, which we've called the large-cap "left behinds" in the table below.

You can probably think of a few of these recent "dogs" off the top of your head. Some of the once-popular stocks that have been left behind include Trade Desk (TTD), Chipotle (CMG), Target (TGT), Schlumberger (SLB), UnitedHealth (UNH), Lockheed Martin (LMT), UPS, and Adobe (ADBE). This is a pretty diversified group of large-cap stocks covering communication services (TTD), the consumer (CMG, TGT), energy (SLB), health care (UNH), defense (LMT), transports (UPS), and tech (ADBE), but had you built an equally-weighted basket of these names starting a year ago, you'd be down 32%!

• Let's get a little funnymental today.
• We can break it down by basic wants and needs.
• For our money, data is better than humans.

Today we're talking about the best fundamental analyst on Wall Street.

Usually you won't hear me talk too much about the funnymentals, but today that's exactly what we're focusing on.

First, let me set the stage.

According to the types of people who actually follow this stuff, consumer spending represents approximately 70% of the U.S. economy.

You've got the Consumer Discretionary stocks, where "Consumers" spend their "Discretionary" income - including retailers, automobiles, and home builders.

Then you've got the Consumer Staples stocks - consumers are going to buy these products regardless of how good or bad the economy might be - toilet paper, cigarettes, potato chips, toothpaste, booze.

When you compare one group of stocks to the other, you're going to get a good idea about the general health of the market.

How Things Work​

Mutual funds represent about $25 trillion of assets in the U.S. equities market.

That's more than double the value of all the exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, right now, just to put in perspective how large the mutual fund market still is.

In a lot of cases, mutual fund managers have to be fully invested, by mandate - that means they can't run to cash, or short stocks, or buy bitcoin or gold or any of those other things. They have to be almost fully invested in stocks at all times.

The way they get paid is to outperform the market. They don't get paid to make investors money. More specifically, they're incentivized to beat their benchmark, usually something like the S&P 500 Index.

The way they do this is by overweighting the Consumer Discretionary stocks during bull markets and healthy environments while underweighting more defensive Consumer Staples stocks.

During the bear markets, you'll see a flight to safety into the Staples, particularly relative to the more offensive Discretionaries.

Equally Weighed Indexes​

One way to view this ratio is to compare the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP).

Each of the indexes these funds track are market-cap weighted, so the largest companies represent the biggest allocations in the index.

The thing is, Amazon.com (AMZN) represents 24% of the Discretionary Index, with Tesla (TSLA) alone bringing 15% more.

To get a broader and more balanced look at their relative performance, we can look at the equally weighted versions of each of these sector indexes.

This chart is commonly referred to as the "Best Fundamental Analyst on Wall Street":



For my money, if this ratio is above those Global Financial Crisis highs from 2007 as well as the post-COVID peak in late 202, I find it difficult to be overly bearish.

This is a major secular breakout in this relative trend, and the path of least resistance is higher.

Come talk to me if this ratio is below all those former highs, and maybe we can have a different conversation.

But, based on all the information we have right now, this is not a trend we want to fight at all.

If that ratio is above all those former highs, we want to continue to put money to work into risk assets and to participate in this bull market.

People are bearish out there. And I think they're wrong.

This chart confirms that.

And I'll go with the chart over the humans any day of the week.

• $4 trillion is not a lot compared to $124 trillion.
• It's easier than ever to access upside.
• See you at Crypto $5 trillion.

The total value of all the Cryptocurrency in the world hit $4 trillion last night for the first time ever.

This cycle has been different, at least so far, in a few ways.

First of all, I'm not getting any calls or texts from high school and college buddies, yet, about which Cryptos they should be buying.

Historically, in prior cycles, they don't ask "if" they should buy Crypto, but specifically which ones.

That's usually near the tops.

You're also not seeing many people on Twitter posting crypto prices, as if we didn't all have the quotes on our computers and phones as well.

In past cycles, the self-proclaimed "Diamond Hands" (or "Laser Eyes," depending on the era) would blast out every new high as if they had some secret terminal the rest of us mere mortals couldn't access.

I can keep going about the sentiment. But another major point about this cycle that I think is going unnoticed is how much simpler it is to trade and participate in the upside than it was in the past.

I've been trading Crypto for more than 12 years now. I've seen a lot. I can assure you, with every cycle it was harder and more complicated to transact, with new tokens, new blockchains, new derivative assets, and new types of wallets.

I remember having to make six to eight different moves just to purchase one token.

That's no longer the case.

Tradfi (that's short for "traditional finance") investors now have ETFs, options on those ETFs and Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) as well as a slew of Crypto mining companies and new IPOs regularly being offered.

That wasn't the case just a couple of years ago.

And even on-chain you can trade almost anything now on apps such as Spot Trading, a company I'm also an investor in.

Four Trillion Dollars​

The value of all the Cryptocurrencies in the world hit $4 trillion last night for the first time ever.

Here's the long-term chart showing that appreciation over time:



That sounds like a lot of money doesn't it? $4 trillion?

It's not.

That's one stock in the S&P 500.

All these tokens can go to zero tomorrow, and it won't matter. There aren't any global macro implications for what is still a small asset class.

The total value of the stock market is about $124 trillion, more than 30 times the value of Crypto.

I don't mean to characterize that as "bearish."

In fact, as someone who's as long Crypto as I am, it looks bullish to me.

I mean, how much smaller can this asset get?

Journalists Still Hate It​

One thing we love around here is when everybody's wrong. We even named this newsletter after that concept.

If all the journalists are telling you Crypto is a "good buy," it's probably a "goodbye."

If they think prices are going up and they're saying nice things, history shows prices will likely do the opposite.

That's why I was thrilled to see them trying to scare the hell out of you this weekend in Barron's:



I personally liked the time bomb aspect. Time bombs are scary, especially on Saturday...

I think they're wrong - as they usually are on important trends.

And I don't mean to pick on Barron's. I've been a subscriber to Barron's for my entire career.

I have friends who work there.

I also have friends who are journalists.

It's all good.

But they're wrong.

And I tell them to their faces. And then we go grab beers.

It's like a ritual at this point. They get it. I get it. And we all get to play this game together.

Them with their ink, me with my money.

I like my way better.

I hope you do too!

I'll see you at Crypto $5 trillion.


I still hate it. LOL.

Interesting timing, and an admission the USD has fallen from 1/42 oz to 1/3300 oz of gold in the past 54 yrs, a CAGR of 8.4% (which, since everyone suddenly cares about economic data accuracy, is MUCH higher than the official reported US inflation rate of the past 54 years.)

With all the talk in mainstream media denigrating Trump’s tariffs, it is critical to understand that neoliberal free trade of the past 25-40 yrs have left the US begging China (literally) for military grade rare earths.

Any tariff discussion that does not address this fact is


Sen. Graham supports Pres. Trump's efforts to make USDs no longer good for Russian oil, Indian goods, Chinese goods, or European goods.

The USD not being good for anything from most of the Eurasian continent would definitely be a gamechanger alright.


Why can’t (or won’t) the US tariff gold (a useless pet rock in many US investors’ eyes) when the US is sanctioning or tariffing oil and lots of other more useful goods?

Good question for the mainstream financial media to ask the Administration.



jog on
duc

Big move into UNH & ELV today?.....is this a sign that the big Boy's in Town are Moving into defense mode?.....is the Market getting a little too froffy?

ducati916 said:

Driving the news: The White House is trying to walk back comments from E.J. Antoni, President Trump's pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that spooked the economic community.

• Antoni said the agency should hold off on releasing monthly jobs data, citing flawed models and methodologies.
• "Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data," Antoni told Fox News Digital in an interview earlier this month that was published yesterday.
• Bessent said this morning that he would not support the suspension. Still, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is considering tweaks to the data collection process.

Click to expand...

spooked ?
on might think the traders and investors would be rushing to buy champers and ready to celebrate real guidance on the economy

the downside would be those using AI would be more accurate as well so tougher competition

'tweaks ' ???

ducati916 said:

The other option: fewer revisions, but the data comes less frequently.

Click to expand...

fly up Javier Milei and let him bring up a half a dozen of his chainsaws

sure the day traders will have a tougher time without exploiting those obvious inaccuracies in the monthly data but the BLS would have some chance reclaiming some credibility

ducati916 said:

What they're saying: "At the end of the day, all roads lead back to the government data," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, tells Axios. "If we don't have that data, we're going to be lost."

Click to expand...

??? are they so lost that they don't understand how lost they are ??

ShareSuccess said:

Big move into UNH & ELV today?.....is this a sign that the big Boy's in Town are Moving into defense mode?.....is the Market getting a little too froffy?

Click to expand...

Yes

First post of a few catching up the last 3 days or so.

• Banks, biotechs and a big bet...
• What's in a name?
• I see dramatic upside from here.

Everybody hates small-cap stocks.

We've rarely seen this kind of extreme positioning in any direction ever in stock market history.

We talked about it on Tuesday: Russell 2000: The Sheep Are Short, We're the Wolves Lurking.

As a reminder, the Russell 2000 Index represents the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index.

Fun fact: The Russell 3000 Index represents more than 98% of all investable assets in the U.S. equities market.

The remaining 1,000 stocks in the index, the largest ones, make up the Russell 1000 Index.

As I wrote a couple of days ago, the ratio between the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), or the smallest 2,000 stocks, and the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB), or the largest 1,000 stocks, is down to historic lows.

And I think that's about to change.

What Are Small-Caps?​

Whenever we look at an index or think about rotation in and out of certain groups, we want to make sure we understand the drivers of those fund-flows.

What's in these things?

Well, in the Russell 2000, you've got a ton of regional bank stocks and you've got a ton of biotechnology stocks.

I wonder if this country actually needs 250 regional banks in the Russell 2000.

I'm thinking that's a little bit unnecessary. But, hey, what do I know?

As for the 200-plus biotech stocks in the Russell 2000, that may seem like a lot. But I don't personally have a problem with hundreds of companies trying to help people and save lives. I'm good with that.

In either case - regional banks and/or biotechs - I don't get a say in the matter.

The bottom line is this: If you want a better idea of the next direction for small-caps, you must start with regional banks and biotechs.

That right there is a quarter of the entire index. And here's what it looks like:



They haven't done anything in years. They're what we refer to in the business as a "hot mess."

And everyone agrees.

Regional banks and biotechs are coming off some of their highest short interest ever.

Speculators in the futures market, which consist of asset managers and hedge funds, have their largest net short position in the Russell 2000 ever.

They're all wrong.

We're Buying Small-Caps​

I decided to start buying biotech stocks at the end of July.

This week I added to my biotech positions.

You know what? I see even more opportunities out there that I want to participate in, and I'll probably buy more biotechs next week.

Right now, I don't have enough exposure to regional banks.

I encourage you to check them out, one by one - I did that yesterday, actually.

Find me a better looking regional bank chart than this one:

This is the artist formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks, now doing business as Bank OZK (OZK).

I think they changed the name because of the famous television show, "Ozark," which won a bunch of Primetime Emmy Awards, Golden Globes, and Actors Guild Awards.

The show is all about drug trafficking and murder and stuff. So, probably not the type of thing a small regional bank wants to be associated with.

Maybe it was something else; I don't really know.

I also have a hard time calling Google "Alphabet" or Square "XYZ."

It's hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

Besides, Bank of the Ozarks just sounds way cooler than Bank OZK, doesn't it?

Anyway, there are other banks out there whose stocks look attractive right here. It's not just OZK.

And everybody hates them.

Good.

We're buyers.








OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is still talking like the future belongs to him, a week after the rollout of ChatGPT raised a storm of criticism and questions about his strategy, Axios' Ina Fried writes.

• "If you project our growth forward pretty soon, like billions of people a day will be talking to ChatGPT," Altman said during an on-the-record dinner with Ina and a few other reporters at the Mediterranean restaurant Dalida in San Francisco last night.
• "ChatGPT will say more words a day than all humans say, at some point, if we stay on our growth rate."

Altman has heard the concerns, integrated some lessons learned, and is charging forward with plans to spend trillions of dollars to build a slew of products and services, led by an even more ubiquitous ChatGPT.

• "You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future," Altman said.
• "And you should expect a bunch of economists to wring their hands and be like, 'Oh, this is so crazy. It's so reckless and whatever.' ... And we'll just be like: 'You know what? Let us, like, do our thing."

On last week's launch of GPT-5, Altman invoked Dickens' "the best of times, it was the worst of times."

• "You have people that are like, 'You took away my friend. You're horrible. I need it back,'" he said, referring to users who wanted to keep using OpenAI's older models. At the same time, Altman said the company is finding scientists saying they can finally do real research using GPT-5.
• OpenAI has also seen traffic to its API double within 48 hours, to the point that it's limited by compute capacity. "We have really got the full spread of the human experience with this one," he said.

Fielding questions for 90 minutes, Altman also said:

1. If Google is forced to sell its Chrome browser as part of an antitrust settlement, Altman would like to buy it.
2. A brain-computer interface company along the lines of Musk's Neuralink is something Altman said he's interested in setting up: "I would like to be able to think something and have ChatGPT respond to it."
3. On his social media spat with Elon Musk: "There's no grand strategy ... It was probably a mistake."

Friday, August 15, 2025

Thin trading liquidity, rangebound price movements, and almost zero interest in any other topic than the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska have marked this week, with ICE Brent still trading around the $66 per barrel mark. LNG prices have already shed some $0.50/MMBtu this week as gas traders seem to expect some semblance of a deal coming through; however, oil market participants are waiting it out until the very end.

IEA Warns of ‘Bloated’ Crude Oil Markets. Directly contradicting OPEC, the International Energy Agency predicted that global oil supply would rise quickly than expected in 2025-2026, forecasting a 2.5 million b/d output hike this year, up 400,000 b/d compared to its previous outlook, citing OPEC+ unwinding.

Venture Global Wins Key Court Case of 2025. US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) has won an arbitration case against global energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) over its alleged failure to start delivering LNG cargoes under a long-term contract starting in 2023, sending the firm’s stock up by a hefty 8%.

India Eyes Russian Barrels Again. India’s state-owned refiners IOC, HPCL and BPCL have reportedly restarted their purchases of Russian oil after discounts for the Russian flagship Urals grade widened to almost -$3 per barrel to Dubai, shedding almost $2 per barrel since July differentials peaked.

US Court Reschedules Citgo Auction. A federal court in Delaware rescheduled the long-anticipated auction of Venezuela-held US refiner Citgo Petroleum, after a unit of activist investor Elliott Investment Management landed a last-minute $8.82 billion offer, surpassing Vitol’s recent $8.45 billion proposal.

Angola’s Oil Dreams Failed to Materialize. Almost two years have passed since Angola quit OPEC; however, the African country’s oil production continues to linger around 1.1 million b/d and is set to dip further, with top driller Azule Energy now expecting gas to be the main driver of production growth.

Pemex Gets Former CEO Arrested. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said that Carlos Trevino, the former chief executive of state oil company Pemex in 2017-2018, had been arrested in the US and would be deported to Mexico soon on charges of corruption, having allegedly received some $215,000 in bribes.

South Africa Makes U-Turn on Exploration Drilling. The Western Cape High Court in South Africa rescinded the environmental permit granted to French major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) to explore offshore blocks 5,6, and 7, possibly expediting the departure of Total from the African country.

Ukraine Keeps on Droning Russian Refineries. Ukraine struck the 300,000 b/d Volgograd refinery in Russia with drones, having previously targeted Rosneft’s 140,000 b/d Saratov refinery as well as a smaller plant in the southern city of Slavyansk ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

Canada’s M&A Craze Is Heating Up. Canada’s leading oil producer Cenovus Energy (TSO:CVE) is reportedly in talks with the country’s Indigenous groups to jointly take a $1.5 billion stake in peer oil sands producer MEG Energy (TSO:MEG), seeking to halt Strathcona’s $6 billion hostile takeover.

India to Open Up Uranium Mining. The Indian government is set to allow private companies to mine, import, and process uranium, ending a decades-long state monopoly over the nuclear industry as part of Prime Minister Modi’s plan to expand nuclear generation twelve-fold by 2047.

US Launches Anti-Dumping Probe on Solar. The US Commerce Department has initiated anti-dumping duty investigations on solar cell imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos, claiming that Chinese-headquartered firms are using those countries to resell their solar products into the US market.

Zinc Is Starting Its Own Transatlantic Trade. Global trading house Trafigura is reportedly taking large volumes of zinc previously held in LME-registered warehouses in Singapore and shipping them to the United States, with expectations of a potential squeeze helping to push prices above $2,850 per tonne.

Iraq Eyes Syria’s Recovering Markets. Syria’s gradual return to international politics has also prompted neighbouring Iraq to suggest that the two countries rebuild the 300,000 b/d Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, heavily damaged during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, as Baghdad aims to find new market outlets.

Chevron Restarts Imports from Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has loaded its first two cargoes in Venezuela after it received a new sanctions waiver from the Trump administration, with the Beaumont-bound Mediterranean Voyager potentially becoming the first tanker to reach USGC refiners.





Jog on
duc

jog on
duc

AI:https://www.advisorhub.com/jpmorgan-robeco-quietly-deploy-ai-in-daily-wall-street-routines/



Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...garbage-rally-who-s-to-blame?srnd=phx-opinion









Full:https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/08/13/us-oil-shale-industry-more-with-less



Boeing is exploring new technologies and production efficiencies for the Patriot missile seekers it builds, as global demand for the pricey interceptors skyrockets.
Why it matters: Changes in the formula could reduce costs or boost output. But finding the right mix — and not undercutting performance — is tricky.


Driving the news: In an interview at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium in Alabama, Boeing executive Jim Bryan told Axios ongoing research-and-development efforts include the introduction of "more solid-state components that are, maybe, lower maintenance," plus "smaller packaging."

• "The mix of technology in what we have today works very well," he said. "There is some apprehension to mess with a really good recipe."

State of play: Boeing, a subcontractor to Lockheed Martin, has produced more than 5,000 Patriot seekers since 2000.

• It hit an all-time high last year, completing more than 500 deliveries.
• "The market has been 'how much and how fast,'" Bryan said. "For the Army, we've asked them to give us a target. They say they need infinite now."

Zoom out: Engagements in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, namely the defense of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, have elevated the Patriot profile.

• Aviation Week on Aug. 6 reported Lockheed was eyeing a "dramatic rise" in interceptor production.
• "People want it because it works," Bryan told me. "That weapon is speaking for itself; that weapon is, essentially, selling itself."

Go deeper: U.S. moves Patriot defenses to Middle East with dozens of C-17 flights

Full:https://www.ft.com/content/ce617187-43ed-4bec-aebf-b1b346c4cfb1?sharetype=blocked

Retail traders are driving off-the-charts volatility when companies release earnings​

The increasing prominence of retail traders in dictating price action isn’t confined to just the world of meme stocks.

They’re also playing a key role in fueling how companies’ share prices behave at a time when every investor’s eyes are on them: upon the release of quarterly results.

“During this 2Q earnings season, retail investors frequently exhibited outsized trading behavior in stocks that experienced significant post-earnings price movements,” JPMorgan strategists led by Arun Jain wrote.

That is, substantial retail activity is associated with massive earnings reactions. The y-axis in the below chart tracks how many standard deviations JPM’s measure of retail buying is above or below its one-year average for a given stock.



Source: JPMorgan
But it’s not always the case that retail is contributing to (or creating) the obvious trend in response to earnings. Sometimes the crowd is coming in with both hands to catch a falling knife in stocks that nosedived after reporting quarterly results.

While retail’s favorite name to buy was still PalantirPLTR $177.35 (-2.15%)over the last week, per JPMorgan, Eli LillyLLY $702.00 (2.68%), The Trade DeskTTD $52.10 (2.66%), and CoreWeaveCRWV $101.45 (0.47%)jumped to near the top of the leaderboard as they seemingly “provided compelling ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunities following disappointing announcements.”





As this has been playing out, Bespoke Investment Group observed that the typical (over?)reaction to earnings reports has been trending higher, reaching levels unseen outside of the global financial crisis.




Source: Bespoke Investment Group

“In the current day and age of easy, commission-free trading on brokerage apps available right on your smartphone, share-price volatility in reaction to stock-specific earnings news has moved increasingly higher,” analysts at Bespoke wrote. “At the same time, overall market volatility hasn’t seen a similar increase, which means that more and more of a stock’s overall performance is coming from the one trading day per quarter when it posts its financial results and forward guidance.”

So, in sum, retail traders are stepping up their activity in names that move on earnings at the same time that stocks are moving more than they used to on earnings!






jog on
duc

hedge funds having losses on short-sold stocks especially small cap ( 'garbage ' ) stocks

they know the float is limited and the CameStop saga showed the adventurous retail traders how to exploit greedy fund-managers

so can only blame themselves especially if short-selling naked

bitcoin mining .. i looked hard at this in 2008 to 2011 and couldn't get the numbers to look good for the future ( and had about 8 tonnes of computer servers ready to start mining ) BUT the power costs then and in the future even with a 5kw solar array already up and running

to me it looking you needed your own nuclear reactor in the back yard ( only a small one say out of a sub ) to make it long-term viable

Europe building war machines factories are total clowns , first where are the raw commodities coming from ( they have nauseated most of their trading partners ) and then there is the energy and water needed to run those factories and assume most of the staff will be robots

and THEN who will they sell the arms to the EU is broke and Africa now basically hates their guts

now Buffet and Co. is more interesting while i focus on Asia Warren and friends seem to be tiling towards defensive stocks , taking small profits from the big winners

interesting to see the big sell-downs in telco-related stocks , do they think satellite providers are the big move in the future ?

So someone in the US government is paying attention to history.





The US, somewhat late, realise that China is eating their lunch.

The answer is to forbid foreign nations to invest their surplus trade balances into the US stock markets. Rather, they will have to redirect those surpluses into infrastructure, factories, electrical power generation, etc.

Hence industrial securities are a good place to invest for the longer game.

The problem of course has a number of negative consequences.



Foreign investment into US markets = $28 Trillion +/-. That little blip was back in April when we had that selloff. If foreign capital leaves the US markets then either:

(i) markets take a real tumble; or
(ii) the Fed steps in to buy with new cash, those 'critical' stocks; and
(iii) The USD will need to be MUCH lower.


Now all week and for a few weeks in addition, POTUS has been hounding the Fed. to lower the FFR. Powell has resisted. He may even have criminal charges filed against him.

The standard way of doing things re. money creation (check out earlier chart above) is that the Fed in conjunction with the Treasury create money, high powered or other.

No longer:



Full:https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...ces-first-loan-through-dod-agreement-with-mp/

The funding for OSC's $150 million loan to MP Materials comes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which President Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. The bill provides OSC with $500 million of credit subsidy funding, creating up to $100 billion in available loan funds specifically for critical minerals production and related industries and projects.


This is a real change.

In addition there were policy changes in:

Chip makers will remit a % of their revenues as tax.





Full:https://www.ft.com/content/cd1a0729-a8ab-41e1-a4d2-8907f4c01cac



The US government is thinking about:



Full:https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/14/tech/intel-trump-us-government-investment


Obviously once upon a time INTEL was the market leader in chips. This is a critical area for AI and the US needs to reclaim that leadership.


So other than industrial stocks, the other huge beneficiary from these inflationary policies will be gold. As previously stated, the US has been making noises about revaluing their gold. This is coming and coming much sooner than many expect. (See gold thread).





Higher VIX = lower stocks.

Anyone concerned in light of all of the above policy changes?

There still remains the 'passive bid'



Which is why employment is the CRITICAL measure for the stock market.

If you are thinking about employment, then you have to be thinking about AI. It is here and growing exponentially. I'd say pretty much no job is safe anymore.

And while on the topic of employment, falling employment increases US debt as unemployment benefits rise. Stock market falls, tax receipts fall significantly, debt rises.

Employment is the measure.

Which government agency got lambasted and their chief sacked?

Something to do with employment?


jog on
duc

• There is nothing more bullish than new all-time highs.
• The Dow just hit its first new all-time high of the year.
• It's still a bull market, and we're still buying stocks.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at a fresh 52-week high.

That's the first time that's happened in 2025, believe it or not.

Here's what the highest weekly close ever for the world's most important stock market index looks like:



A few things worth noting...

If the stock market is "extended," as I'm often told these days, then how come this is just the first new high of the year for the Dow?

Extended markets - those that have risen too far, too fast - historically make a lot of new highs on their way to "overextension," if you will.

Friday was just the first one.

And let's talk about those Fibonacci extension levels on the right side of the chart.

Feel free to ignore those if you'd like. But markets tend to respect these levels, and so we respect them as well.

Fifty thousand is the next target for the Dow - and I still believe that's where we're going.

The Nasdaq-100 already went.

The S&P 500 already went.

And now it's the Dow's turn.

"Don't fight Papa Dow" is how I learned it.

Not only am I not fighting it.

We're embracing it.

This Week in Everybody's Wrong​

On Monday, we learned that the total value of all the Cryptocurrency in the world hit $4 trillion for the first time ever.

Journalists are describing Bitcoin as a "time bomb," though.

Here's why I'll see you at Crypto $5 trillion.

On Tuesday, we talked about how and why early humans gathered and moved in herds.

That mentality is very much alive today.

We're all about breaking away from the pack - and we're looking for a small-cap ripper...

On Wednesday, we met the best fundamental analyst on Wall Street.

Usually we don't get too deep into the funnymentals.

Here's why we go with charts over humans any day of the week.

On Thursday, we revisited small-caps because everybody hates them.

We see a bunch of regional banks and biotechs...

And we're making some big bets.

On Friday, we discussed the fact that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 hit new highs the same day the latest AAII survey data was released.

Somehow, there are still more bears among individual investors than there are bulls - by a lot - and it's been this way for a couple of weeks.

Can you believe a stock market making new all-time highs scares people this much?

On Saturday, Senior Analyst Jason Perz took us on an extraordinary journey into the world of BMX riding.

I'm as competitive as the next guy, and this is crazy, but there is a lot of valuable stuff in here about mental toughness.

Here's Jason on what he learned about trading the day he almost died.

Have a great Sunday.

We'll see you Monday morning...

Stay sharp,






So the US Treasury data is woeful:





So much for DOGE = failure.
Tariffs = failure


We are back to:



Issue more debt to pay off the old debt and service ever higher interest rates.


China:



Full:https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/


The thing is, the consensus have it wrong on China.


China runs a completely different strategy than we do in the West.

China have encouraged their people to buy gold for at least 25yrs and probably even longer as gold never went out of fashion in China, India, etc.

As prices of goods and services fall and their value of gold rises, the Chinese are fine.

Debts are state backed. Net-net = 0.

The really clever part: China runs capital controls. Yuan cannot leave China. Apart from a limited exchange through gold. China can purchase commodities in Yuan and settle in gold. They are a closed self-funding loop. Impervious to USD pressure.

So gold to oil:





Gold as against any commodity you care to mention, gold buys more of it today than before.



China has been planning this for a long time.

They can EASILY outlast the US.

As we have seen, the US can last about 7 days when the UST markets spasm. Pathetic.

The Chinese are buying more gold.





jog on
duc

jog on
duc

According to media reports, Chinese refineries have purchased at least 15 cargoes for October and November delivery as India’s state-owned refineries limit their imports of Russian crude amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

- Russia’s medium sour Urals grade, accounting for more than half of its oil exports, tends to flow mostly to India because of shorter logistics from the Black Sea and Baltic Sea ports of the country.

- Chinese refiners have imported only two cargoes of Urals in June, only one in July; however, as India’s demand started to wane, they’ve scooped up at least 10 tankers for October, quadrupling their intake compared to the 2025 average of 40,000 b/d.

- Soaring Chinese imports of Russian oil are also a reaction to higher Middle Eastern prices, after Saudi Aramco hiked its September-loading formula prices to a $3.20 per barrel premium over Oman/Dubai.


Market Movers

- UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) has transferred its stakes in four contiguous blocks in the central part of the Gulf of Mexico to BP (NYSE:BP), indicating that the high-impact Penguin prospect might’ve turned out to be dry.

- Algeria’s state oil company Sonatrach has struck oil in Libya, confirming prospective resources in the onshore Block 065 it operates, just south of the Wafa field that produces 40,000 b/d of crude.

- US utility company Black Hills (NYSE:BKH) agreed to purchase its industry peer NorthWestern Energy for $3.6 billion in an all-stock deal, marking another important step in America’s power M&A landscape.

- Italy’s energy major ENI (BIT:ENI) agreed to sell a 49.99% stake in its carbon capture and storage projects to BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) subsidiary GIP, mostly covering upstream assets in the North Sea.


Tuesday, August 19, 2025

The Trump-Putin and subsequent Trump-Zelenskiy meetings provided ample talking points for the markets at large; however, the lack of sanctioning threats has been mostly a bearish factor for crude prices. The price drops of late have been relatively tiny, with ICE Brent still trading around $66 per barrel, yet the upside from here seems to be minimal, barring a sudden escalation.

US Keeps Pressure on India’s Russian Imports. Writing an op-ed in the Financial Times, Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian oil were funding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, just as a planned visit from US trade negotiators to New Delhi next week was called off.

China Floods the Market with Products. Chinese exports of refined products rose to a 13-month high of 5.34 million tonnes last month, marking a 7% increase year-on-year, driven primarily by diesel flows as Europe continued to buy long-haul volumes, whilst domestic demand in China wanes.

Iran Halts Power Exports to Iraq. Iran halted electricity exports to neighbouring Iraq, citing a surge in domestic consumption as the country’s power demand jumped to 77 GW, whilst Tehran had to ratchet up its own power imports from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to prevent blackouts.

China’s LNG Import Slide Continues. With China’s LNG imports trending 20% compared to 2024 readings, July arrivals to the world’s once-largest LNG importer totalledonly 35.51 million tonnes LNG, marking the ninth straight month of annual declines as JKM prices remain above $11/MMbtu.

Indonesia Eyes Modular Refinery Bonanza. Indonesia’s government plans to build at least 17 modular refineries across the country, with the country’s sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, keen to sign an $8 billion deal with US engineering firm KBR (NYSE:KBR) despite profitability concerns.

Norway’s LNG Troubles Continue. The Hammerfest LNG terminal in Norway’s Arctic was forced to shut its production of LNG this weekend due to an overheating electric transformer, less than two weeks after operator Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) restarted operations after a three-month maintenance.

Brazil’s Regulator Halts Output at Key FPSO. Brazil’s largest independent oil producer Prio (BVMFRIO3) admitted that the country’s local regulator had ordered a full production halt at its 100,000 b/d Peregrino FPSO, citing the need for improvements in risk management documentation.

Glencore Doubles Down on Argentinian Copper. Global mining giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) has submitted applications to Argentina’s authorities for RIGI tax incentives, vowing to develop the $4 billion Agua Rica and $9.5 billion El Pachon copper mines in the country, creating 2,500 new jobs.

Ukraine Strikes Halt Russian Pipeline. Ukraine’s military confirmed that its drones struck an oil pumping station in Russia’s Tambov region feeding the Druzhba pipeline that supplies some 210,000 b/d of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, halting pipeline transportation in the conduit completely.

ADNOC’s Purchase of Santos Delayed Again. Australia’s upstream giant Santos (ASX:STO) announced that the ADNOC-led consortium, comprising Abu Dhabi’s holding company ADQ and PE firm Carlyle, will not be able to finalize its $18.7 billion bid for the producer for at least a month.

Trump Promises to Slap Tariffs on Semiconductors. US President Donald Trump vowed to introduce tariffs on imports of steel and semiconductor chips over the coming weeks, adding that rates would be lower at the start to allow companies to relocate their manufacturing to the United States.

US Miner Calls Off Giant Coking Coal Deal. US mining firm Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) terminated its planned purchase of Anglo American’s Australian coking coal assets, failing to adjust the $3.8 billion purchase price after a fire at the Moranbah North mine, paving the way for arbitration.

Russia’s Dormant LNG Giant Awakens. Four LNG carriers linked to Novatek’s (MCX:NVTK) 19.8 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 project are headed towards Asia along the Northern Sea Route, putting an end to months of little activity as both the ships and the project remain under stringent US sanctions.

• We're concerned with behavior, not opinion.
• What's happening right now gives life to bull markets.
• Price speaks louder than headlines.

The American consumer isn't just a piece of the U.S. economy - they are the engine driving it.

Nearly 70% of gross domestic product (GDP) comes directly from household spending. The everyday choices people make - what they buy, where they travel, how they splurge - accounts for the majority of economic output.

Now, I'm no economist (thank goodness), and I don't spend my days buried in fundamental spreadsheets. But even I can agree that tracking consumer behavior is critical if you want to understand the bigger picture.

That's why it grabs my attention when the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD) rips to new all-time highs:



This isn't just Amazon.com (AMZN) flexing its size or Tesla (TSLA) dominating the scoreboard - every stock in the group gets the same vote.

From DoorDash (DASH) to Las Vegas Sands (LVS), they all carry equal weight in this index, regardless of market capitalization.

Where Are the Leaders?​

With the equal-weight version of the Consumer Discretionary index already hitting new all-time highs, where's the market-cap version?

What's holding back the bellwethers - AMZN, TSLA, Home Depot (HD), McDonald's (MCD)?

Here's the chart of the market-cap weighted Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) in blue, overlaid with the equal-weight version that's already hitting all-time highs:



For me, if these lines are going up, the market isn't falling apart.

It's quite the opposite, actually. These are the types of stocks that should be doing well in a healthy market environment.

These are Retailers, Homebuilders, Automakers, and Leisure stocks.

Sector Rotation​

The way I learned it is that sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.

During the first half of 2025, Consumer Discretionary was flat, with zero return. This was on an equal-weight basis.

From a market-cap weighted perspective, Consumer Discretionary was actually down during the first half of the year, losing 2.66% of value. It was the worst-performing sector in the market.

Take a look at price action for the current quarter:



Consumer Discretionary is the best-performing sector in the U.S. on both a market-cap-weighted AND an equal-weight basis.

That's a 7.5% return so far this quarter.

This is exactly what I mean by "sector rotation": Every group gets its moment in the spotlight.

They say the consumer is tapped out, stretched thin, and can't afford to spend.

But the market is telling a very different story.

And, if there's one thing I've learned, it's that price always speaks louder than the headlines.

Stay sharp,

• Semiconductor stocks are the most important group in the market.
• The Big Three are big, but there's a lot more to the story.
• These are the key levels to watch...

You can't have any technology without chips.

That's why Semiconductors are considered some of the most important stocks in the market.

Right now, this critical group is trying to do something it hasn't been able to do.

That is, break out to new all-time highs on an equally weighted basis.

Semis Are Top-Heavy​

Semiconductors are one of those groups where the winners win and the best players score almost all of the points.

For perspective, when you add up all the Semiconductor stocks in the world, they're valued at about $8.6 trillion.

Nvidia (NVDA), the world's largest chip maker, is half of that, with a current market capitalization of $4.3 trillion.

The second- and third-largest chip makers, Broadcom (AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), are worth $1.4 trillion and $1.2 trillion, respectively.

So the stock market's version of the "Big Three" (for you pro basketball fans out there) is Nvidia, Broadcom and Taiwan Semi, with a combined market cap of more than $7 trillion.

That's more than 80% of the entire value of all the chipmakers in the world.

When I look at the equally weighted Semiconductor index making new all-time highs, that's a total different look at the group altogether.



The SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) treats each of the Big Three stocks - NNDA, AVGO, and TSM - the same way it treats Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Credo Technology (CRDO).

In this index - the one that just closed at a new all-time high - all of these stocks get treated equally.

It's a Market-Cap Weighted World​

The best players are supposed to score a lot of your points. That's how I learned it.

There's nothing wrong with that.

In Semiconductor land, it's to an obnoxious degree, I think we can all admit.

Three companies alone represent more than eight-tenths of the global market.

The market-cap weighted VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has the Big Three at about 40% of its total assets under management.

It's still top-heavy, for sure, as it should be. That's just the world we live in.

Here's SMH hitting new all-time highs last week:



This sets the stage for either a new leg higher or a massive failed breakout.

Based on current behavior, we can draw a line near those former all-time highs last year and see if they can hold those levels.

To quote the great Walter Sobchak, "Over the Line!"

But if Semis manage to fail here, they can enter the proverbial "world of pain" Walter so passionately threatened.

In other words, if the SMH fails to hold these levels, that could pose a serious problem for Semis as a group.

So, all eyes on those levels. Otherwise...

"Mark it zero, Smokey!"

The Dude Abides​

An equally weighted Semiconductor index trying to break out again after failing a couple of times over the past year is a big one.

I mean, if both versions are making new highs, that indicates much broader strength for what is arguably the most important group of stocks in the market.

It's not just the Big Three.

If the S&P Semiconductor Index is working, that's a positive sign for the broader space.

Right now, the XSD has its highest short interest in more than four years.

You'll be shocked to hear I think they're all wrong.

I guess we'll see...

Stay sharp,


jog on
duc

• Rotation is a sign of market health.
• A key ratio just hit multi-decade lows.
• This is the level we're watching...

Rotation is the heartbeat of every bull market. Not just some of them - all of them.

Yesterday, we talked about Consumer Discretionary and how it went from laggard in the first half to leader in the third quarter.

But that's just one rotation in play - the story goes much deeper.

Broadening Market Strength​

I pay close attention to both what people say and what they actually do.

As technicians, our job isn't just to analyze the market - it's to study the human behavior driving those price moves.

Every tick on the screen is a reflection of fear, greed, positioning, and psychology.

And here's what I've noticed: The loudest voices calling for a market top, insisting this rally is "unsustainable," aren't the ones doing the work.

They're rooting for a decline, often for reasons that have nothing to do with the data.

Maybe it's politics - they don't like President Trump, and they want the narrative to match their bias.

Maybe it's envy - they missed the run, and they need the market to fall so they don't feel left out.

But the truth is, they're ignoring the rotation happening beneath the surface.

Strength is broadening out across sectors, and you can see it clearly in the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index:



SP500EW continues to look strong and poised for a breakout to new all-time highs.

It's built differently than the traditional S&P 500 most people follow. Here, every stock gets an equal vote in the outcome, no matter how big or small it is.

By contrast, the traditional S&P 500 gives outsized influence to the giants - Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN) - while the smaller names barely move the needle.

Market-Cap vs Equal-Weight​

Comparing these two indexes isn't about measuring market breadth.

This is a sector rotation story.

Consider the weightings.

Technology makes up about 35% of the market-cap weighted S&P 500. In the equal-weight version, Tech shrinks to just 16%, less than half the influence.

Industrials tell the opposite story. In the market-cap index, they're a modest 7%. In the equal-weight S&P 500, it's 14% - double the exposure.

The equal-weight index also tilts heavier toward Materials, Energy, Real Estate, and Utilities.

The real tug-of-war comes down to Tech stocks vs the others. When Tech is leading, the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 shines.

When leadership rotates, when other sectors step up, the equal-weight S&P 500 takes the crown.

Here's what the ratio between the equal-weight index and the market-cap-weighted version looks like over time:



When the blue line rises, the equal-weight S&P 500 is in charge. When it falls, the market-cap version takes the lead. And right now, this ratio has dropped to new multi-decade lows.

If it can reclaim the 1.2 level and get back above every former low since 2008, that would signal a meaningful rotation away from Tech leadership and into the rest of the market.

That's the level we're watching.

Stay sharp,








The Trump administration is pursuing wholesale change at the Federal Reserve with a ruthlessness and creativity that few Fed watchers could have imagined.

Why it matters: The president's demands for lower interest rates are not just rhetoric, and his attacks aren't limited to insults of chair Jerome Powell.

• Rather, the administration is pursuing a sophisticated, multifront war to try to install loyalists atop the Fed much faster than normal turnover would allow.

The big picture: This morning, the top housing finance regulator posted a criminal referral accusing Cook of mortgage fraud. She allegedly has mortgages on two separate homes, each of which she claims is her primary residence.

• We saw the first glimpses of the strategy last month, with claims that Powell lied to Congress and/or violated the law through changes and cost overruns on the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project.
• Politico reported yesterday that President Trump is seeking a lightning-fast Senate confirmation for top White House economist Stephen Miran as a Fed governor — in time for him to push for rate cuts at a policy meeting less than a month away.

Between the lines: Trump and his allies are trying to establish the predicate to fire Fed governors for cause so that they can put in place leadership who will deliver the looser monetary policy Trump demands — and act with less independence from the president's desires going forward.

• In the meantime, they are looking to make life as unpleasant as possible for Powell, Cook, and other Biden-appointed Fed leaders.

Driving the news: Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, posted on X a letter to the attorney general stating that it appears Cook "has falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statutes."

• She took out a mortgage on a Michigan house represented to be her principal residence, and shortly thereafter a loan on an Atlanta condominium that was also described as her principal residence, according to Pulte's letter.
• There is no accusation or evidence that Cook has defaulted on either loan. Pulte has used the same tactic to pursue prominent Trump antagonists, namely California Sen. Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James, both Democrats.
• President Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that "Cook must resign, now!!!" The Wall Street Journal reported that he is considering firing Cook for cause, citing two unnamed sources.

Zoom out: If the new allegations result in Cook resigning or being successfully fired for cause, Trump would move close to his appointees having operating control of the Fed's powerful Board of Governors.

• Miran, once confirmed, will join Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller as Trump appointees on the seven-person board. With another vacancy, Trump appointees would attain a 4-3 majority.
• That would give Trump appointees power over the Fed system's budgets, staffing, and selection of reserve bank presidents.

Zoom in: Cook's term is not scheduled to expire until 2038, so her successful early removal would advance that goal far ahead of what the calendar would allow.

Of note: The 12 presidents of reserve banks serve five-year terms that are all scheduled to expire at the end of February. The Board of Governors must vote to approve their reappointment.

• In other words, a majority of the Board of Governors could, if it wishes, oust some or all of the bank presidents just a few months from now.

As the world’s central bankers gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their annual dose of fresh air in the shadow of the Tetons, they can sense the plates beneath them are beginning to shift. This will definitely be Jerome Powell’s last symposium as chairman of the Federal Reserve, his Last Stand in the Wild West. The drama surrounding his replacement threatens to become all-consuming. Profound changes for the Fed, to be imposed by others, are on the agenda.

But it’s also an opportunity for a profound change in the direction that the Fed decided on for itself five years ago, in what now appears to be a spectacularly ill-timed intervention. It was at Jackson Hole in 2020 that Powell unveiled Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), which would aim to keep inflation to an average of 2%, rather than treat 2% as an upper limit. Points of Return ridiculed this at the time. The Fed’s fear then was of Japanification, and an approach that allowed the economy to run a little hot from time to time seemed better. It seemed like wishful thinking — the economy had been sluggish for decades, and such a move seemed like pressing on the accelerator of a feeble car whose engine wasn’t powerful enough to break the speed limit.

As it turned out, within months Japanification would seem the least of the Fed’s worries. Inflation has averaged far more than 2% over the last five years, Powell and his colleagues have taken the blame for a big mistake, and the central bank’s credibility needs to be regained.

There is apparently no chance that the 2% target will be abandoned, even though the political pressure to cut rates would imply that the Trump administration feels happy to live with prices rising at a somewhat faster clip. Powell’s swan song at Jackson Hole could end on a sour note — or perhaps as a defiant last stand in the same state (then a territory) where Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer met his end in 1876.


If he does hold firm against the pressure on him to cut rates, that could create as much excitement as a typical Western. Rates markets, as monitored by the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probabilities function, have moved to discount a far more drastic easing over the last six months, a period in which inflation has started to rise again:


This sets markets up for a hawkish surprise. The near-term speculation looks particularly overdone. The futures market suggests that the odds of a 25-basis-point cut next month are about 85%. But there are a lot of wagers on a “jumbo” cut of 50 basis points. My colleague Edward Bolingbroke points out that open interest in secured overnight financing rate optionsthat would deliver a big profit if the Fed made a jumbo cut of more than 25 basis points have exploded in the last two weeks.


Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued last week that the Fed should consider a jumbo cut, and also that rates should be at least 150 basis points lower. The market currently is behaving as though he’s likely to get what he wants.

The main reason for that comes from the politics of the Fed. Two governors, both of whom have been told they’re candidates for the chair, voted to cut last month. Several more members of the Federal Open Market Committee are also now under consideration — and know that they’ll need to do the same if they want the job. For now, the race to replace Powell remains wide open, probably because the administration has calculated that this maximizes its chances of getting cuts even while he remains in place. As far as Polymarket is concerned, the marginal favorite is current governor Chris Waller, but there’s still a one-in-three chance that no nomination is made this year:


The enthusiastic rate-cut bets rest primarily on the theory that the way President Donald Trump and his officials are running the Fed contest will persuade the committee to vote that way.

Inflation, which is rising and above target, offers no reason whatever to cut rates. The case for easing rests exclusively on employment, the other side of the Fed’s mandate. Handily, this year’s Jackson Hole symposium is entitled Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy. It will be wrestling with the critical topic of the moment.

Evidence from the labor market is contradictory and, of course, marred by unreliable data. Payroll growth is still positive but slowing. Other data paint a confusing picture. According to the New York Fed's quarterly labor market survey, the “reservation wage” — which workers will expect before being prepared to move — has just leapt to an all-time high. That suggests that there’s still plenty of potentially inflationary heat:


The New York Fed also tracks mobility by asking what has happened to those who were in work three months earlier. The number who have moved on, for whatever reason, has rebounded to a post-pandemic high:


When the jobs market churns this much, it’s harder to see the macroeconomic signals. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker, based on census data, shows wage rises falling but still at levels for the highly skilled that weren’t seen for more than a decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Inequality, which became acute during the Obama presidency as wages for low-skilled workers languished, appears to be returning. That’s not great for a White House dedicated to reversing inequality. It also implies that falling immigration hasn’t yet pushed up wages for the low-skilled:


This may be a matter of time. Reliable data on illegal migrant labor is hard to come by, but Banco de Mexico’s data show that remittances to the country are now declining, after rising for the better part of a decade (including Trump’s first term). That suggests the supply of migrant labor in the US is tighter, which might imply higher wage inflation for the low-skilled:


Turning to the consumer, big retailers are now releasing quarterly results. Home Depot offers scant evidence of declining consumer appetite. Revenues are at a record — not something you’d expect at a time when a jumbo cut is needed:


Home Depot’s sales tend to rally when more people are moving house. The housing market is perhaps the most widely cited reason for the Fed to cut aggressively; houses are very hard to afford, and new building is languishing. Cheaper mortgages might spark this back into life. The latest data show rising housing starts, but new permits, a leading indicator of building activity, dropped to a post-pandemic low:


It’s a difficult situation. There is a case for a rate cut next month. It’s hard on the current evidence to see that market expectations would be anywhere near where they are without the political pressure. Powell’s Last Stand(which Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence Partners points out will take place not so far from the site of the Battle of Little Bighorn) might yet deliver quite a shock.





jog on
duc

“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it,” Ferris Bueller

The bull market continues, but there are some potential small cracks forming. We will get to all of that, but what has amazed me is three weeks ago we were told there would be no rate cuts, then two weeks ago the mantra was a 0.50% cut was needed. Now the masses seem to have agreed on a 0.25% at the next Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) meeting in about four weeks. Things are changing quickly out there just like Ferris Bueller told us. One thing is that most investors expect a cut in September, but will they really cut with the stock market up near all-time highs?

The market-based pricing suggests there is currently a little less than an 85% chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) meeting in four weeks. If you remember last year around this time, we noted that a rate cut with the S&P 500 near all-time highs is rather rare, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. In fact, the Fed cut rates thrice last year with the index near all-time highs (in September, November, and December). The good news is rate cuts near all-time highs have seen stocks higher a year later 20 out of 20 times and when last year’s cuts reach the one year mark, we could have 23 out of 23. In other words, if the Fed cut rates in September and the S&P 500 is still be near new highs, it could be another positive driver for stocks.



To put a bow on this, the Fed absolutely can cut with stocks near all-time highs and should they do it, this could be another reason for the bulls to have some fun.

Minor Cracks​

We will keep this fairly simple, but the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 20- and 50-day moving averages is lower than it was a month ago, even though the S&P 500 has moved higher. We call this a negative divergence and it could be a clue there is weakness under the surface. Additionally, we are seeing other negative divergences from other indicators we follow. Again, this isn’t over-the-top bearish action, but this coupled with the negative seasonal period we are in could suggest a well-deserved break is possible.



Thanks for reading and be sure to check out our latest Facts vs Feelings with J.C. Parets, Founder of TrendLabs. This was the most viewed episode we’ve ever had and J.C. was hilarious, opinionated, and brought some great takes.

Lastly, I will leave you with this PSA, don’t hold or use scissors like Mr. Powell does! That just looks dangerous.

• The Magnificent 7 ETF ($MAGS) closed lower for a fifth straight day, yet it’s only -3.7% off record highs. Another down day tomorrow would tie for its longest losing streak since the fund was launched in 2023.
  
  
• $MAGS logged its first record high of the year at the end of July, breaking out of a seven-month base by clearing its December peak of $56–$58. If Former resistance doesn't act as support here, it will mark a Failed Breakout.
  
  
• With these seven stocks comprising roughly one-third of the S&P 500, a Failed Breakout would weigh on the broader market. Below $56, Larry highlights potential support near $52, where the 200-day moving average and the AVWAP from April’s lows converge.
  

The Takeaway: The Magnificent 7 ($MAGS) is revisiting the breakout level at $56–$58. This former resistance level should act as support, but a breakdown here would target $52 and weigh on the broader market.






jog on
duc

Powell caves in: LOL











Friday, August 22, 2025

In one of the least eventful trading weeks of 2025, ICE Brent has been trading within a narrow bandwidth of $65.80-67.90 per barrel as the end of summer holidays dragged trading volumes notably lower than usual. The huge drop in US stocks and several refinery upsets across the country (such as the Whiting outage) could’ve triggered a more important pricing reaction, however low liquidity kept daily changes minimal.

Trump Signs Off on New Iran Sanctions. The US Treasury Department added 13 commercial entities in Hong Kong, China and the UAE to its list of Iran-related sanctions, simultaneously banning 8 vessels and two China-based port operators in Qingdao and Yangshan, further tightening its pressure on Iran.

Kazakhstan Eyes Reparations from Oil Majors. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Environment Protection informed oil companies operating in the country that they have 40 days to pay a $4.4 billion fine for sulphur pollution in the country, mostly coming from the offshore Kashagan field in Atyrau region.

US Probes Wind Turbine Imports. The US Commerce Department opened a national security investigation into the country’s imports of wind turbines and components, gauging the impact of foreign subsidies on the competitiveness of the US wind industry, slapping a 50% tariff on wind turbines earlier this week.

Venezuela Opens the Door for Chinese Investors. Chinese private oil firm Concord Resources has agreed to invest more than $1 billion in two Venezuelan oilfields, aiming to produce 60,000 b/d by the end of next year from the Lago Cinco and Lagunillas Lago projects after years of underinvestment.

Ukraine Targets Russia’s Pipelines. For the second time this week, Ukrainian armed forces have bombed the Unecha pumping station on the Russia-Ukraine border, once again halting transportation along the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia and stranding some 210,000 b/d of exports.

Seoul Forces Petchem Sector to Shrink. Guided by the Seoul government, ten South Korean petrochemical companies have agreed to cut their naphtha-cracking capacity by 25%, equivalent to 3-3.5 million tonnes per year, to improve profitability amidst industry-wide overcapacity and low margins.

Indian Refiners Resume Russian Oil Imports. Whilst India’s private refiners never really stopped importing Russian crude, the South Asian nation’s government-controlled companies resumed purchases after a two-week hiatus, as confirmed by company officials of IOC and Bharat Petroleum.

Iraq Welcomes US Oil Majors Back. The Iraqi government signed an agreement in principle with US oil firm Chevron (NYSE:CVX) on the Nassiriya project, comprising four exploration blocks in the southern province of Dhi Qar as well as several producing oil fields, seeking to reach 600,000 b/d within 7 years.

China Doubles Down on Overcapacity Curbs. China’s Industry Ministry organizedanother meeting with solar industry representatives to discuss ways to curb overcapacity, saying producers themselves should promote the decommissioning of outdated capacity to avoid ‘low-price disorderly competition’.

Kurdish Production Is Coming Back. Norway’s upstream firm DNO (OSLNO) reported that it had restarted oil production at the Tawke and Peshkabir fields in Iraqi Kurdistan, halted a month ago due to repeated drone strikes carried out by Iraqi militias, ramping up output to 55,000 b/d on a test basis.

Conoco Locks in Key LNG Contract. US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) agreed to purchase 4 million tonnes of LNG per year from Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG 2 over a 20-year term on a free on board (FOB) basis, having already bought a 30% stake in Port Arthur 1 with an expected commissioning in 2027.

Syria Marks Full Return to Oil Markets. Syria’s Ministry of Petroleum issued a sell tender for at least one cargo of Syrian Heavy crude, the country’s first official attempt to sell its oil since 2011 as the new government in Damascus seeks to ramp up production from 50,000 b/d, one-sixth of its former output.

Norway Finds Even More Oil. Norway’s largest untapped crude project, the 120,000 b/d Yggdrasil developed by Aker BP, saw the discovery of a huge deposit next to its initial find with the Omega Alfa well tapping into 100-130 MMboe of new hydrocarbon reserves, taking the total to 700 MMboe.





Full:https://blockworks.co/news/tether-quasi-sovereign-allocator








jog on
duc