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ASX200 Current Performance

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sileverback

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Just not getting the last 3 days trade from the index point of view.
The US (S&P500) europe (dax) all are strong and have been over the past week. Also no great moves on commodity markets, if anything copper, metal commodities are supportive. Why has our index creeping sideway for 3 days???
 
Vaccine rollout target abandoned for one thing.
 
Ok thanx.
But this time scummo has been relying on actual scientific/medical advice so that has kept things more or less on track. (As against climate change where his scientific advice was coming from the 'wanker from warringah'). Weighing it up, the vaccine chaos seems to be a short term issue. But ok, if that is the reason the asx is holding back, then I think we can expect big catch up to global sentiment when the vaccine issue is 'sorted'.
 
you lost me at the gratuitous slur
 
A lot will also depend on the stocks you hold since in recent times there's quite a lot of stocks heading in one direction and quite a lot heading in the other.

That's to the point that someone could pick literally 50 large and mid cap stocks and have lost money on every single one of them recently. Or they could all be up. Point being stock selection is important - it's not at present a market where everything's just going up.
 
Everyone just have the jitters over these new virus strains. Not sure if you've noticed, but the markets have been a complete shitshow for weeks now.

A couple of days does not a trend make.
 
Thanx for feedback.
I trade the index with options so its the overall market mood sentiment that I try and guage.

Yes the market's been sideways taking a lead I think from the worry of bond yields rising , which happened over here as well (govt 10 yrs)

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The pundit/market commentators were all talking about inflation, Fed easy money etc.
But I read an article saying that the Fed had relaxed capital ratios for banks a while ago to encourage lending to businesses and us small fry, and that the banks had to bring their capital ratio back to the rate set before the relaxation. So the banks had to unwind their assets/bond holdings and this had to be by the end of march.

This seems to fit with the charts above because they are now way below the 'sweat' level happening during march and the impact those high yields were having on valuations esp. the FAANGS.
 
The ASX200 extended last week’s Christmas rally, and is now testing 7500 after breaking a key resistance level this morning. Can this breakout result in a new high in early 2022, or is this just an end of year rally that will run out steam after the holidays?

All trading carries risk, but it should be quite interesting to see how things go when liquidity returns to the market next year.
 
( IMO ) volume will be the key , i have several sell orders in the market , i didn't expect many to be hit before Australia Day , but maybe i will be wrong again
 
The ASX200 is up around 0.9% in early trade, and is currently testing a breakout above the key psychological level of 6700. The local market seems to be tracking the overnight rally seen in Europe and the US as a slight easing of recession fears seems to have boosted risk appetite.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see whether this sentiment can be sustained and spark a near-term uptrend. However, close attention should be paid to tonight’s US NFP Report which will likely play a major role in determining the mood next week.
 
The ASX200 could be flashing warning signs after forming what looks like a shooting star pattern today, failing to hold onto gains above 7000.

From a technical perspective, the sustained break above the key 6950 level alleviated some of the bearish pressure coming from the June sell-off. However, it is hard to ignore how similar today’s candle looks to the one which marked the top in April.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how the market trades heading into the weekend, and whether or not we do see confirmation of bullish momentum fading.

 
Agreed, the SPX likewise as per a few days ago:

Dump it Here

Let's for a second concentrate on the Risk-Reward Ratio When we start evaluating a strategy we are really seeking the answer to one simple question & that is "how do we measure" the success of a strategy? As traders, we are all seeking consistent returns I’m not going to talk about those just...
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Although AUS200 might get one last leg up to 7116-7233 range
 
Last edited:
Further to the post above where I listed a projection range of 7116-7233 for a rally peak. Today there is a good chance that as well as meeting this range with a high of 7144 in the AUS200, this is accompanied by some very important fibonacci and Lucas time cycles both in calendar and trading days culminating today plus or minus a day
 

.
one theory

Martin Conlon, at Schroders, says the divergence runs deeper. “There’s an ever-increasing gulf between the asset price economy and the real economy,” he says. “This results season probably saw more of that.”
...companies that rely on economic activity and dynamism are battling while those hitched to rising prices are being rewarded. The market is not being powered higher by better earnings, but by the willingness of investors to pay more to own those (assured) earnings streams.
 
Dumb money is hitting the markets big time.
 
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