This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

ASX 200 prediction

Jump to new
I'm going for a bear start to the day and an upside finish

@IFocus - I know zip about charting but are we seeing a triple bottom there? Cheers.
 
THE Australian share market slumped to a two-year low yesterday, weighed down by the major banks as hopes for a trade resolution between the US and China dissipated.
 
PZ99 said:
@IFocus - I know zip about charting but are we seeing a triple bottom there? Cheers.
Click to expand...

In a word....no

There was a small buyers zone around 5640 but the close below yesterday took care of that.

Double or triple bottoms usually take a while to form and often you see impulsive buying from the base.


Have high lighted the ideal entry points for Bear note the buy zone in and around the blue MA


 
Reactions: PZ.
bigdog said:
THE Australian share market slumped to a two-year low yesterday, weighed down by the major banks as hopes for a trade resolution between the US and China dissipated.
Click to expand...

Interesting how the media is always looking for a reason as to why the market moved)) The forces at play in the markets are internal + dynamic and feed upon themselves. Human emotions in the form of hope fear and greed are what really propel the markets.. not the reasons the the news gives.
All we can do is decide if there is a trend in place and look for the best point to position ourselves within the trend and totally ignore the news))
 
I have drawn in the wedge Cam raised over on the XAO thread it looks the part as far as decending wedges go but I don't think it fits with the legs down for a possible EW count (Porper?) and looking at the banks its kinda looking like a new low coming up.

Be-aware wedges can break out in the same direction.

On the flip side a decent consolidation is due plus the two days before yesterday saw the buyers turn up.

My own bias based on gut, evidence based rumour, reverse psychology, rolling the dice....three times is that I think we are headed lower, no Xmas rally or a very minor one.


 
At the moment I believe there's a mismatch between narrative and fundamentals.

US Initial Jobless Claims recorded it's 2nd lowest reading in 50 years last week.

The 10 year - 3 Month Yield Curve is still positive by 45 basis points.

Both are significant leading indicators that suggest to me this fall is not going to be the one that is sustained and intensified.
 
Alright, may as well put a prediction here.

I'm cautiously bullish of the indexes (XJO, XAO). Falling wedge lining up with a major support area. MACD also offering bullish divergence and TMF holding above the zero line. Short to intermediate term, I'm calling a reversal back to 5800-5950 for the XJO.

 


This is a monthly chart of the All Ords over the past 30 odd years. It is quite common to see 20%+ high to low declines on a regular basis - there has been 10 in the last 30 years with 2 of them over 50% - as such I wouldn't be surprised to see the All Ords get down to 5200 ish - that would be about a 20% decline from the most recent high of about 6500.
 
As I said in November, my guess is 5250, we could always run a sweep. lol

If the Trump sentiment and press stays negative, if the U.S keeps raising interest rates, if Labor stay with the negative gearing, CGT and franking credits platform, the only way is down.IMO

There is nothing on the horizon than can improve the negative sentiment, as Willy1111 said 20% falls are pretty common not once in a lifetime events, despite the press saying everything is.

The only possible scenario that could save the ASX, is if the Libs come up with a keen and cunning plan, but I think Baldrick has a better chance of that.
 
So after my indicators suggested this current -15% decline is occuring slighty too early I looked back at the XAO to see if there was any precedent:

In 2001 the XAO lost and regained -17% in 2 months, 5 months before reaching the DotCom Peak
In 2007 the XAO lost and regained -13% in 6 months, 2 months before reaching the GFC Peak
 
Last edited:
MrChow said:
So after my indicators suggested this current -15% decline is occuring slighty too early I looked back at the XAO to see if there was any precedent:
Click to expand...
Noted that both of those examples were major tops, not just minor ones.

My "big picture" view that I've mentioned in various threads is that we're "somewhere in the vicinity of a major top". That doesn't mean the actual top is in, although it could be, but we're somewhere in the vicinity of it in terms of long term cycles (eg the present up swing since the GFC).

There will be another rally, we could even see a new high in the US markets in particular, but if you're taking a long term approach that's an opportunity to sell in my view.
 
MrChow said:
US Initial Jobless Claims recorded it's 2nd lowest reading in 50 years last week.
Click to expand...

Right. A cyclical peak. How much lower can it go before wage growth has to jump higher and subsequently start to crush profit margins?

Very low unemployment is an end of cycle indicator.

The 10 year - 3 Month Yield Curve is still positive by 45 basis points.
Click to expand...

The curve does not need to invert and nor does inversion guarantee anything.

The flatness is bad enough.

Especially with this level of debt in the economy.

Both are significant leading indicators that suggest to me this fall is not going to be the one that is sustained and intensified.
Click to expand...

The stock market is not the economy. You're thinking of the bond and credit markets.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
The stock market is not the economy. You're thinking of the bond and credit markets.
Click to expand...

Never has a truer word been said.IMO
The stock market is more an indicator, of investor sentiment. Just my opinion.
People are buying and selling, on expectation, that is untill the direction is obvious.
 
Santa bypassed the markets this year 15% ish drop so far in the run down could the Trump factor be the issue among others creating uncertainty who knows.

Where to from here?

Still early days for a real bear market and we are over due a proper consolidation from where we will get a better idea of further market direction.

In terms of levels 5200 is likely next stop and we need to be below 4800 to be looking at a GFC run down, any thing below the lows of Feb 2016 (4760 ish) would be a cause for concern.

Note Cams wedge has broken to the down side will be interesting to see if price re-enters the wedge pattern or the wedge base forms resistance.


 
Courtesy of Bigdogs post:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5 percent or 1,086 points to 22,878. It was the Dow’s biggest one-day point gain ever.

The benchmark S&P 500 gained 5 percent or 116 points to 2,467. Nasdaq rose 5.8 percent or 361 points to 6,554."

Things are looking up this morning?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B
Adjustments to the S&P ASX Indicies
Replies
2
Views
371
Dona Ferentes
ASX 200 Discussion
17 18 19
Replies
377
Views
43K
finicky
4 reasons why the ASX 200 will struggle in September
Replies
8
Views
562
DannyB0000
Looking for microcaps
Replies
14
Views
1K
bluekelah
G200- Betashares Wealth Builder Australia 200 Geared Complex ETF
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dona Ferentes
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...