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ASX 200 prediction

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If support at 5,600 fails it looks like the next stop is 5,200. The geopolitical situation is still pretty tense at the moment. China and the USA at war over tariffs, Saudi Arabia under fire over Jamal Khashoggi's murder. I'm expecting gold to remain firm while equities weaken in December if circumstances do not improve.

 
A near term upward pivot is possible, but the XJO is a technical Bear, so it's a high risk play
 

Don't count your chickens just yet. Chinese PMI conditions are barely sitting above 50 which is a key trigger for contraction. Next results will be delivered 30 Nov though looking at the chart below does spell some weakness - Macq bank China Business Cycle Indicator which is the leading indicator. This article provides further perspective https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2018/11/22/china-s-warning/

 
Friday, sellers had an RDO, buyers unconvincing volume.

A mob I know that sell into China have just cut back production by 25% which surprised me maybe not looking at MM's post above.



 
All I see is a santa rally.
I'm hoping for a short term rally, and getting behind BBOZ and BBUS. ASX is overvalued and due for a correction.
Looking forward to a trade war and the banks to sink.


All hail the bears!
 
mcgrath111 said:
All I see is a santa rally.
I'm hoping for a short term rally, and getting behind BBOZ and BBUS. ASX is overvalued and due for a correction.
Looking forward to a trade war and the banks to sink.


All hail the bears!
Click to expand...

You still think ASX is overvalued even after this latest correction?
 
mcgrath111 said:
I think there's more to come. Yet I've been bearish for the last year. Far more to come IMO, just a prediction.
Click to expand...

That concurs with what Wilson Asset Management and Chris Richardson from Access Economics thinks too.

Chris Richardson thinks Australia is headed for some VERY tough times eventually and we haven't been heeding the warnings.
 
Any of you smarter folk betting on the ASX? On even days it sinks, on odd days it rises, or is it the other way around. Feeling sea sick just watching the ASX.
 
Darc Knight said:
Any of you smarter folk betting on the ASX? On even days it sinks, on odd days it rises, or is it the other way around. Feeling sea sick just watching the ASX.
Click to expand...
There is always opportunity, it is just pointless IMO, jumping in when you feel the bottom hasn't been found.
Good traders will be having a field day.
 
Its a choppy old climb establishing a small trend up not a great sign at these levels and the main down trend is still well and truly in play.

Anyone's guess for a Xmas rally they don't always come.

 
Darc Knight said:
Dow down 3.1℅. S&P 500 down 3.2%.

Any predictions other than blood?
Click to expand...
Might touch below 5600 by noon - no idea after that.

It's tempting to sell on open and buy back later but if it starts low and climbs up you're buggered.
 
On the big down days I used to pick a stock that looked weak and place a position below the break often they wouldn't fall on the open and you would get filled also often the price would gap over and I would miss the train, chasing index's or futures is a sure way to lose money IMHO.
 
I sold my NAB on open and got them back for $23.90 + picked up BOQ as the worst dropper.

A bit of pocket money
 
I'm personally high conviction on +10% by March of 6200.

Every short term risk factor eventually still leads to testing new highs if there isn't an actual economic problem and most of the gains in the market are made over our Summer-Autumn.
 
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