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Today
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Today
Market Matters
James Hardie Industries (JHX) -27.83% was hit hard after posting earnings well below expectations, with North American EBIT significantly weaker.
Market Matters
James Hardie Industries (JHX) -27.83% was hit hard after posting earnings well below expectations, with North American EBIT significantly weaker.
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Today:
IPH hammered
BXB surged.
Market Matters:
IPH hammered
BXB surged.
Market Matters:
- Brambles (BXB) +13.22% jumped after announcing a US$400 million buyback and delivering results slightly ahead of consensus, with guidance for FY26 considered conservative but supportive of continued growth.
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Repeating Breg Canavan't cautionary note t9day.
"... but remember, it’s a bull market! Most people are doing ok. But it’s also an environment where people get overconfident. Capital becomes impatient, less discerning and will buy up just about anything. That’s why bull markets can make you look like a genius. Don’t believe it! Stay humble.
That’s why it’s important to have a process and stick to it. Bull markets can test your discipline. They cause you to speculate when you think you’re investing. But sticking to your process prevents that.
I think a lot more speculation than investing is happening right now. Valuation principles are out the window. Many good quality stocks are priced for very poor long-term returns. But when everyone is having a good (short-term) time, no one really cares about long-term outcomes.
When earnings meet expectations, or at least don’t disappoint, prices keep rising. But richly priced stocks that disappoint get hammered.
Just look at what happened to CSL [ASX:CSL] and James Hardie [ASX:JHX], down 17% and nearly 30% on the day of their results respectively.
I can tell you I’m really struggling to find decent businesses that have a chance of delivering on our 12% return target. This is why the cash balance is at 25% of the portfolio. It will hurt us if the market keeps rallying, but will give us good options if a sell-off unfolds in the coming months."
"... but remember, it’s a bull market! Most people are doing ok. But it’s also an environment where people get overconfident. Capital becomes impatient, less discerning and will buy up just about anything. That’s why bull markets can make you look like a genius. Don’t believe it! Stay humble.
That’s why it’s important to have a process and stick to it. Bull markets can test your discipline. They cause you to speculate when you think you’re investing. But sticking to your process prevents that.
I think a lot more speculation than investing is happening right now. Valuation principles are out the window. Many good quality stocks are priced for very poor long-term returns. But when everyone is having a good (short-term) time, no one really cares about long-term outcomes.
When earnings meet expectations, or at least don’t disappoint, prices keep rising. But richly priced stocks that disappoint get hammered.
Just look at what happened to CSL [ASX:CSL] and James Hardie [ASX:JHX], down 17% and nearly 30% on the day of their results respectively.
I can tell you I’m really struggling to find decent businesses that have a chance of delivering on our 12% return target. This is why the cash balance is at 25% of the portfolio. It will hurt us if the market keeps rallying, but will give us good options if a sell-off unfolds in the coming months."
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Today
Chicken slaughterers, Inghams Group the big loser today
Zip Co the big winner on strong profit results.
Cash EBTDA (the company's preferred measure of profit):$170.3 million, up a massive 147.0% from the previous year.
Operating Margin: Almost doubled from 7.9% to 15.8%, showing the business is becoming much more efficient and profitable as it grows.
Chicken slaughterers, Inghams Group the big loser today
Zip Co the big winner on strong profit results.
Cash EBTDA (the company's preferred measure of profit):$170.3 million, up a massive 147.0% from the previous year.
Operating Margin: Almost doubled from 7.9% to 15.8%, showing the business is becoming much more efficient and profitable as it grows.
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performances yesterday (Monday)
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Imdex (IMD) biggest loser broker downgrades
Nuix big winner - 3 broker upgrades to Buy
Imdex (IMD) biggest loser
broker downgradesNuix big winner - 3 broker upgrades to Buy
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Only 4 out of the Top 10 for me Thanks Ace
#3 BOE
#5 DYL x3
#6 PDN
#9 WTC
and Only 1 out of the Top 10 Losers
#6 MIN
but in defence we Hoisted her on 14 April 2025 ( refer to the Ship's Log )and we are still laughing, +104.19% So Far, So Good and Holding
#3 BOE
#5 DYL x3
#6 PDN
#9 WTC
and Only 1 out of the Top 10 Losers
#6 MIN
but in defence we Hoisted her on 14 April 2025 ( refer to the Ship's Log )and we are still laughing, +104.19% So Far, So Good and Holding
Last edited:
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Today
IEL on top, has happened before, go figure. Looking like another contrarian opportunity missed.
IEL on top, has happened before, go figure. Looking like another contrarian opportunity missed.
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Today
This WEEK
IDP Education (IEL)!
This WEEK
IDP Education (IEL)!
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What a day for the goldies
IDP Education still with a show.
IDP Education still with a show.
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PolyNovo (PNV) +7.2% higher on news that Medicare reimbursement changes in the US a likely tailwind.
NRW Holdings (NWH) +8% announced the purchase of Fredon Industries for $200m.
REH continued its downtrend after a few days of price support
Bapcor still an avoid it looks.
PolyNovo (PNV) +7.2% higher on news that Medicare reimbursement changes in the US a likely tailwind.
NRW Holdings (NWH) +8% announced the purchase of Fredon Industries for $200m.
REH continued its downtrend after a few days of price support
Bapcor still an avoid it looks.
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Continuation of overvalued quality growth stocks getting marked down. Imagine what'll happen to them in a crash.
Continuation of overvalued quality growth stocks getting marked down. Imagine what'll happen to them in a crash.
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Today
Iress on top today. I see it had a very strong positive volume month in August upon its H1 results where underflying eps, ex divestments, was up 19% , statutory eps was flat.
Market Matters says, "Iress (IRE) +6.97% jumped following the appointment of ex-Bravura Andrew Russell as CEO, replacing Marcus Price."
Megaport slammed again like yesterday, high valuation growth stocks corrective trend?
Iress on top today. I see it had a very strong positive volume month in August upon its H1 results where underflying eps, ex divestments, was up 19% , statutory eps was flat.
Market Matters says, "Iress (IRE) +6.97% jumped following the appointment of ex-Bravura Andrew Russell as CEO, replacing Marcus Price."
Megaport slammed again like yesterday, high valuation growth stocks corrective trend?
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Today
- Gold names rallied near record bullion levels – Regis Resources (RRL) +5.6%, Genesis Minerals (GMD) +5.51%, Bellevue Gold (BGL) +4.57% and Perseus (PRU) +3.66% the strongest.
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Best and Worst of the WEEK
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Market Matters:
"Gold remains the standout macro theme into September with ETF flows at records, though local gold equities continue to lag.
Gold held near record highs (~US$3600/oz) on Fed rate-cut bets, yet local gold miners failed to fire – Evolution (EVN) -1.43%, Perseus (PRU) -0.24%, Newmont (NEM) -0.63%.
Weaker oil prices dragged down local producers– Woodside (WDS) -2.73%, Beach Energy (BPT) -1.66% and Santos (STO) -1.15%."
Market Matters:
"Gold remains the standout macro theme into September with ETF flows at records, though local gold equities continue to lag.
Gold held near record highs (~US$3600/oz) on Fed rate-cut bets, yet local gold miners failed to fire – Evolution (EVN) -1.43%, Perseus (PRU) -0.24%, Newmont (NEM) -0.63%.
Weaker oil prices dragged down local producers– Woodside (WDS) -2.73%, Beach Energy (BPT) -1.66% and Santos (STO) -1.15%."
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Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Tuesday, 9 September 2025
Wollongong, Australia
By Greg Canavan
Is the tide about to turn?
Dear Ace,
"Stock markets in the US and Australia remain tricky here.
Signs of economic weakness are increasing. Bond markets in the US are finally starting to rise (meaning bond yields are declining).
The 2-year yield is at three-year lows, while the 10-year bond yield is at 4.04%, after hitting 4.8% at the start of the year.
This suggests that worries about inflation are giving way to concerns over slower growth. Tariffs (a tax on trade) and lower immigration levels (impacting growth and employment) look like they’re starting to bite the US economy.
Yet so far, equity markets refuse to meaningfully correct.
It’s the same old story. Investors are celebrating economic weakness because it means lower interest rates.
Lower rates will no doubt benefit some stocks and sectors more than others. But in a market that is already one of the most expensive in history, I’m sceptical of the ability of monetary policy to keep prices levitating in a slowing economy.
If the market decides that the Fed is ‘behind the curve’, meaning it has left rates too high for too long, it will sell first and ask questions later.
So keep an eye on how the market reacts on September 16, which is the day of the Fed’s interest rate decision. A ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ event could mark a turning point in this post-tariff world rally.
All this means there’s still too much risk and not enough reward for investors. So we must remain disciplined and cautious. Doing nothing is doing something.
Having a permanent capital mindset means we view investing as a marathon, not a sprint. We must constantly focus on long-term outcomes and ignore short-term impulses.
While opportunities remain scarce, reporting season did throw up a few interesting options. Mainly thanks to the market’s complete lack of patience with any company that disappointed.
On the other hand, any company that posted good growth numbers saw its share price rally sharply.
This creates a situation where, right now, good companies will likely produce poor investment outcomes while ‘bad’ companies (or companies that are at least out of favour) will probably make for good long-term investments.
Two ‘bad’ companies that I have followed closely for some time are very much out of favour right now. And they could end up making for good long-term investments.
These two companies are ... "
(this is finicky speaking .. not going to tell you, lol, one is much discussed here.)
Tuesday, 9 September 2025
Wollongong, Australia
By Greg Canavan
Is the tide about to turn?
Dear Ace,
"Stock markets in the US and Australia remain tricky here.
Signs of economic weakness are increasing. Bond markets in the US are finally starting to rise (meaning bond yields are declining).
The 2-year yield is at three-year lows, while the 10-year bond yield is at 4.04%, after hitting 4.8% at the start of the year.
This suggests that worries about inflation are giving way to concerns over slower growth. Tariffs (a tax on trade) and lower immigration levels (impacting growth and employment) look like they’re starting to bite the US economy.
Yet so far, equity markets refuse to meaningfully correct.
It’s the same old story. Investors are celebrating economic weakness because it means lower interest rates.
Lower rates will no doubt benefit some stocks and sectors more than others. But in a market that is already one of the most expensive in history, I’m sceptical of the ability of monetary policy to keep prices levitating in a slowing economy.
If the market decides that the Fed is ‘behind the curve’, meaning it has left rates too high for too long, it will sell first and ask questions later.
So keep an eye on how the market reacts on September 16, which is the day of the Fed’s interest rate decision. A ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ event could mark a turning point in this post-tariff world rally.
All this means there’s still too much risk and not enough reward for investors. So we must remain disciplined and cautious. Doing nothing is doing something.
Having a permanent capital mindset means we view investing as a marathon, not a sprint. We must constantly focus on long-term outcomes and ignore short-term impulses.
While opportunities remain scarce, reporting season did throw up a few interesting options. Mainly thanks to the market’s complete lack of patience with any company that disappointed.
On the other hand, any company that posted good growth numbers saw its share price rally sharply.
This creates a situation where, right now, good companies will likely produce poor investment outcomes while ‘bad’ companies (or companies that are at least out of favour) will probably make for good long-term investments.
Two ‘bad’ companies that I have followed closely for some time are very much out of favour right now. And they could end up making for good long-term investments.
These two companies are ... "
(this is finicky speaking .. not going to tell you, lol, one is much discussed here.)
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Today
Market Matters:
"Gold hit a fresh record above US$3647/oz, fueled by bets on three Fed cuts this year, taking YTD gains close to +40%. Goldman Sachs even flagged the potential for bullion to test US$5000/oz if investors rotate from Treasuries."
"Energy producers fell on OPEC+’s decision to lift output – Woodside (WDS) -1.2% & Santos (STO) -0.91% among the oil stocks lower."
Market Matters:
"Gold hit a fresh record above US$3647/oz, fueled by bets on three Fed cuts this year, taking YTD gains close to +40%. Goldman Sachs even flagged the potential for bullion to test US$5000/oz if investors rotate from Treasuries."
"Energy producers fell on OPEC+’s decision to lift output – Woodside (WDS) -1.2% & Santos (STO) -0.91% among the oil stocks lower."
Sean K
Moderator
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Is one CSL?
