ASX 200 Discussion

Iluka (ILU) top of the pops! Visionary .. Seer .. Prophet? I'll leave it to you as to what superlative best fits my foresight.
Liberal sprinkling of goldies amongst the Losers.

From Market Matters afternoon report
marketmatters.com.au

"ASX opened with a bang this morning hitting a 8051 high early on – up ~80pts, taking the rally from the April 7 low to +882pts/12.3%. However, profit taking emerged from mid-morning with the index losing ~70% of the morning gains.

While we continue to anticipate the market will climb through 2025, we are conscious that following the last few weeks’ strong recovery, a period of consolidation feels overdue, which coincides with the average price action of the ASX200 over the last decade: Following a strong April, May & June have combined to deliver a net -0.26% return."

• The ASX200 added+28ts/+0.36% closing at 7997
• Energy (+1.6%), IT (+1.4%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.3%) led the line.
• Materials (-0.60%) the only sector lower, while Industrials (+0.02%) and Financials (+0.3%) underwhelmed.
• The index heavyweights BHP -1.05% and CBA -1.14% took 15 points from the index alone.
• ANZ Bank (ANZ) +1.63% rose after Citigroup upgraded the stock from sell to neutral with a $27.50 price target."

Northern Star worst performer today.
I see Bell Potter has downgraded GOR to neutral

Some insights I wouldn't have thought of from Market Matters as to what rocket boosters there are that might fire underneath the ASX. Untriggered things that currently could advantage it cf S&P 500. As an aside, I saw a note from CommsSc just today that said they are have trouble processing an unusual volume of international orders? Didn't say whether incoming or outgoing that I recall.

"The ASX200 rallied strongly throughout Tuesday, hardly taking a backwards step all day to close up +0.9% on broad-based buying that saw almost 90% of the main board close higher. Local stocks are benefiting from some overseas money finding its way into the ASX, which has outperformed the US in 2025, although a few months doesn’t make a year. The $A has struggled against several major currencies over recent years, mainly due to the insipid Chinese economy. Still, whatever the reason, with the $A down 20% against the Euro since 2022 and 20% against the Greenback since 2021, our major companies will look appetising to overseas fund managers holding cash in their respective currencies. Also, as they often don’t hedge their overseas positions, the attraction is compounded if they think the $A has become good value.

At the COB of Tuesday, the ASX200 was down -1.1% year-to-date while the S&P500 had retreated 6%.
As we all know, crowded and complacent positions often lead to sharp moves. International investors entered 2025 with a record 18% ownership of US stocks, primarily concentrated in the “Magnificent Seven.” Australian investors poured a record $5 billion into Wall Street-focused exchange-traded funds in 2024 – it was all too easy for a while. If just a small portion of these funds are coming home due to Trump’s uncertainty, it’s likely to have a massive impact on the much smaller Australian market; depending on the timing, the S&P500 has recently been up to 20x larger than the ASX200. Flows data suggests offshore investors, in particular, have been moving into our financials, given their relatively limited impact from US tariffs – remember CBA’s perplexing surge to fresh all-time highs last week.

We continue to believe investors have largely “missed the boat” and are holding significant cash levels with the market already recouping over 60% of its sharp decline over the last few months, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) is one thing that’s gaining momentum. While our preferred scenario has been that the market will take a rest around the 8000 level, we remain net bullish, believing the surprises will continue to be on the upside, i.e. “buy the dip” when one finally arrives. Also, local investors will be watching our banks closely, with many of them paying attractive fully franked dividends in May.

With overseas money pushing our large caps higher, we can see further strength into the EOFY.
Overseas markets were mainly firm overnight, led by US bourses. In Europe, it was a more mixed affair with the EURO STOXX 50 slipping -0.17% while the UK FTSE advanced +0.55%. In the US, the S&P 500 extended its advance to six consecutive sessions after Secretary of Commerce Lutnick hinted he had negotiated a trade deal, the S&P 500 ended up +0.7% and the tech-based NASDAQ +0.6%. From an earnings perspective, Big Tech kicks off tomorrow with Meta Platforms and Microsoft, followed by Apple and Amazon on Friday.

The ASX200 is set to open up ~0.4% this morning, back around the 8100 level.
A200
MM remains cautiously bullish toward the ASX200 through 2025"

From Market Matters

The ASX200 rose +55pts/+0.69% closing at 8126.
Technology (+1.64%), Real Estate (+1.58%) and Healthcare (+1.34%) winners on the day.
Utilities (-1.48%), Energy (-0.51%), Materials (-0.43%) weighed.
Consumer price index data was released at 11:30am this morning and showed the RBA’s key gauge Trimmed Mean (ex-volatile items), advanced +0.7% in the March quarter vs +0.5% from the quarter prior vs a consensus gain of +0.6%.

Today

At opening on the ASX this morning 50/50 on my watchlist.
Trouble is the red ones are the ones I am most interested in at the moment.

Sorry, forgot Friday's summary.
Energy best sector. Maybe my nibbles at WHC, NHC and BPT will start to pay off. Too timid to add to WDS.
Guess it's mostly down to uranium stocks though so far.

from Market Matters

"The trend of ‘risk off into the weekend’, prevalent in early April, has well and truly flipped as the ASX closed higher on the final trading day of the week for the 3rd consecutive week this afternoon. The ASX surged to its highest close in two months after news from China suggested US officials have come to the table, ready to talk tariffs. It was a slow and measured grind higher through the day with energy stocks the key drivers of the broad-based rally.

The ASX200 rose +92pts/+1.13% closing at 8238.
Energy (+1.98%), Healthcare (+1.93%) and Consumer Staples (+1.70%) the winners on the day.
Industrials (0.00%) flat on the day, the worst performer, highlighting the breadth of the move up."

Movers on Friday


Individual Movers for the WEEK


Sector Movers over the WEEK

So with the Federal Election now done and dusted with Albo's lot having a convincing win, how will the ASX perform on Monday.
Will it be Monumental Monday with a healthy green at the start and continue till the final day's bell.
I'm hoping so.

Market Matters: a few excerpts from commentary and a subscriber Q&A over the w/e

"Wall Street stocks advanced on Friday, notching their second straight week of gains, helped by strong jobs data and potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
We continue to believe the ASX200 will climb through 2025, although one or two bumps in the road are to be expected. After the aggressive nature of the recovery by risk assets over the last three weeks, we have become more bullish:
We continue to anticipate the ASX will rally through 2025 with a break to new all-time highs, looking increasingly likely after overseas money has started buying."

"Hi Paul
PEXA Group (PEXA): For members of MM who are not familiar with PXA its an Australian technology company that operates a digital platform for property settlements and related services. Its expansion into the UK signifies its commitment to bringing digital transformation to property transactions globally and by definition opens the doors to a share price rerating.

PXA reported strongly in February, including a $50mn buyback. We believe the stock looks great around $12 after getting FCA approval for its Sale & Purchase Product with a test of $15 not out of the question, hence we remain long the stock, seeing it as a great medium to long term opportunity."

"Hi Debbie,
BetaShares Uranium ETF (URNM) – In line with our Thursday morning AM Report we are bullish towards the local and international uranium stocks and the ASX-traded URNM ETF is an excellent way to gain broad exposure to a basket of global uranium stocks, plus the physical commodity, with an expense ratio of 0.69% pa:

Currently the ETF holdings include: 15.1% Cameco, 13.4% NC Kazatomprom, 13% Physical Uranium, 5.1% in Boss Energy (BOE) and 4.3% in Deep Yellow (DYL).
However, the downside is if we do get an aggressive short squeeze in the ASX sector names it will be diluted across the other ETF holdings. i.e. there will be greater returns from owning PDN or BOE directly as opposed to the URNM. It really just comes down to risk. Lower risk/return = URNM, higher risk/return = BOE/PDN."

The market cheered the alp today with a nasty fall..my portfolio mirrored
I guess the bigger corporates will be the winners as usual with the ALP so was a bit surprised I would gave expected the big banks, miners and duopoly retailers to celebrate

qldfrog said:

The market cheered the alp today with a nasty fall..my portfolio mirrored
I guess the bigger corporates will be the winners as usual with the ALP so was a bit surprised I would gave expected the big banks, miners and duopoly retailers to celebrate

Click to expand...

Unfortunately a good as dead day trading day.
Nothing lost but nothing gained either.
I was hoping to see a more positive outlook from the ASX.

US futures have been down about 1% all day which probably didn't help. Buy the rumour sell the fact comes to mind in regards to the election result also.

Today

I had a pleasant win with CHN this morning at the opening bell or close to it.
Sold at my determined SP so happy as.

Today

Market Matters

"A second day of declines for the ASX, though it was hardly aggressive, and more stocks actually rose than fell, as banks and healthcare names weighed at the index level. The Macquarie conference kicked off this morning and we’ve seen a bunch of companies recut guidance, more on the downside than upside which is customary but it wasn’t all bad news with several re-affirming prior numbers.

The ASX200 fell -6pts/-0.08% closing at 8154
Energy (+0.81%), Property (+0.78) and Materials (+0.62%) in the winners circle.
Healthcare (-1.86%), Consumer Staples (-0.47%) and Financials (-0.42%) dragged."

Today

From Market Matters

"It was a mixed session for the local bourse as China’s long-awaited rate cuts came into play, lifting commodities and energy stocks higher. A solid result from NAB provided the bedrock for a decent rally through the middle of the day, with US futures giving an extra kick amid expectations Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to meet senior Chinese officials in Switzerland on Thursday.

• The ASX200 rose +26pts/+0.33% closing at 8178
• Energy (+2.12%), Real Estate (+0.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.78%) winners of the day.
• Healthcare (-1.47%) and Technology (-0.13%) the only two sectors lower on the day.
• China’s central bank said it would cut a key interest rate to stimulate the economy, and reduce the lending rate to commercial banks by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent."

five weeks

Today

"A fairly quiet day across the board, though, it was positive with 75% of the main board finishing in the green as Trump talks up trade deals…”Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M.,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform. “The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!”

• The ASX200 rose +13pts/+0.16% closing at 8191
• Energy (+2.12%), Real Estate (+0.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.78%) winners of the day.
• Healthcare (-1.47%) and Technology (-0.13%) the only two sectors lower on the day."

Today
From Market Matters

"Technology stocks led the way today as the market opened a soft +10pts higher but quickly gained momentum following a positive session in the US overnight where risk-on sentiment fuelled small caps higher after framework around trade policy between the White House and the UK firmed – a 10% base, though potential rollback of certain tariffs remains in play. Nine out of eleven sectors were higher in a broad-based move though commodity stocks surprisingly dragged despite optimism toward trade talks, with Chinese representatives and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to meet in the coming days.

The ASX200 rose +39pts/+0.48% closing at 8231
Technology (+1.82%), Financials (+1.10%) and Consumer Staples (+1.03%) led the line.
Materials (-0.46%) and Real Estate (-0.01%) dragged.
Macquarie Group (MQG) +3.79% posted 1H25 results, net income rose 5% to A$3.72 billion as a 33% surge in asset management profits offset a 12% drop in commodities and global markets performance."