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ASX 200 Discussion

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ShareSuccess said:
Thanks mate!....yeah a Bit Confusing,maybe Market index has it wrong?....Who Knows.
CNI
MARKET CAP
$1.39B
ORDINARY SHARES
830.09M
SECTOR RANK
25 of 97
ASX RANK
274 of 2,324
Click to expand...
has that one dropped a fair bit in share price in the last few months ... if so , it is liable to be booted out in the next re-balance , 201 to 205 might still hang in there with share price and take-over activity ... but 274 suggests it will be evicted soon .
 
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"The final trading day of the month carried the ASX to a 3.8% gain over the period and now within ~200pts of all-time highs with investors brushing off tariff risk and shifting focus back to fundamentals. Seven out of eleven sectors finished in positive territory with gold stocks particularly strong, though it was the Big Four banks that did most of the hard work, accounting for +22pts for the index on their own as CBA closed on yet another record high.

  • The ASX200 rose +24pts/+0.3% closing at 8434
  • Utilities (+1.18%), Consumer Staples (+0.96%) and Financials (+0.73%) in the winner’s circle.
  • Energy (-1.37%), Technology (-0.58%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.45%) dragged.
  • Australian retail sales data was released at 11:30am and came in weaker than expected with negative sales growth of –0.3% vs consensus +0.1%."
 
Market Matters morning report excerpt

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My bold

ASX200 Index

"The ASX200 advanced +0.9% last week pushing the index within striking distance of its all-time. However, the upside momentum has been slowly diminishing through May. The market feels like it needs a “rest” before pushing back above 8600, but in line with the German DAX and Canadian TSX Composite Index we continue to believe it’s a matter of when, not if, we start talking about whether the local index can reach 8800, or even 9000, with the later likely to need our resources sector to regain their “mojo”.

We are looking for stocks and sector rotation to dominate through June, but the index surprises are likely to remain on the upside.
The above views suggest that “risk on” should emerge as the outperformer in the 2nd half of the year, but we wouldn’t be chasing the market at current levels, it “feels” like a better than 50-50 chance that a pullback will unfold in the coming weeks, i.e. we are sticking with our mantra for 2025 of “Buy the Dip”.

The SPI Futures are calling the ASX200 to open up +0.3% this morning, back above 8450.[
MM is cautiously bullish on the ASX200 through 2025
 
Excerpt from Market Matters morning report. References to ASX200 refer mostly to yesterday. Bold is mine:

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"The ASX200 started June on the back foot, slipping 0.2%. Overall, this was not a bad performance, considering that further geopolitical uncertainty rattled global markets after a few quiet weeks; the S&P 500 futures were down ~0.5% during our trading session.

The US and China accused each other of violating an interim trade deal concluded last month, weighing on most major Asian indices.
Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russian territory, and reports Iran has boosted its weapons-grade uranium production.
Trump also said he would double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, weighing on stocks like South32 (S32), which fell 3.6%.

Just when investors thought it was safe to go back into the market, stocks reminded them that they had already bounced over 23% since mid-April, making them a tad vulnerable to some bad news. Additionally, we should remember that June is typically a choppy month, with significant activity on the stock and sector levels, but relatively small fluctuations on the index level. We will cover some of this later when we bore into some of the miners who experienced a very different Monday, in this case, “same tune, different day” with gold stocks soaring while lithium stocks fell into the abyss.

We continue to target the 8800-9000 area through 2025, but short term, the market is looking tired, and some consolidation wouldn’t surprise."
 
Today
In todays news, @Garpal Gumnut's back fkd up again pulling beers - not to mention his rolladoor, but spare a thought for the IDP Education (IEL) shareholders.

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"A solid day for the ASX hitting new 3-month highs buoyed by strength across the financial sector with an average gain across the big 4 banks of 1.3%, while gold stocks rallied as bullion tested ~$US3400/oz overnight. A strong open was met with selling not long after, knocking ~40pts off the index before midday as Chinese PMIs came in weaker, until the buy the dip mentality resumed as a slow and steady climb ensued through the second half of the session to close within a few points of the high of the day.
  • The ASX200 rose +52pts/+0.63% closing at 8466
  • Financials (+1.12%), Real Estate (+0.90%) and Consumer Staples (+0.78%) did most of the hard work.
  • Healthcare (-0.34%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.17%) the weakest of the bunch.
  • The Fair Work Commission has awarded an increase of 3.5% to up to 2.9m workers on minimum award rates.
  • The increase will lift the national minimum wage from $24.10 an hour, or $915.90 a week, to $24.94 an hour or about $922 a week.
  • Chinese manufacturing data was a lot softer than expected this morning, with the Caixin PMI printing 48.3 vs 50.7 forecast, showing contraction + it was its lowest level in more than two years. The trade war starting to bite, not just in China, but also in the US where data is also slowing.
  • IDP Education (IEL) -48.06% hit after announcing a profit downgrade because of falling testing volumes, amid continued uncertainty for global immigration and trade policy.
  • Gold stocks were a standout today, spot gold testing $US3400/oz underpinning good gains from the gold stocks, although they did trade back from session highs which were set first up this morning.
  • Evolution Mining (EVN) +3.95%, Northern Star (NST) +1.82%, Newmont (NEM) +4.26% all tested new all-time highs."
 
There is just the plain good, bad and ugly.
 
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My bold:

"The bulls came to play today with the ASX having a great session, but more interestingly, the higher beta parts of the market like BNPL, Uranium , Lithium all attracted solid buying, but it wasn’t at the expense of the much loved ‘certainty’ trade which remained well bid, implying new money is starting to gravitate back into the market. Weak GDP data released at 11.30am should underpin a more aggressive stance towards rate cuts from the RBA, and as a long as things cool rather than crater, lower rates should see stocks trade higher.

The ASX200 rallied +75pts/+0.89% closing at 8541
Energy (+2.26%), Conusmer Discretionary (+1.39%) and Financials (+1.27%) were clear winners.
Consumer Staples (-0.27%) and Communications (-0.18%) the only sectors down on the day.
Australian GDP printed just +0.2% in the three months to March, well below the 0.4% expected or 1.3% YoY. This is a soft print, and the door is wide ajar for the RBA to be more aggressive on rate cuts, with 3 and maybe 4 now being priced in this side of Christmas.
The AUD dipped but only mildly, while Aussie 2-year yields were lower on the print, but ended largely unchanged at 3.28%, implying the market is already factoring in a sequence of reductions"

 
Australian GDP printed just +0.2% in the three months to March, well below the 0.4% expected or 1.3% YoY. This is a soft print, and the door is wide ajar for the RBA to be more aggressive on rate cuts, with 3 and maybe 4 now being priced in this side of Christmas.

Hopefully will spur on the real estate sector!
 
Today:
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Mineral Resources top of the ladder!?
- "Lithium stocks rallied after Albemarle received a US$150m grant from the US government to build a new processing facility – Mineral Resources (MIN) +14.8% and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) +12.5% were particularly strong."

 

Food for Thought!​

​

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Australia​

Percentage of Australian Equity General funds that underperformed the S&P/ASX 200
85.13%

of funds underperformed the
S&P/ASX 200

14.87%
of funds outperformed the
S&P ASX 200
Fund CategoryComparison Index% of funds that underperformed benchmark
1 YR (%)3 YRS (%)5 YRS (%)10 YRS (%)15 YRS (%)
Australian Equity GeneralS&P/ASX 20055.6374.5973.8482.7185.13
Australian Equity Mid- and Small-CapS&P/ASX Mid-Small Index37.4355.0951.9272.0057.85


​

 
seems to confirm my suspicions , most active managers are focused on short term ( 'sugar hits ' )

out-performance diminishes over time ,now that could be because some older funds/LICs have vanished ( failed , taken-over , or merged ), and newer fresher entrants , simply haven't operated for 5 ( or 10 or 15 ) years

although .... my other concern is some 'Mickey Mouse ' performance hurdles some of these funds seem to set themselves
 
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Wow, hadn't realised that Whitehaven was even close to best performer today - stoked.
Another coal stock, Coronado (CRN), reared up from the depths 12%
" - Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +3.58% traded higher on a positive broker note from Morgan Stanley citing on-track cost out initiatives and growth optionality at their Daunia and Blackwater assets."

 
ShareSuccess said:
I Suppose one has to ask when the next crisis/black swan event will happen because looking at this graph it appears to fall/Correct below the average when a crisis appears?....Please correct me if my observation is wrong!
Click to expand...
which black swan , it seems they have formed the mother-of-all-discussion meetings , while circling way above the plebs , maybe they are anointing a divine black swan to over-see the procession .

there WILL be a crash , there WILL be rescue packages , and very likely a cascade of negative consequences after that , the questions are when , and how bad ( and how many attempts to rescue each drop )
 
When i look at the Graph all i see is the carona virus.....GFC & whatever happened in 95, that's what i mean by black swan/ crisis event
 
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