Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

A Sure Thing?

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For most of us there can never be a sure thing in the trading world unless you have inside information. I don't normally trade the ASX but this forum has made me pay more attention to it than I have in the past. This weekend I've had a look through the ASX stocks and come up with four that look like they may have potential to go higher and I'd like to see what others think. the four stocks are FMG, ILU, LYC and WDS.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Thanks @DaveTrade I hold 2, FMG and LYC and see reason to add, I see opportunity in ILU but not WDS.

I am interested in the discussion of supply. To quote from @tech/a from many years ago, without supply price will not rise. Supply imo is quite different from recent large volume.

gg
Click to expand...

Best get the quote accurate

Supply needs to be absorbed or withdrawn before price can rise .

Price rises when supply is chased higher
 
I'm holding WDS and ILU.

About the latter, I feel that it would be hard to argue against a long term low being in but for the short/medium term I'm not mounting any argument against a pullback. The $5.50 stands out as a resistance level and holders might lose $1.50 from there and still hold onto an optimistic scenario LT. It's historical earnings metrics are admirable I think, the more so when taking account of the DRR spin out that was distributed to shareholders. The make or break wild card is the Eneabba rare earths project - I've no idea if they can pull that off.

Held
Holding
No current plan to add

Weekly chart shows an obvious change of trend with downtrend resistance broken and positive high volume candles before last week. But last week showed a retreat from level resistance 5.50 - so what now for the next few weeks? I'm not guessing.

big (3).gif
 
DaveTrade said:
For most of us there can never be a sure thing in the trading world unless you have inside information. I don't normally trade the ASX but this forum has made me pay more attention to it than I have in the past. This weekend I've had a look through the ASX stocks and come up with four that look like they may have potential to go higher and I'd like to see what others think. the four stocks are FMG, ILU, LYC and WDS.
Click to expand...
i hold FMG , ILU and WDS

so i will comment on LYC first 🤔

LYC has had a volatile history but has found itself very much a unicorn in Western commodity markets , with some attempting a major trade war in China , LYC has an early mover moat in REE processing ( in the west ), so might attract take-over attempts by those with strategic manufacturing interests OR face extra competition from new government-subsidized rivals ( like say ILU )

in the scenario of short-term ( six months holds or less ) trades LYC should be near the top of the watch list and alert to major news/rumor

the gotchya with REE is not every REE is in high demand and not every REE resource has the same mix of REE elements , so a good background knowledge in this area is essential to decide if new news is relevant or a distraction to your desired company

ILU , i hold as a mineral sands play ( so i hold some DRR as well ) now while somebody in ILU saw the RE potential during their business operation , their RE resource is separated and stockpiled ( to so extent ) BUT it is the environmentally acceptable processing ( at a profit that is the difficult bit ) ( refer back to the history of LYC )

key news here will be extra government incentives ( relaxations of regulations ) and/or JV partners , or another spin-off of that part of the company into a separate business( stock )

FMG ( i hold )

crikey , i note Twiggy is easing back on some of his green initiatives , hopefully sticking with those offering long-term gains ( i still have my doubts , but Twiggy has kicked his fair share of goals , apart from nickel investments ) again another stock liable to be buffeted if this trade war gets real , but will you buy the dip or just rush to the side-line .... and will FMG be clever enough to build relationships with India to help replace slowing demand from South Korea


WDS ( i hold some bought as WPL , some courtesy of the BHP asset spin-off )

so will the looming trade war turn into a kinetic war ( real bombs and bullets ) , personally WDS needs to prove to me it can digest the BHP assets properly , but it seems intent on expanding first anyway , energy is a risky business and WDS has a history of over-promising and losing major JV partners , if this drops what price would you buy at ?

i have small 'accumulate ' orders in the market for extra FMG and ILU both well back from the current action , but i am mostly a long term holder of shares
 
divs4ever said:
personally WDS needs to prove to me it can digest the BHP assets properly , but it seems intent on expanding first anyway , energy is a risky business and WDS has a history of over-promising and losing major JV partners , if this drops what price would you buy at ?
Click to expand...
@divs4ever I would be looking to see if it turned up before reaching 24.7, but I would be evaluating it bar by bar and would want to see volume come back to confirm the upside direction. It's made a good start of a new uptrend but it needs to show me that this trend will continue.
1754204066734.png
 
DaveTrade said:
For most of us there can never be a sure thing in the trading world unless you have inside information. I don't normally trade the ASX but this forum has made me pay more attention to it than I have in the past. This weekend I've had a look through the ASX stocks and come up with four that look like they may have potential to go higher and I'd like to see what others think. the four stocks are FMG, ILU, LYC and WDS.
Click to expand...
G'Day Dave....As a Absolute Numpty when it comes to Trading i have been paper trading 2 Ingeneous Systems :cautious:

On The 15/7 when i started Paper Trading this Millionaire trading system:laugh:...Bingo!...LYC come up as a BUY at $10.00..."BULL STRATEGY"

As for the others, sorry my ingenious system has not Indicated any of these & the funny thing about my system is i expected the "BULL STRATEGY" to outperform the "BEAR STRATEGY", but it's been the opposite in that the BULL has traded 1 time & the BEAR has Traded 7 times based on my target of 10% NET ROI:)
 
ShareSuccess said:
G'Day Dave....As a Absolute Numpty when it comes to Trading i have been paper trading 2 Ingeneous Systems :cautious:

On The 15/7 when i started Paper Trading this Millionaire trading system:laugh:...Bingo!...LYC come up as a BUY at $10.00..."BULL STRATEGY"

As for the others, sorry my ingenious system has not Indicated any of these & the funny thing about my system is i expected the "BULL STRATEGY" to outperform the "BEAR STRATEGY", but it's been the opposite in that the BULL has traded 1 time & the BEAR has Traded 7 times based on my target of 10% NET ROI:)
Click to expand...
I think LYC is going to have a pullback now but waiting to see what it will do after pullback.
 
ShareSuccess said:
G'Day Dave....As a Absolute Numpty when it comes to Trading i have been paper trading 2 Ingeneous Systems :cautious:

On The 15/7 when i started Paper Trading this Millionaire trading system:laugh:...Bingo!...LYC come up as a BUY at $10.00..."BULL STRATEGY"

As for the others, sorry my ingenious system has not Indicated any of these & the funny thing about my system is i expected the "BULL STRATEGY" to outperform the "BEAR STRATEGY", but it's been the opposite in that the BULL has traded 1 time & the BEAR has Traded 7 times based on my target of 10% NET ROI:)
Click to expand...
Bingo! Another Successful paper trade :laugh: LYC Sell Indicator $11.13 hits today in the "BULL" strategy if i keep this up i'm going to retire a "PAPER"Millionaire:laugh:
 
DaveTrade said:
For most of us there can never be a sure thing in the trading world unless you have inside information. I don't normally trade the ASX but this forum has made me pay more attention to it than I have in the past. This weekend I've had a look through the ASX stocks and come up with four that look like they may have potential to go higher and I'd like to see what others think. the four stocks are FMG, ILU, LYC and WDS.
Click to expand...
Weekly update on my picks. All four would have a status of hold.
 
DaveTrade said:
Weekly update on my picks. All four would have a status of hold.
Click to expand...
This weekend I still have my four stocks on hold. As I said in my initial post when I picked these four, I haven't really paid much attention to the ASX stocks in the past, in fact I don't normally hold trades for long periods. This is a test for me, I'm looking at all the decisions that I make along the way to see if they have real value. I want feedback from the market to decide what I will or won't do in the future. I'm not actually trading these stocks, it's just a test run to get feedback, I just thought if I documented them here then I couldn't cheat. I do have a number of stock and option trades open in the NYSE but these are my usual shorter term trades.
 

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