Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CY2025 XAO Prediction competition

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I noticed the XAO has not closed below the 2ATR since the 10th April until today. Today it also closed below the 3 & 4 ATR, so a decent move.
Also on this chart is @peter2's 4 stage MACD which I keep an eye on.

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peter2 said:
I wouldn't call the MACD an indicator of sentiment but it does a respectable job as a momentum indicator. The MACD can turn down while prices are going up (generally they're going up slowly ie. momentum has slowed) and the MACD can turn up while prices are going lower.

I like the MACD especially the divergence signals as a warning indicator. The appeal of the MACD for me is that there are two lines. The MACD and a signal line. This creates nice objective crossovers. The MACD also has a horizontal line at zero. Using this, one can segment the MACD into four stages.
(i) MACD crosses up, but below zero - cautiously bullish, start investing
(ii) MACD bullish and above zero - fully bullish - be fully invested
(iii) MACD bearish but above zero - cautiously bearish - reduce portfolio heat
(iv)MACD bearish and below zero - fully bearish - minimal portfolio heat or none.

If you prefer the objectiveness of two line crossovers then two MAs will do what you want with less whipsawing than a MACD. One can tune the two MA lines to suit your risk tolerance.

Try as we might, we will never produce something that works well all of the time. The corona virus selloff in 2020 was just too swift for any combination of indicators on weekly charts. All the genuine trend traders must accept that there will be times when they have to cop a 20% draw down.
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qldfrog said:
xao 9,140.50 so Mr Logique2 is the winner of the week
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this is a bit like sideshow alley, then, M Frog, where "every child wins a prize" ... or adult in this case. ha ha

as usual it seemed to take a month to build, only to lose most in a few days

Screenshot_20250907_080152_CommSec~2.jpg
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right on the money for @Logique2 , and tantalisingly close for others

Dona Ferentes909390679099
TimeISmoney913391009133
Logique2914091349166
1 SLOT?91679199
rcw1920092009233
 
I still believe it to be dreadfully unfair that myself and @divs4ever because we chose the eventual winning number never appear on charts nor are never considered possible winners of the comp.
( over 10,000 )

Yez are a mob of

GIRLS ... "It's over 3000 so now Polly is going to win, ooooh it's 7234 Sally is a winner.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
GIRLS ... "It's over 3000 so now Polly is going to win, ooooh it's 7234 Sally is a winner".
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"Tell me not, in mournful numbers,
Life is but an empty dream!
For the soul is dead that slumbers,
And things are not what they seem.

"Lives of great men* all remind us
We can make our lives sublime,
And, departing, leave behind us
Footprints on the sands of time.

"Footprints, that perhaps another,
Sailing o’er life’s solemn main,
A forlorn and shipwrecked brother,
Seeing, shall take heart again."

*modern use of men includes women, and girls
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I still believe it to be dreadfully unfair that myself and @divs4ever because we chose the eventual winning number never appear on charts nor are never considered possible winners of the comp.
( over 10,000 )

Yez are a mob of

GIRLS ... "It's over 3000 so now Polly is going to win, ooooh it's 7234 Sally is a winner.

gg
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I don't think today's movement in the XAO is going to make much difference to this chart so I'll post it now just for @Garpal Gumnut, @divs4ever and @Sean K. 😉

I had to change a few setting and take the chart out to 15 years to fit these 3 in.
My apologies to the rest of the entries for making it impossible to see the latest action. :rolleyes: Hopefully ASIC won't come knocking. 😇

1757634652630.png
 
debtfree said:
I don't think today's movement in the XAO is going to make much difference to this chart so I'll post it now just for @Garpal Gumnut, @divs4ever and @Sean K. 😉
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debtfree said:
for making it impossible to see the latest action. :rolleyes: Hopefully ASIC won't come knocking. 😇

View attachment 208302
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On behalf of "US THREE" I would not like to make an apology to the rest of the competitors who monthly fall by the wayside as the All Ords creeps slowly but surely towards our picks. @Sean K @divs4ever and @Garpal Gumnut .

I would like though to thank you @debtfree for the magnificent effort to include us outliers.

Perhaps to make it easier go back to the old chart and just write an addendum saying that "the probable winners naming US THREE do not yet appear on the chart" Onwards and upwards.

gg
 
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