IPG - IPD Group

[divs4ever]

I wrote this yesterday straight after I bought @ 3.03 but forgot to hit the post reply button:

Now I still think I'll wait

Held
Accumulate

having bought a few , i will reassess a target price for a few more cheaper

i doubt this will be the multi-bagger SXE has been for me , but there will be a need for electrical infrastructure going forward it should come good within a reasonable time-frame ( and i would rather be in this sector than roads or airports )

i still think the G7 part of the global economy is a mess , but there aren't many good income-producing assets left at a reasonable price ( the gold-mining stocks .. are half-way down the track )

 

[finicky]

I'm slowly reading the Bell Potter preso from 27 May.
Chartwise I'm still having doubts as it is a steep descent and I see no candlestick encouragement to tack on more. It's a low volume stock as MM mentions, so they can be more erratic.

 

[finicky]

Don't know how I missed this but I was watching Greg Canavan's* video update of his portfolio recommendations this morning and I see that he bought IPG on 09 April. Obviously this is now at a loss, down -19%, but he is maintaining a buy on it at present with an initial 2% weighting target. He said he has an interview scheduled today with their investor relations guy and will report back to subscribers this week. The basic question he'll be asking around is whether this malaise is company specific or from the macro side. Because he says there has lately been a lack of investment capital commitment across the economy. He is expecting to see this reflected in GDP figures to be released today. But he says, "My feeling is this 'cou!d be' a buying opportunity"
* Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Broadly he's seeing on the charts a likely keeling over of U.S indices and the ASX 200 backed by the well recognised high U.S p/e valuations and sensitivity to Trump's tariff dynamics. This is short term musings, he's not yet calling a crash.

 

[divs4ever]

I'm slowly reading the Bell Potter preso from 27 May.
Chartwise I'm still having doubts as it is a steep descent and I see no candlestick encouragement to tack on more. It's a low volume stock as MM mentions, so they can be more erratic.

low volume is not a hindrance to me , i usually do small buys

what i look for is low risk of failure , now in theory this should get a sustainable amount of work

and erratic ( and lower ) works for me , i can happily slowly accumulate as long as i am happy with the way the company is traveling

BTW i half expect large economic shocks , but electrical infrastructure will be needed for 'the greater digitization plan ' ( and AI the potential bonus )

this to me is a substitute to the more popular roads/railways/airports stocks ( ie a slow and steady div. payer )

 

[divs4ever]

Broadly he's seeing on the charts a likely keeling over of U.S indices and the ASX 200 backed by the well recognised high U.S p/e valuations and sensitivity to Trump's tariff dynamics. This is short term musings, he's not yet calling a crash.

well unless there is an irrational melt-up , the main tailwind will be the trend to greater digitization ( and electricity need/consumption )

 

[galumay]

Its a reasonable business, it should do Ok in the long term. As I have said before, I hold SXE in this sector which is a similar quality business, but having been around a lot longer its easier to see the business quality. Probably the only reservation I have with IPG is how recently it listed so the fundamentals of the business are harder to assess.

 

[finicky]

That's the first encouraging candle on a daily scale. It's close enough to a bullish 'piercing line' reversal candle and it's on improved volume.
I'll be spewing if you picked the bottom again @divs4ever, just as I dropped off the buying queue.
.
AI Overview

The Bullish Piercing Line is a candlestick pattern that signals a potential bullish reversal after a downtrend. It consists of two candlesticks: a long bearish candle followed by a long bullish candle that opens below the first candle's close and closes above its midpoint. This pattern suggests that after an initial drop in price, buyers have stepped in and are strong enough to push the price back up, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

 

[finicky]

As I have said before, I hold SXE in this sector which is a similar quality business

Yes, you have said that before .. (runs away)

 

[divs4ever]

That's the first encouraging candle on a daily scale. It's close enough to a bullish 'piercing line' reversal candle and it's on improved volume.
I'll be spewing if you picked the bottom again @divs4ever, just as I dropped off the buying queue.
.
AI Overview

View attachment 200927
The Bullish Piercing Line is a candlestick pattern that signals a potential bullish reversal after a downtrend. It consists of two candlesticks: a long bearish candle followed by a long bullish candle that opens below the first candle's close and closes above its midpoint. This pattern suggests that after an initial drop in price, buyers have stepped in and are strong enough to push the price back up, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

View attachment 200928

i am just delighted i got a full order , not 3 , 4 or 19 shares ( which has happened elsewhere )

it hurts when your brokerage costs more than your part-filled order ( and the order expires part-filled )

on one epic order it took 4 months to fill !! ( and it was NOT a big order )

 

[finicky]

IPD Lowers FY2025 Earnings Guidance
Share Advisor Investing Team | June 2, 2025

ASX:IPG

"IPD Group (ASX:IPG) has released updated FY2025 earnings guidance, flagging a near-term dip in profitability despite continued growth in revenue and its order backlog.

Operating earnings before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are forecast to reach $45.7 million to $46.3 million, down 7.6% at the midpoint compared to the FY2024 pro forma figure.

Operating earnings (EBIT) are expected to land between $38.6 million and $39.2 million, down 9% at the midpoint from the FY2024 pro forma figure.

The main driver behind the lower earnings guidance is a combination of softer margins and ongoing short-term challenges in key end-markets. While core IPD, CMI’s Minto Plugs, and EX Engineering divisions are all forecast to grow revenue by 4.9%, 5.2% and 4.6% respectively, two businesses – CMI’s Cables and Addelec – are expected to experience year-over-year revenue declines of 7.6% and 12.6%. This reflects industry-wide softness in commercial construction as well as some project delays.

What We Took From The Announcement
It’s never ideal to see earnings downgrades from companies you’re invested in, so this update was disappointing for shareholders.

Still, we think there are reasons to stay positive. IPD’s core business remains resilient, full-year revenue is expected to keep growing, and its order backlog stands strong at an elevated $91.5 million. The lower earnings outlook mainly reflects margin pressure as the company transitions to larger, more complex orders and navigates ongoing weakness in the commercial construction sector, which accounts for about one-third of IPD’s total revenue.

Additionally, IPD’s fastest-growing segment – data centre revenue – increased 25% over the past year, highlighting healthy demand linked to electrification and digital infrastructure trends. Operating expenses as a share of revenue have also improved following recent investments, and cash flow generation remains strong – so much so that the Board approved a further $10 million in debt repayment, leaving the business in a net cash position.

The Share Advisor Team’s View
While this update signals a setback in the near term, we remain positive on IPD’s long-term outlook, and our thesis remains unchanged. IPD is well-managed and positioned to continue delivering steady growth as infrastructure and energy requirements in Australia evolve. At roughly 12 times trailing earnings, its valuation already reflects much of the short-term headwinds, offering compelling upside as order momentum builds and margin pressures eventually ease.

IPD Group remains a Buy on our scorecard."

 

[divs4ever]

IPD Lowers FY2025 Earnings Guidance
Share Advisor Investing Team | June 2, 2025

ASX:IPG

"IPD Group (ASX:IPG) has released updated FY2025 earnings guidance, flagging a near-term dip in profitability despite continued growth in revenue and its order backlog.

Operating earnings before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are forecast to reach $45.7 million to $46.3 million, down 7.6% at the midpoint compared to the FY2024 pro forma figure.

Operating earnings (EBIT) are expected to land between $38.6 million and $39.2 million, down 9% at the midpoint from the FY2024 pro forma figure.

The main driver behind the lower earnings guidance is a combination of softer margins and ongoing short-term challenges in key end-markets. While core IPD, CMI’s Minto Plugs, and EX Engineering divisions are all forecast to grow revenue by 4.9%, 5.2% and 4.6% respectively, two businesses – CMI’s Cables and Addelec – are expected to experience year-over-year revenue declines of 7.6% and 12.6%. This reflects industry-wide softness in commercial construction as well as some project delays.

What We Took From The Announcement
It’s never ideal to see earnings downgrades from companies you’re invested in, so this update was disappointing for shareholders.

Still, we think there are reasons to stay positive. IPD’s core business remains resilient, full-year revenue is expected to keep growing, and its order backlog stands strong at an elevated $91.5 million. The lower earnings outlook mainly reflects margin pressure as the company transitions to larger, more complex orders and navigates ongoing weakness in the commercial construction sector, which accounts for about one-third of IPD’s total revenue.

Additionally, IPD’s fastest-growing segment – data centre revenue – increased 25% over the past year, highlighting healthy demand linked to electrification and digital infrastructure trends. Operating expenses as a share of revenue have also improved following recent investments, and cash flow generation remains strong – so much so that the Board approved a further $10 million in debt repayment, leaving the business in a net cash position.

The Share Advisor Team’s View
While this update signals a setback in the near term, we remain positive on IPD’s long-term outlook, and our thesis remains unchanged. IPD is well-managed and positioned to continue delivering steady growth as infrastructure and energy requirements in Australia evolve. At roughly 12 times trailing earnings, its valuation already reflects much of the short-term headwinds, offering compelling upside as order momentum builds and margin pressures eventually ease.

IPD Group remains a Buy on our scorecard."

softer margins/rising costs should be half-expected across the entire market

i am still not sold on the 'data centre hype/AI hype , somebody ( apart from the Chinese ) will realize that software bloat , and hardware connectivity , can be rectified for a major boost without demanding a zillion nuclear reactors to power hectares of metal boxes

am looking at this business to be a profitable resillient business NOT a multi-bagger , and add each time the optimists are suitably disappointed

IMO reducing debt is a good move ( way better than buying back shares )

i hold IPG ( a very recent buy )

 

[galumay]

So given the Share Advisor puff piece, its a hard sell?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Like @finicky, I looked at this in depth recently, in comparison to SXE, as he found, it shares similar metrics. A good little business, but I think no meaningful difference in quality to SXE and I already hold a large position there at a much lower cost base. So it was a pass from me in the end. Definitely the sort of company I like to find though.

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[Dona Ferentes]

Yes, you have said that before .. (runs away)

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[finicky]

Everyone likes to dump on Share Advisor but they picked PME when it was in its infancy almost.

 

[divs4ever]

So given the Share Advisor puff piece, its a hard sell?

how hard ?

i can scrounge some extra cash for at least another smallish parcel , if the price is low

 

[galumay]

Everyone likes to dump on Share Advisor but they picked PME when it was in its infancy almost.

Like all stock promoters, every dog has its day.

 

[divs4ever]

Like all stock promoters, every dog has its day.

indeed touting PME when under $1 ( or even at $1 ) racks up a fair tally to offset your losers , that is 200 losing picks covered , surely even an average tipster can get more than 1 in 100 right

 

[finicky]

Suck on this:

 

[divs4ever]

Suck on this:

View attachment 201037

yep , when tipping ( or investing ) for the long term , those multi-baggers wipe out several flops , because you can ( normally ) lose only 100% of the investment cash .

but of course , the trick is to pick SOME mult-baggers and the big ones will embed your reputation in the minds of many .