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Bitcoin Price - Where is it heading?

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Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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I had been dismissive of Bitcoin for many years, but no more. The advantages of peer to peer exchange are becoming apparent particularly with AI. Tokens will predominate in future instead of mixed portfolios and Bitcoin with a limit on supply will predominate in that environment.

Rather like gold does in the traditional money space. This is a nice 6 mo. bullish chart.


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gg
 
XRP is the one to watch if you want to make a tokenisation play.

(yes I have some)
 
Dona Ferentes said:
sell me that story, o please. 🙏
Click to expand...
O key doh key.

Say you have a portfolio manager or a large super fund which has hundreds or thousands of members each with their own ideas on what stocks, property or bonds should be held in an individual or a fund portfolio. Weekly there would be thousands of individual changes in perception leading to action by each player.

This perforce would involve many thousands of individual transactions, rebalancing and finalisations and that it without taking fees and currency fluctuations in to account.

In comes AI and Tokens. The fund might say we need to make between 6% and 8% gain net of fees in our portfolio per annum. It adjusts for the stayers, those who set and forget, and the changers who switch frequently.

The stayers e.g instruct the fund to deliver 5.5% pa and the switchers instead of costing the fund money in manpower and fees continuously switching instead are tokenised to make individual transactions within the overall health of the fund i.e. making a profit.

There would be little human effort involved with the usual disclaimers saying that the bots cannot guarantee a profit. So property transactions, buying and selling of stock and smaller funds/etf's is all done via tokens within tokens within tokens. It al dribbles down to the dribblers at the end of the year who with one click of a mouse can see how much of their token containing some or all of the above has performed.

Bitcoin sits at the top as an immutable store of value for when everyone wants to get out of the lift all at once as gold does now for traditional money.

gg
 
Bitcoin continues it's march, a slight retracement today.

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As does VBTC in $AUD

vbtc.png

gg
 
Well, BTC is falling back a bit. That descending triangle from the high is a bit of a worry. I'm still holding my VBTC and will ride out any retracement.

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gg
 
STACKED​
Bitcoin is part of a new age corporate treasury toolkit that’s moved beyond numbers into a belief system embedded in code. But stacking sats comes with volatility – the kind you can’t always explain in quarterly reports.
Remember when corporate treasuries were built on cash, bonds, and a CFO’s dream of steady yield? Not anymore. A number of companies are swapping stable alternatives for Bitcoin. Leading the charge is Strategy ($MSTR), holding US$63.2b BTC - close to 3% of all BTC in circulation.

Strategy’s so-called Bitcoin Treasury playbook has helped offset declining revenue from its legacy software business. Today $MSTR trades like a Bitcoin ETF with its stock price rising whenever BTC rallies. But there’s a catch. Recognising non-cash impairment charges tied to the digital asset leads to a wild swing in net income – from +86.5% in 2023 to -1161% more recently.

That hasn’t deterred Japanese firm Metaplanet ($MTPLF) from replicating Strategy’s strategy. The budget hotel operator is now the ninth-largest public holder of BTC with a US$946m stash. Metaplanet timed its entry well. It posted the strongest financial results in its 20-year history in Q1. Bitcoin income accounted for 88% of its quarterly revenue.

Both Strategy and Metaplanet use BTC Yield - the growth in Bitcoin per diluted share - to measure treasury performance. Based on share price alone, it seems to be working for them, although it’s as much a last-ditch effort to turn around BAU failures.

The same can’t be said for GameStop ($GME). They raised US$4b from issuing new shares during ‘meme stock’ surges, earning roughly US$100m a year in interest income from that cash pile. But crypto may be where investors draw the line as $GME declined after announcing a US$513m BTC buy.

Strategy, Metaplanet and GameStop are more extreme examples of a Bitcoin-focused treasuries pivot. But firms with more modest allocations have also seen a payoff. Tesla ($TSLA) has around 3% of its cash reserves in Bitcoin, which boosted Q4 net income by $US600m.

There's now 130 public companies who hold more Bitcoin than ETF issuers or funds. But as Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick points out, roughly half those firms will be underwater if Bitcoin falls below US$90,000.

Bitcoin treasuries remain a radical approach. Advocates call it diversification. Critics say Bitcoin is a high risk asset that has no place in a treasury. Shareholders at Amazon ($AMZN), Microsoft ($MSFT) and Meta ($META) seem to agree. They’ve issued hard passes on proposals to set up a Bitcoin reserve.

It may not fix broken business models, but Bitcoin is proving one thing: in today's markets, narrative is almost as valuable as net income.

The Wrap.....Stake
 
Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 11.52.08 AM.png


To date the correct strategy re. BTC has been to buy and hold.

The advent of the BTC ETF's, BTC treasury companies, who hold billions of dollars of BTC have definitely pushed BTC price higher. As stated in the article, that price increase drives the 'earnings' used very loosely.

When no new BTC are mined, what drives the price higher? That is to say, buy and hold no longer works. You need new supply to make buy and hold actually work when there are no earnings.

The first to sell garners the maximum profit.

In a tsunami of selling, price falls very quickly, forcing further selling, particularly if you have outstanding debt used to purchase BTC.


How is gold different?

So gold is used as a reserve asset currently.

This means that in cross border trading, import/export surplus/deficits net net can be settled in gold. In theory, BTC could act in the same way. The issue is that gold already trades this way and the market price is already a function of that use (and in fact the POG has been suppressed for 50yrs). BTC would need to go through a price discovery process for this to happen (BTC has been hyped for 15yrs).

It is very probable that the price so discovered for BTC would be lower. The reason being in BTC we have had essentially a one way market, particularly recently with BTC ETF's and BTC Treasury companies.

An issue to BTC being used as a reserve asset however is the issue of finite supply. Gold increases at a rate of about 2%/annum from new gold mined etc. This is important as it reduces the speculative froth in times of rampant speculation.

BTC does not have this function. What it does have is electronic divisibility. 1/10, 1/1000, 1/100000000, etc. Possibly this works.

With the increase of AI, quantum computing, what makes you think the encryption is safe for all-time? That it cannot be hacked? It's being hacked already. This is a problem that will only deteriorate.

First mover advantage goes to gold. Gold is already the sovereign nation's choice for reserve asset etc. VHS, betamax, one succeeded one disappeared. MSFT, Netscape. The list is endless.


Interesting.


jog on
duc
 
Cryptocurrency blockchains are generally public ledgers that record and verify all transactions in a blockchain network. Everyone can see transactions, the pseudonymous addresses involved, and the amount transferred. However, these public ledgers do not allow anyone to access them and submit or change entries; this is done automatically by scripts, programming, encryption techniques, and an automated transaction validation process.

How Is a Blockchain Secured?​

Security is addressed in a blockchain through cryptographic techniques and consensus mechanics. Blockchains use encryption to encode transaction information and include the data from previous blocks in each following block. The entire ledger is chained together through encrypted data. Each newly created block makes it more secure.

An existing blockchain, therefore, cannot be hacked in the traditional sense of "being hacked," where malicious code is introduced into the chain or someone "hacks" into the network with brute force and begins making changes or asserting control.

How Can a Blockchain Be Attacked?​

An attacker—or group of attackers—could take over a blockchain by controlling a majority of the blockchain's computational power, called its hashrate. If they own more than 50% of the hashrate, they can introduce an altered blockchain in what is called a 51% attack. This allows them to make changes to transactions that were not confirmed by the blockchain before they took over. Transactions—at least on the Bitcoin blockchain—are generally secure after one confirmation. However, they aren't considered wholly confirmed and immutable until six confirmations have been completed.

For instance, if you transferred 1 BTC to a friend, the transaction would be recorded and confirmed in one block—this is the first confirmation. That block's data is recorded into the next block, confirmed, and the block is closed—this is the second confirmation. This must happen four more times for a transaction to be considered immutable (on the Bitcoin blockchain). Transactions that have not been processed can be reversed in a 51% attack.

The attackers would then be free to use the tokens used in transactions that the network has not confirmed. They can transfer the coins to anonymous addresses, and the altered blockchain would act however they had programmed it to work.1

IMPORTANT​

Blockchains with smaller numbers of participants have been attacked in this manner, but larger networks—such as Bitcoin and Ethereum—make it nearly impossible to successfully attack due to the costs involved in acquiring 51% of the hashrate (BTC) or staked crypto (ETH).

Where Cryptocurrency Hacks Happen​

Cryptocurrency ownership is essentially tied to data on a blockchain, a virtual token, and keys. Each token is assigned a private key, which is held by the owner or custodian appointed by the owner.

Wallet Hacks​

Private keys and the way they are stored are two of the primary weaknesses in cryptocurrency and blockchain. There is a saying in the cryptocurrency industry:

Not your keys, not your coin.
Click to expand...

This saying implies that no matter the circumstances, if you don't control the keys to your crypto, you can't control what happens to it. Allowing someone else to store your keys for you, referred to as a custodial relationship between key owner and key holder, gives that entity, or whoever might have the keys, control of your cryptocurrency.

FAST FACT​

A private key can theoretically be decrypted. However, one key is an encrypted number with 2256 possibilities (equal to 115 quattuorvigintillion possibilities—a quattuorvigintillion is a 1 followed by 75 zeros). It would take centuries, possibly millennia, to brute force the encryption with current technology.

This is where many hacks and thefts occur—a wallet, where private keys are stored. All private keys are stored in wallets, which are software applications installed on mobile devices and computers.

Electronic and software versions on wallets are either connected to the internet (hot) or not connected (cold). Cryptocurrency exchanges generally offer hot and cold storage methods for their users; these methods are custodial because they hold your keys for you.

Applications (software) and devices can be hacked. Because private keys are stored in applications and device wallets, hackers can access them and steal your cryptocurrency.

Exchange Hacks​

No matter what a custodial key holder tells you or what level of security they advertise, they are a weak spot. Exchanges generally hold cryptocurrency in reserve for liquidity and the private keys for many of their customers. This makes them an attractive target for hackers.

If you don't store your private keys on an exchange, they cannot be accessed, and your cryptocurrency is safe—at least from an exchange hack.

FAST FACT​

Reputable exchanges can store your keys for you in what is called "deep cold storage." These are generally offline data storage units with enterprise security, and some—like Gemini—even offer the equivalent of insurance if your cryptocurrency is stolen as a result of a direct hack or security breach of their systems.2

Other Types of Theft​

Everyone hears about the large exchange hacks on the news, but what isn't often mentioned is the techniques other than hacking used to steal cryptocurrency.

Scams have always been a method used by thieves. However, it seems in 2023, romance scams were among the biggest techniques used by them to acquire crypto. In these scams, thieves pose as romantic possibilities until a target is comfortable, and then begin a quest to convince their unsuspecting love interest that they urgently need cryptocurrency to fund an emergency.

Ransomware, once on the decline regarding cryptocurrency, began gaining traction in 2023 as well. This is a category of techniques—thieves might encrypt files or data and demand cryptocurrency, or resort to intimidation tactics unless they are paid.3

How to Secure Your Cryptocurrency​

You can take several easy steps to keep your cryptocurrency from being stolen. The critical factors are understanding how your keys are stored, how you and others can access them, and what you can do to make them inaccessible.

As mentioned, wallets are hot, cold, custodial, or non-custodial. The least secure wallets are any hot wallet—one that has a connection to another device or the internet. For security purposes, you should never store your keys on a device that has a connection that is always on or accessible. If it has a connection and an application is used to access your keys, it can be hacked.

Contrary to advertising and cryptocurrency wallet reviews, you don't need a commercially manufactured device to act as a wallet—but these devices are designed specifically for cryptocurrency key security.

A USB thumb drive with encryption can also work as cold storage. However, USB connections can degrade over time; additionally, once a cold storage device is connected to a computer or other connected device, it becomes hot storage until it is disconnected.

FAST FACT​

There is no 100% secure, non-degradable, long-lasting key storage method. However, consider that many people fall victim to hackers and scammers and lose money from their bank accounts because personal information is used to access them. Safeguarding private keys is no different than protecting your personally identifiable information.

The most secure wallets are non-custodial cold wallets. These can range from a piece of paper with the keys written on it in a safe to a device that uses passkeys and extra encryption. Paper wallets should only be used as a temporary measure because they are easily damaged.

You'll find many products that offer security and convenience for your Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, but the best way to ensure your crypto is safe from hackers and thieves is to remember some simple rules:

  • Don't store your keys in the wallet on your mobile device or any other device that has a connection to the internet.
  • Your private keys should always be held in cold storage.
  • Don't let someone else store your keys for you unless you're comfortable with the risks.
  • If you want to use your cryptocurrency, only transfer the keys you need to your hot wallet, conduct your transaction, then remove them from the hot wallet immediately.
  • Keep your cold storage method in a secure, humidity-controlled environment without a wired or wireless connection.
  • Check on your devices periodically to ensure they're not degrading. If they are, transfer your keys to a new storage device.
  • Never share your private keys with anyone else.
  • Keep current backups of your keys.

And remember, "not your keys, not your crypto."

What Crypto Platform Was Hacked?​

There have been several 51% attacks on cryptocurrency blockchains like Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV), Bitcoin Gold (BTG), and Ethereum Classic (ETC). More recently, the now-bankrupt exchange FTX was hacked shortly after declaring bankruptcy in November 2022.

What Is a Crypto Hack?​

A crypto hack is one of several forms of theft that results in cryptocurrency being stolen.

Has Bitcoin Been Hacked Yet?​

There are no reports of Bitcoin's blockchain and network being hacked as of May 11, 2024. However, service providers, wallets, and applications are all vulnerable and have been hacked.

The Bottom Line​

Cryptocurrency is still relatively new as far as payment methods and currency go. Most of them are convertible, meaning they have a fiat value. This makes them a target for thieves. The techniques used in cryptocurrency blockchains make them virtually unhackable if the networks are powerful enough to outpace hackers. Smaller networks are more susceptible to network takeovers.

Cryptocurrency thieves' primary target is wallets, where private keys are stored. Wallets can be accessed by hackers using various techniques and can even be locked by ransomware. With that in mind, it's essential to make sure your private keys are stored offline and only transferred to your connected wallet when you're going to use them. Additionally, using wallets from a reputable company or exchange might offer a little extra security. These companies need to maintain their reputations, so they will ensure their software is up to date and has no malicious code written into it.

From:https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/032615/can-bitcoin-be-hacked.asp


So this is today.

Quantum computing is already on its way. What was safe today, may become highly vulnerable going forward. Of course that applies to bank accounts also.

But you have a choice (at the moment at least) to hold analog cash. LOL.

Gold can also be held as physical.


jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:

Has Bitcoin Been Hacked Yet?​

There are no reports of Bitcoin's blockchain and network being hacked as of May 11, 2024. However, service providers, wallets, and applications are all vulnerable and have been hacked.
Click to expand...

Because it can't be hacked.
 
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