Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

This is the argument for Trump's move on tariffs. I still think he's a moron, but even morons can be correct once in a while.

View attachment plan.mp4

gg

 

[divs4ever]

You're panicking Divsie, pure panic. @divs4ever .

gg

if i am panicking the rest of you should already be locked in your bunkers

i have spent half my life hearing salesmen, politicians , conmen and preachers

Jesus hasn't arrived , and the current math doesn't calculate some must contain some fraud

 

[Dona Ferentes]

...
This would further wedge China, to having to trade with the affiliated BRICS countries, to move the oversupply of inventory for less money.
Interesting times.

and not deal with US$, but Yuan ..
gold ?
Sell US Treasuries ?
Send bond yields where ?

 

[DannyB0000]

Companies like Walmart and Apple are going to be stuffed with these tariff escalations. Apple makes most of its devices in China so iPhone 16 is going to be a high end luxury item. Imagine what would happen if it was Australia vs China instead with 104% tariffs, Kmart, Big W and Target would all be very stuffed with their prices.

 

[rcw1]

if i am panicking the rest of you should already be locked in your bunkers

i have spent half my life hearing salesmen, politicians , conmen and preachers

Jesus hasn't arrived , and the current math doesn't calculate some must contain some fraud

rum bloke

 

[divs4ever]

If China did that, it would definitely accelerate the whole process, the U.S as per Musk's quote, would probably open a free trade agreement with the U.K and Europe.
This would further wedge China, to having to trade with the affiliated BRICS countries, to move the oversupply of inventory for less money.
Interesting times.

am not so sure they would focus on UK/EU i think they would focus on South America and Africa and grab future market share from the West ( as they West won't be able to compete on price ) and even modest quality goods would be a big advancement in those nations

i also expect China to veer towards ( slightly ) lower production of goods but ramp up the quality similar to what Japan did in the 1990's

 

[sptrawler]

and not deal with US$, but Yuan ..
gold ?
Sell US Treasuries ?
Send bond yields where ?

am not so sure they would focus on UK/EU i think they would focus on South America and Africa and grab future market share from the West ( as they West won't be able to compete on price ) and even modest quality goods would be a big advancement in those nations

i also expect China to veer towards ( slightly ) lower production of goods but ramp up the quality similar to what Japan did in the 1990's

It will certainly accelerate an outcome.

 

[divs4ever]

Companies like Walmart and Apple are going to be stuffed with these tariff escalations. Apple makes most of its devices in China so iPhone 16 is going to be a high end luxury item. Imagine what would happen if it was Australia vs China instead with 104% tariffs, Kmart, Big W and Target would all be very stuffed with their prices.

am already looking at potential replacements for the iPhone , it doesn't have the features i want and price will have little to do with my choice .

let someone else buy the next iPhone

 

[TimeISmoney]

Another very red night. Another complete lack of surprise.

Big money is playing with the market, see it go higher at the start last night, most stocks were in the green in the US.

The news on Trump's 50% tariffs was already out, it's big money sucking money out of the markets.

With Trump being so irrational and unpredictable, trying to pick the bottom is a dangerous game at this stage.

I think it's a live or die game with that fool. In another words, if he can't win the tariff war he will try to decimate economies in retaliation.

Remember, his persona is to bankrupt himself to get out of paying people.

I'd be very cautious jumping in at this stage, but still some bargains to be had, my goldies are holding up well.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

if i am panicking the rest of you should already be locked in your bunkers

i have spent half my life hearing salesmen, politicians , conmen and preachers

what a unique experience / person

 

[farmerge]

And Tr

Dow was a 1000 points up before I went to bed. Stunning turn around. China will match the Americans with 104% tariffs on them and the escalation will continue. See who blinks first.

I can't see Mr Chinaman even thinking about blinking.
He will be waiting forever smiling at the hurt the US of A peasantry will be suffering in the long term.

 

[farmerge]

what a unique experience / person

And what about us also, some are preachers of doom and gloom, others looking for a bargain or three.
Though I did go against the "Bloke in the Mirror" and put in an order for CHN this morning

 

[over9k]

Big money is playing with the market, see it go higher at the start last night, most stocks were in the green in the US.

The news on Trump's 50% tariffs was already out, it's big money sucking money out of the markets.

With Trump being so irrational and unpredictable, trying to pick the bottom is a dangerous game at this stage.

I think it's a live or die game with that fool. In another words, if he can't win the tariff war he will try to decimate economies in retaliation.

Remember, his persona is to bankrupt himself to get out of paying people.

I'd be very cautious jumping in at this stage, but still some bargains to be had, my goldies are holding up well.

Precisely. Just imagine yourself arguing with a toddler and that's the position everyone else are in. Until they realise this fact, things are only going to get worse.

You can't reason with an unreasonable person.


My drip-fed buys I set up to get progressively larger the lower they got for a reason

 

[JohnDe]

I can't see Mr Chinaman even thinking about blinking.
He will be waiting forever smiling at the hurt the US of A peasantry will be suffering in the long term.

Don't worry, he is thinking about it.

The ABC news this morning showed a graph on US exports to China in 2024 $160B, and China exports to the US $500B

That is higher than 2023 -

United States (USA) and China (CHN) Trade | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Find the latest trade data and tariffs between United States and China.

oec.world

 

[over9k]

bond yields

Not necessarily correlated.

Considering how hard the USD has run and how much oil has dumped, inflation's likely to actually come in quite low. I just don't see the tariffs increasing prices enough to offset the USD increase/oil decrease.

Powell even gave an interview the day of the first (or was it 2nd?) big announcement saying he doesn't actually expect the fed to have to move rates much.

 

[Craton]

Just my

Trump, without firing a shot, certainly knows how to declare war (on everyone) and I'm sure he's quite chuffed that his pen, is mightier than any sword.

I'd also hazzard a guess that under the tariff guise, there are many motives and moves to get the US of A out of the debt hole it is in. I've seen/heard it said that probably the main play is to get the Fed. to lower interest rates, thus allowing refinancing the trillions the good ol' US of A needs to repay. Isn't that straight out of Trump's property playbook?

Unfortunately for the rest of us, this tariff war doesn't appear to be a short term strategy. Getting US of A offshored businesess/manufacturing back onshore cannot and won't happen overnight. Am thinking that if I'm a wake up to this, so are the rest of us especially the markets.

I've also a suspicion that this tariff war just might give China the economic advantage much to the deteriment to the US of A.
Hence the renewed call to reclassify China as a developed country.

So much is in play that my only conclusion is, major upheavals and re-adjustments required all round.

I guess the one big plus for traders is the volatility. As Trump posted, "It's a great time to get rich!"

 

[DannyB0000]

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-temu-shein-de-minimis

Trump just tripled the levy on anything ordered through TEMU and Shein. 90%.

I prefer Amazon

 

[mullokintyre]

So what will the affect of the atriffs be on various countries.

One of the things to remember is that at 104% tariffs on China products that will be in effect from midnight,, the US revenue wil effectively be dollar for dollar.
There will obviouslly be some level of import replacement, but not immediately, and there are some products that will not attract tariffs..
So lets say the exports that attract tariffs halve to 270 billion a year.
Thats an extra 135 billion going into the treasury.
There seems to be no country that will escape the tariffs.
The problem is going to work out the percentage of imports that attract what level of tariff.
The US imported around 4.5 Trillion bucks in stuff last year.
If we assume an average of say 25% tariffs across the board, thats a cool 1.1 trillion bucks.
That is more than the treasury received in Income tax (965billion), and way more than they received in Corporate Taxes (144billion).
Both of these taxes could be completely eliminated and still have a small net gain.
These figures came from US Treasury and one of the figures quoted was Customs dutiies and tariffs for last year at 35billion.
Mick

 

[Craton]

You mean the richer are going to get even more rich in America ?

Via their machinations, don't they always regardless of all else?

 

[divs4ever]

I can't see Mr Chinaman even thinking about blinking.
He will be waiting forever smiling at the hurt the US of A peasantry will be suffering in the long term.

China will have SOME of their strategy totally planned and thought out , MAYBE even tried and tested with all those 'selected shutdowns ' during the virus saga .

now China might have taken some lessons on the EU sanctions on Russia ( let them hurt themselves )

but China DOES have some leverage , the US can be self-sufficent but not by the end of the month .. will they have time to be self-reliant before things get NASTY

the peasantry always get hurt , war , recession , inflation, trade wars , etc etc etc

but in previous times the peasantry were tougher ( and maybe more resourceful , like say the Prohibition era )