Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[divs4ever]

Can you apply a robot tax $0.10 per hour worked based on every watt of electricity consumes or something like that?

exactly !

and will that robot buy anything you produce or sell

i don't expect your factory robot to need joggers an Apple watch , smartphone or home mortgage , or even a bus ticket to go home at night ( that is all taxes you are unable to collect , on goods/services not used )

but that is the progress some ultra-wealthy are hoping for

 

[divs4ever]

What will happen when we start getting robots playing in all the major sports and there is zero need for athletes anymore?

well lots of athletes are only walking/running billboards now ( as far as the advertiser is concerned ) but think of the impact on over-priced medical services most of them will rarely be needed ( and the private hospitals )

for a consumer-based economy .. that is what economic suicide looks like

 

[The Triangle]

exactly !

and will that robot buy anything you produce or sell

i don't expect your factory robot to need joggers an Apple watch , smartphone or home mortgage , or even a bus ticket to go home at night ( that is all taxes you are unable to collect , on goods/services not used )

but that is the progress some ultra-wealthy are hoping for

The ultra wealthy and the media have spent years if not decades telling everyone that cheap junk goods from China is good for the economy. You can buy a $5 bucket a $1 t-shirt - and then have money left over to spend on what you really want. And that extra money will drive the American economy!!! Except I'm not convinced that has happened. Trump been saying that for 40 years as well. I'll be happy if Trump puts an end to the garbage like Temu, Amazon, K-Mart, Target, Walmart.

Too many people have been left behind. Too much money has flown out to $5 buckets and $1 shirts and taken jobs away from people who would have had a mortgage, bought apple watches, and bus tickets.

When I worked in Canada ages ago the Canadian radios (I think TVs too) had to have a certain % of Canadian music and content played. That is a tariff and no one complains. Garbage Canadian music gets prioritised over better popular music. Maybe Trump could also put in these kind of conditions on shops. If car manufacturers have to have lineups with XXX carbon emissions or whatever - then maybe shops should have to have XX% of American made goods for sale or face hefty taxes.

I think Trump will make a heap of deals and tariffs will be reduced, but I also think he's got a heap more little economic surprises ready for the markets.

If it turns out 10 years down the road all his kids are trillionaires - then we know it was all just a game to manipulate the market

 

[wayneL]

Buy Buy Buy... FFS BUUUUYYYYYY!!!

View attachment 196910

....aaaand Cramer is still the most reliable contrarian signal in the world

 

[TimeISmoney]

As for the bikes, suffice to say mere mention of the word brings up painful memories. Some things are better left in the 1980's - I'll stick to walking, driving or I'll catch the bus. Less painful that way.

Bring a bit of excitement to your life, mate. I'm around your age and still get the wheels off the ground.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Anyone esle think another drop in the markets is comming soon?

 

[divs4ever]

The ultra wealthy and the media have spent years if not decades telling everyone that cheap junk goods from China is good for the economy. You can buy a $5 bucket a $1 t-shirt - and then have money left over to spend on what you really want. And that extra money will drive the American economy!!! Except I'm not convinced that has happened. Trump been saying that for 40 years as well. I'll be happy if Trump puts an end to the garbage like Temu, Amazon, K-Mart, Target, Walmart.

Too many people have been left behind. Too much money has flown out to $5 buckets and $1 shirts and taken jobs away from people who would have had a mortgage, bought apple watches, and bus tickets.

When I worked in Canada ages ago the Canadian radios (I think TVs too) had to have a certain % of Canadian music and content played. That is a tariff and no one complains. Garbage Canadian music gets prioritised over better popular music. Maybe Trump could also put in these kind of conditions on shops. If car manufacturers have to have lineups with XXX carbon emissions or whatever - then maybe shops should have to have XX% of American made goods for sale or face hefty taxes.

I think Trump will make a heap of deals and tariffs will be reduced, but I also think he's got a heap more little economic surprises ready for the markets.

If it turns out 10 years down the road all his kids are trillionaires - then we know it was all just a game to manipulate the market

aren't adult children already wealthy in their own right ?

not sure they are billionaires , but should be in the high range millionare class ( well over 100 times my perssonal wealth )

should be educational times ( or maybe just moron entertainment ) but time will tell

and before you think i am joking i often used to wear a T-shirt under my normal shirt that had a dartboard on the back , because no matter what crap i dragged the night-shift out of , the previous night i was going to get blamed

solution i walked out at might niight when seven clear OH&S breaches were going to happen early in the morning

i could have rung the regulator , and they would have tried to call the Fire Warden ( who had left 5 years earlier ) but it was an amazing place to cultivate cynicism

 

[Boggo]

 

[divs4ever]

Anyone esle think another drop in the markets is comming soon?

... YES

i doubt this is short-covering , there was plenty of opportunity for that late yesterday ( profit-taking as well )

this is more likely buy the dip

and some nations will be still decidding their respnse to the tariffs

and i expect some to retaliate either with tit-for tat tariffs , pulling back on treasury buying , or restricting exports

will it be a 1929-style crash .. i don't know

 

[sptrawler]

... YES

i doubt this is short-covering , there was plenty of opportunity for that late yesterday ( profit-taking as well )

this is more likely buy the dip

and some nations will be still decidding their respnse to the tariffs

and i expect some to retaliate either with tit-for tat tariffs , pulling back on treasury buying , or restricting exports

will it be a 1929-style crash .. i don't know

I agree with you divs, I think this has a long way to play out.
IMO the U.S will want to strip China of its developing nation status and make them fully float their currency and that is probably only the first steps.
China won't be keen on doing either IMO.
is the U.S being a bully? Yes,
Will China become the bully within a few years, unless they are reigned in? Yes

 

[eskys]

BBOZ dropping away which suggests one thing for today, and our market is feeling more optimistic climbing slowly after a short lull about half an hour ago. (Not suggesting that this is not the end of a drop)

Japan is green, pre market green for now. Investors thinking there's ways around the tariff? He being a fickle, can be bought if buttered up the right way?

 

[DannyB0000]

Trump is threatening to raise tariffs on China by another 50%, if that happens China will definitely respond in kind against the Americans and match them, tit for tat. The EU might announce tariffs soon against the US as well. I can see Trump losing his temper and hiking US tariffs to 200% against China and the EU. Apple device like iPhones are about to get a lot more expensive in the US and Tim Cook must be getting really nervous now.

Dead cat bounce today and I'm betting things will get worse with stocks.

 

[eskys]

Trump is threatening to raise tariffs on China by another 50%, if that happens China will definitely respond in kind against the Americans and match them, tit for tat. The EU might announce tariffs soon against the US as well. I can see Trump losing his temper and hiking US tariffs to 200% against China and the EU. Apple device like iPhones are about to get a lot more expensive in the US and Tim Cook must be getting really nervous now.

Dead cat bounce today and I'm betting things will get worse with stocks.

Yes, a big possiblility. Depends on how others are going to retaliate, so pays to watch how things play out. You retaliate, I'm gonna hit you hard kind of response. So if the others have strategies, they're going to think a roundabout way to get where they want to be. Two hard heads aren't going to work. Will others start donning on their helmets and go head on? Hard to know.

 

[sptrawler]

Apple device like iPhones are about to get a lot more expensive in the US and Tim Cook must be getting really nervous now.

Dead cat bounce today and I'm betting things will get worse with stocks.

Unless Apple makes the iphones in the U.S.

Indonesia is doing a similar thing to Apple.

'Pent up' demand as Indonesia ban on iPhone 16 sales continues

Hardball tactics resulted in Apple pledging to invest $US1 billion in Indonesia, after the sales of iPhone 16 smartphones were banned for not having enough locally manufactured components.

www.abc.net.au

Authorities in Indonesia say a $US1 billion ($1.6 billion) pledge by US tech giant Apple to build an AirTag factory in the country is not enough for them to lift a ban on sales of the company's latest smartphone.

Indonesia requires that smartphones sold domestically contain at least 40 per cent locally manufactured components — a measure intended to support local jobs and industry.

 

[eskys]

Not changing the subject, but along the same lines, what are we as investors and traders plan to do in an event that these tariff kerfuffle will go ahead because no strategies or negotiations will work? Which sector or stocks will we invest in which are less likely to be impacted by tariffs, talk of lower interest rates, bonds, gold etc? Do we cash up and stay on the sidelines until everything is clearer to make a move? What will Americans do if their country goes to the dogs? Where will we be then, and where do we want to be?

 

[DannyB0000]

Not changing the subject, but along the same lines, what are we as investors and traders plan to do in an event that these tariff kerfuffle will go ahead because no strategies or negotiations will work? Which sector or stocks will we invest in which are less likely to be impacted by tariffs, talk of lower interest rates, bonds, gold etc? Do we cash up and stay on the sidelines until everything is clearer to make a move? What will Americans do if their country goes to the dogs? Where will we be then, and where do we want to be?

At the moment I'm holding 4 stocks, I bought RRL yesterday afternoon, I didn't dump any stocks yesterday. The money that I moved to cash in January will stay in term deposits. I think things will get worse so I prefer to keep it as dry powder. If stagflation becomes a problem in the US and the FED starts to hike interest rates again I will dump all 4 stocks and go 100% cash. If the Americans do get 70's style stagflation and interest rates have to go much higher that would be the worst case scenario for the US economy and the Stockmarket, armageddon without the nukes. Trump has been bankrupt 5 or 6 times and he only has yes people around him.

I'm just an average Joe, NOT an economist but that's my 2 bobs worth on this subject.

 

[Knobby22]

Not changing the subject, but along the same lines, what are we as investors and traders plan to do in an event that these tariff kerfuffle will go ahead because no strategies or negotiations will work? Which sector or stocks will we invest in which are less likely to be impacted by tariffs, talk of lower interest rates, bonds, gold etc? Do we cash up and stay on the sidelines until everything is clearer to make a move? What will Americans do if their country goes to the dogs? Where will we be then, and where do we want to be?

I am thinking high dividend shares that will be worth more as interest rates fall.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Not changing the subject, but along the same lines, what are we as investors and traders plan to do in an event that these tariff kerfuffle will go ahead because no strategies or negotiations will work? Which sector or stocks will we invest in which are less likely to be impacted by tariffs, talk of lower interest rates, bonds, gold etc? Do we cash up and stay on the sidelines until everything is clearer to make a move? What will Americans do if their country goes to the dogs? Where will we be then, and where do we want to be?

Good questions. We are very much in to a "what if and then where to until ..."situation. America could have taken some solace that over 60% of their economy was American produced to American consumed and that they were less dependent on outside countries. Trump's recent actions now show that there is a knock on effect to all his moves and that other nations can disrupt their economy greatly.

He has also not taken in to account services which provide huge export revenue.

No matter what happens this week the market will be volatile, down greatly, then a partial recovery, then further falls for the foreseeable future. Who can believe Trump? What "deals" made will last any longer than a week. Indonesia has had enough and is putting the screws on Apple. Who next ... Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia. Take your pick.

I've got a nice portfolio, cash and gold. I own my own house and my children and grandchildren are safe and well. I'm not putting a penny in to this market atm.

The people I feel sorry for are the homeless, renters, mortgage holders, those with debt and margin investors. People like Trump will cause havoc because they can. The dreadful thing is that he is a complete moron. Democracy is a pretty crap system but probably the best of a bad lot but it does turn up some wrong un's. Speaking of which, then there is Australia.

gg

 

[eskys]

At the moment I'm holding 4 stocks, I bought RRL yesterday afternoon, I didn't dump any stocks yesterday. The money that I moved to cash in January will stay in term deposits. I think things will get worse so I prefer to keep it as dry powder. If stagflation becomes a problem in the US and the FED starts to hike interest rates again I will dump all 4 stocks and go 100% cash. If the Americans do get 70's style stagflation and interest rates have to go much higher that would be the worst case scenario for the US economy and the Stockmarket, armageddon without the nukes. Trump has been bankrupt 5 or 6 times and he only has yes people around him.

I'm just an average Joe, NOT an economist but that's my 2 bobs worth on this subject.

We're all happy Larrys today including the Asian markets. Have noticed that the ASX 200 on Commsec has never matched the live index on investing.com. Have you worked out why? Is it because one is live, the other not? Strange that they don't match (even though I am watching the live screen on Commsec) have been trying to find out for years but never found the answer to my question. Anyone knows why?

I'm an overage Jo too, stabbing in the dark, Good luck Danny

 

[eskys]

Good questions. We are very much in to a "what if and then where to until ..."situation. America could have taken some solace that over 60% of their economy was American produced to American consumed and that they were less dependent on outside countries. Trump's recent actions now show that there is a knock on effect to all his moves and that other nations can disrupt their economy greatly.

He has also not taken in to account services which provide huge export revenue.

No matter what happens this week the market will be volatile, down greatly, then a partial recovery, then further falls for the foreseeable future. Who can believe Trump? What "deals" made will last any longer than a week. Indonesia has had enough and is putting the screws on Apple. Who next ... Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia. Take your pick.

I've got a nice portfolio, cash and gold. I own my own house and my children and grandchildren are safe and well. I'm not putting a penny in to this market atm.

The people I feel sorry for are the homeless, renters, mortgage holders, those with debt and margin investors. People like Trump will cause havoc because they can. The dreadful thing is that he is a complete moron. Democracy is a pretty crap system but probably the best of a bad lot but it does turn up some wrong un's. Speaking of which, then there is Australia.

gg

We can talk about Trump all we like, what does it tell you about the Citizens who voted for him??? What sort of life will they have from here on if this doesn't get resolved? The rich gets richer, the poor will get poorer. Amazing how they can't see it coming after having had the first hand experience (you know what I mean)

We can only take it one day at a time...ups and downs, and hopefully make a wise decision about our investment choices. Good luck, GG.