Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AAL - Alfabs Australia

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comment for FY25 challenge;

Trump is in office and with him brings an era of decreased climate reporting, and a longer acceptance of coal (in my opinion).

As mentioned in my Portfolio Blog, I expect this stock to out perform other neighboring companies due to it's specialized interest in the coal mining market (a market that we all know wont exist forever).

Further incentivizing hire over outright purchase.
 
Continues to rally to 0.445 at the time of writing.

A big run up in the lead to the quarterly. Tightly held and reasonable amount of volume each day.

Cant think of anything outside of quarterly and trump being a green signal for coal mining that is driving this rally?
 
Monthly Stock Pick;

I expect we will see continued inflows to Coal under the Trump presidency, and a bullish sentiment throughout his tenure.

Alfabs also has a unique fire retardant solution that is required in coal mines across NSW and QLD (I believe). Watching the quarterly that should come out in the pre-market on Monday. Excited to see what there financials look like and believe we could see further upside.

Cheers
 
BossMan. said:
Am I mistaken, or does this company not need to provide a quarterly?

Cheers
Bossmana
Click to expand...
Guess not. Probably fits requirement for minimal H1 and H2 reporting since it's a profitable company?

"Ongoing reportingFinancial reporting is required on a half-yearly and annual basis in Australia. Certain companies admitted under the assets test, and mining and oil and gas exploration companies, are also required to file quarterly activities reports and cash flow statements."

Listing requirements - ASX​

Australian Securities Exchange
https://www.asx.com.au › listings › listing-considerations
 
US 15% tariff on Coal, don’t think these ones will come off.

Makes Australian coal more competitive and I can only presume as a byproduct is good for Alfabs

If these tariffs stick till Monday next week, I’ll seriously consider I small parcel to increase this position.
 
It's your shout @BossMan.

Screenshot 2025-02-24 at 14.45.55.png
Screenshot 2025-02-24 at 14.46.21.png
 
Up to close to $0.50 a share now.

Sell side is non-existent hence the gap up, this could rocket even further if more sellers don’t step up soon.

This has been most of the story with Albans run up.
 
Founder Led & Controlled Company really gets me interested & no dilution as yet?

Up 3% Friday on low volume so May Not be easy to Buy, but will Consider throwing in an order next week to see what Happens?
 
@ShareSuccess I haven't done a deep dive, nor have I looked for a while, just scanned their annual report and there is a lot to unpack there. eg Revenue flat, but earnings up, due to big cost cuts and lower tax liability on higher profit?? FCF is strongly negative, debt to equity is high, (too high for me to look any further.) Paying dividends while burning cash at a ferocious rate, also dont understand why they borrowed so much the year after a capital raising via IPO.
 
galumay said:
@ShareSuccess I haven't done a deep dive, nor have I looked for a while, just scanned their annual report and there is a lot to unpack there. eg Revenue flat, but earnings up, due to big cost cuts and lower tax liability on higher profit?? FCF is strongly negative, debt to equity is high, (too high for me to look any further.) Paying dividends while burning cash at a ferocious rate, also dont understand why they borrowed so much the year after a capital raising via IPO.
Click to expand...
Thanks Galumay, you have given me some Food for Thought....cheers!
 
Have had a Bit of a look, Not a deep Dive, but a look at the financials.

Burning cash....Yes, but this could be looking to Growth & payment of Dividend?

DEBT: Overall increase 45-53%....not Great, but Seen worse

Short Term DEBT: Decreased 17-10 & simply transferred to Long Term Debt 8-24 so i look at This as a positive as it decreases the risk of debt By Transferring to LONG TERM.?

Revenue Growth 8%...Not Great, but for an Industrial okay?

NPAT & EPS Growth 59%....Positive

Margins have increased 4-12... Positive

ROE Increased 6-19....Positive

ROA Increased 4-10....Positive

CASH FLOW....Steady

Going deeper, but at this Stage i don't See a Lot of Negative, but would love The Thoughts of Others :)
 
Revenue was flat - up 1% (revenue actually dropped, "other income" increased to create the small increase in Overall revenue.)

So why did they pay a dividend, when debt increased and cash burn ferocious, poor capital allocation IMO.

The debt is an issue for me, just because its long term doesnt lessen the concern about the ratio to equity, and why on earth are they borrowing less than 12 months after an IPO that raised $30m??

Statutory NPAT was up biggly, but anomolies as I said with costs and taxes so not sure what to make of it. (especially as FCF is so strongly negative.)

The massive negative FCF is something that I havent unpacked, but its a real concern.

For me the debt means its not investible, the other concerns like lack of growth, negative FCF & opacity around NPAT may all be a function of the IPO and transition to listed company but its definitely a worry as the business has been around since the 1950's. It raises the question of what is the reason for the IPO? Is it an exit plan for the founding family to extract value that was otherwise locked up in a pretty poor business?
 
galumay said:
Revenue was flat - up 1% (revenue actually dropped, "other income" increased to create the small increase in Overall revenue.)

So why did they pay a dividend, when debt increased and cash burn ferocious, poor capital allocation IMO.

The debt is an issue for me, just because its long term doesnt lessen the concern about the ratio to equity, and why on earth are they borrowing less than 12 months after an IPO that raised $30m??

Statutory NPAT was up biggly, but anomolies as I said with costs and taxes so not sure what to make of it. (especially as FCF is so strongly negative.)

The massive negative FCF is something that I havent unpacked, but its a real concern.

For me the debt means its not investible, the other concerns like lack of growth, negative FCF & opacity around NPAT may all be a function of the IPO and transition to listed company but its definitely a worry as the business has been around since the 1950's. It raises the question of what is the reason for the IPO? Is it an exit plan for the founding family to extract value that was otherwise locked up in a pretty poor business?
Click to expand...

More Food For thought,thank you!....The Exit plan has been in the Back of my Mind, looking at all the Family Members within the Ownership makes some sense in regards to why they may have paid a Dividend to fill everyone's piggy bank ha ha

I think i will put the stock on watch for awhile & not rush to buy until i do a little Bit more research!

Cheers for the Feedback Galumay

Very Much Appreciated!:)
 

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