qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

No stop loss in my current system which is not something i like but i had various mostly negative results when i tested stop loss during initial backtests
But crashes do not happen daily, so the backtest figures are not that comforting..
Stop loss will be a must have in my next system

 

[peter2]

@qldfrog Thanks for posting your journey and thoughts so far. You have my full support and my best wishes for your future results.

There are only two ways to beat our benchmarks, gain more when the market rallies and lose less when the market falls. The easier of the two is to lose less when the market falls but it's just as important to re-invest when the market starts to rally.

Our market (ASX) is near yearly highs. Nobody knows what is going to happen next, but all the indications for a recession or a period of zero growth may become a self fulfilling outcome. Stick to your trading rules because you know they'll do the job you created them for.

As for a daily system. Good luck, you'll need lots of patience and research for this. The daily volatility seems to be much greater since the GFC and this makes trend following with reasonable stops difficult. The weekly charts seem so much smoother to me.

Stop losses. The're a buggar. Every SL method tests badly as you know. If you want to avoid the huge market draw downs (GFC -50%, great depression -90% and lots of -20% that happen regularly) you've got to employ a SL method.

 

[qldfrog]

Good week:+1.2 k but still lower than xao on that period
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $54,445.23
Current portfolio value $103,231.53
Profit $3,231.53
Nb of active positions 9
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 3.23%
Annual return so far 10.82%
purchase value per position 4980.217273
Invested percentage 47%

some action on Monday
Have all a great week end
note actually not that lower considering only 50% invested but still I could have made more putting 100k in an asx based eft

 

[qldfrog]

Quick question
I compare my system to the xao, but the xao would return some dividends
Is there a xao plus div index i could use for my comparison?

 

[Newt]

Hi QF

All Ords Accumulation index tracks all ords + dividends.
Might be worth watching the small ords too, depending your trading stock universe.

 

[qldfrog]

Ok.much Thanks

 

[willy1111]

Quick question
I compare my system to the xao, but the xao would return some dividends
Is there a xao plus div index i could use for my comparison?

If you are using Amibroker $XAOA.

 

[qldfrog]

today, my system sold WEB for a loss of $186, sold BRG for a gain of $485 and bought 1070 AGG (anglogold) @4.55 for a total cost of $4878.5
we only have 8 positions now, 3 in gold miners ...yeap

 

[qldfrog]

Good week:+1.7 k but still lower than xao on that period
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $59,864.21
Current portfolio value $104,946.49
Profit $4,946.49
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 4.95%
Annual return so far 15.56%
purchase value per position 5016.780833
Invested percentage 43%

some action on Monday
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

the missing graph

 

[qldfrog]

This morning purchased 861 NAN (nanosonics) @5.82 for a total cost inc brokerage of $5021.02
Sold the 2608 IFM @ $1.70 for a gain of $514
at the end of today:
8 active positions, portfolio value $105,295

 

[qldfrog]

so so week:-0.1k , still lower than xao on that period
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $59,266.79
Current portfolio value $104,806.38
Profit $4,806.38
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 4.81%
Annual return so far 14.26%
purchase value per position 4966.995833
Invested percentage 43%



no action on Monday
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

decent week:+0.9k , still lower than xao on that period again...
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $59,278.51
Current portfolio value $105,664.43
Profit $5,664.43
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 5.66%
Annual return so far 15.90%
purchase value per position 4967.9725
Invested percentage 44%



no action on Monday so will remain so under invested..but hey, this was not designed for a crazy bull run market
Have all a great week end

Report Bookmark

 

[qldfrog]

another week to forget:-0.4k , still lower than xaoa since start, I am now using xaoa as a comparison
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $59,278.51
Current portfolio value $105,293.16
Profit $5,293.16
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 5.29%
Annualised return so far 14.10%
purchase value per position 4967.9725
Invested percentage 43%


Still no action on Monday s
My system seems to tell me: stay in cash, maybe GG has it right!!!
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

A good week+1.4k , catching up on xaoa since start
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $59,278.51
Current portfolio value $106,673.20
Profit $6,673.20
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 6.67%
Annual return so far 16.91%
purchase value per position 4967.9725
Invested percentage 44%


And some action on Monday..buying at last
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

This morning: bought 1366 OCL at $3.57 for total cost inc brokerage of $4886.62
Nearly 50% invested..getting there SLLLLOOOOOWLY

 

[qldfrog]

Probably worth while trying a few variations in my filter compared to the same period

Being a newly retired is too busy but i need to
1) Do a thread about taxation difference income and CGT between country to prove with figure we are a bloody high taxation country
2) develop a new different system with faster ramp up to get better use of my capital
3) start new thread about
Moving to retirement before pension age
Challenges: finances social stress based obviously on my experience but also i hope others

This is a full time job, luckily, weekly systems are not to hard on my time

 

[willoneau]

hi qld frog,
Thanks for sharing your results.
If its okay with you do you think you could post your back test results here so we can gauge what to expect from your strategy.



My question to you and others trading systems is:
How do you know that your system is not working and when would you stop trading?
--I think part of this comes back to system design. The more confident you are with your back testing process the more confident you can be with your system but trading real world may not produce same outcomes either because (1) there was some problem with back testing (2) Your edge has eroded

hi jjbinks, as skate said in a post - back testing means jack, I agree totally and only use it to determine if I have positive expectancy and not to really look at returns. A robust strategy should be able to withstand the ebb and flow of the market over the long term, Nick Radge states many good systems can take up to 3 years to become 100% profitable depending on when they are started in the market cycle.

 

[willy1111]

1) Do a thread about taxation difference income and CGT between country to prove with figure we are a bloody high taxation country

I'd very much be interested in this.

In Oz if one is over preservation age and retired, doing share related activities inside a Super allocated pension is tax free.

I don't think you are of preservation age yet.

Recently I met a chap on my travels from New Zealand who said he invests in the Oz market and his Capital Gains are tax free but had to pay income tax on dividends. I haven't researched it so not sure of all the exact details.

It would also be intetesting if other countries apply certain rules to share related activities like in Oz, ie share trading business has different tax treatment to share investment.

 

[willoneau]

Hi willy1111,I traded for a sort period in my super fund and was profitable. The only down side was the lack of stocks to choose from and the max % allocation allowed to those stocks. In the end i gave up as many of my stock picks weren't allowed.

Also i run my trading as a business so capital gain isn't an issue.

PS, the profitability of my super at the time might have had more to do with the direction of the market at the time.