This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis


Wikipedia!! LOL

So Warrens doesn't have a say? LOLOLOLOL

 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

What on earth are you trying to say Wayne?

Buffet is an investor - there is no doubt about that. He is also a businessman of course - who isn't?

Quite simply he made his money buying undervalued companies, kept them forever, reducing tax cause he never sold - what on earth is there to disagree with??


that opinionated blurb you posted is irrelevant. What was your point?

What do you disagree with exactly?

1. Buffet is an investor
2. he likes to hold forever (thus compounding, and not paying tax)
3. he bought companies when the price was in a downturn.

They are 3 indisputable facts.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis


Oh God. I'm just not going to go over this yet again. If you want to hold on to some "undervalued" unrecognised sweetheart of a company, then do so.
I find it hard to care any more. My point, briefly, was that while you are waiting for the market to recognise the brilliance of this contender, you could have been actually making money somewhere else.

Julia
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis


It shows that anyone who thinks they are buffetologists are off with the pixies. Determining intrinsic value in a company, public or otherwise would require forensic accounting to cut through the garbage designed to decieve the plebs.

You *can't* invest like Buffett. Therefore the private investor must employ a host of other techniques to optimize his or her investment practices.

I strongly suggest your technique is suboptimal and that you are probably the least qualified on this board to comment on other techniques due to your religious adherence to a dogma promoted by those hitching a ride on the Buffett myth.

Your studious avoidance of pertinent points reveals a narrow mindedness that is breathtaking to behold.

Indeed you are also a troll and have alluded to that fact yourself. My strong advise to you is to desist in trolling activities forthwith. We do our best to avoid having an aggravated community here and you seem to be doing your darndest to p!ss everyone off. Fair Warning!
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

WayneL said:
Determining intrinsic value in a company, public or otherwise would require forensic accounting to cut through the garbage designed to decieve the plebs.

Thats a fairly paranoid attitude, almost implying that anyone running a public company deliberately provides misleading information in their annual accounts. There are obviously exceptions to the rule but on the whole many small and mid-cap company accounts are reasonably straightforward, unless I've been being duped for years.


wayneL said:
It shows that anyone who thinks they are buffetologists are off with the pixies.

For someone that claimed there wasn't criticism of a fundamental investment approach on this thread this post sounds like criticism to me. (unless being 'off with the pixies' is a good thing lol)

WayneL said:
You *can't* invest like Buffett. Therefore the private investor must employ a host of other techniques to optimize his or her investment practices.


A smaller investor can't buy a whole business (though in some small caps it doesn't take that much of an investment to appear on the top 20 shareholder list) but they can adopt investment strategies that are based on principles espoused by Graham and Buffet succesfully, which are based largely on treating a stock investment as a partial investment in a business and attempting to buy value when buying a partial business investment.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I'd like to make an attempt to bring this thread back to something that there is actually a point in discussing (rather than wasting time on circular arguments).

A while back, BSD posted a rather interesting question.

"Why dont the investment banks just hire a team of chartists with etrade accounts and margin loans?"

This has got me thinking. Why don't they run funds like this? Here are some of the reasons I can think of;

1. Chart trading requires the psychology to accept losing most of the time. Most people cannot handle this. Put an extra layer on top of this - the investment banking bureaucracy - and you have two layers or more of psychology to get through before being able to handle trading this way. I'd argue that the chances of this sort of culture existing in an investment bank are close to zero. To put this another way - I'd argue that few people in the investment bank industry know how to trade and rather rely on very deep pockets to survive at sub-index performance.

2. The people investing their money in this endeavour would need to be able to cope with drawdowns. The natural behaviour of most people is to put their money into outperforming funds and pull their money out of underperforming funds. This is exactly the wrong thing to do for trend following. This will lead to problems of having to close positions at the wrong time for a fund in order to cover withdrawals from the fund. In other words, there is a third psychological layer to get through.

3. One of the edges a private trader has over an investment bank is size. By and large traders can enter and exit positions without moving the market. This is impossible once you get above a certain size and would make it harder to be profitable as a large scale trend trader. I believe Soros has a word for this phenomenon, but it slips my mind at the moment.


I note with interest that in the US there are boutique funds that do indeed invest technically and even mechanically - I am unaware of any such funds in Australia.

Food for thought.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Whew!!! Thanks Cuttlefish, you've just stated the core of my (current) investment strategy.

One of the Buffet (though not Graham AFAIK) principles that's important to me is that I want to know the people who are running "my" company, so I'm staying with small companies where those people sometimes even answer their own phones. Not that I want to distract them from the details of "my" business, but I like to know that I could.

Dallee, if you're still there, I'm a beginner investor working with very small capital (about $10K). I'm also a late beginner; I'm well into my fifties and I have a healthy amount in super being managed by professionals. Your post sounded as though you're starting at a much more sensible age than I did, but the other side of that is that you might find your other commitments are less flexible than mine are and that they pick the worst possible times to interfere with your stockmarket education. Something to keep in mind when working out your approach.

Ghoti
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis


A just call here Wayne!
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Although its copped a fair bit of criticism in this thread, a fundamentals based approach will teach you a lot.

What will it teach a beginner? I`m interested in the content here.


Downside risk is ever present like a barking dog tied up next door wanting to rip your leg off whenever you walk past.

There ain`t nothing like the feeling of assurance.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis


Cheers
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

For those interested:

A blog on Buffett style investing

http://berkshireruminations.blogspot.com/


Enjoy
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

wayneL said:
Buffett doesn't actually espouse very much at all.

In his letters to Berkshire shareholders he does, these were summarised in a small book at some point (I read it a while ago, can't remember if it was 'annotated' by the author or not, but was mostly raw extracts from the Berkshire letters). As far as I know the Berkshire letters are the only writing Buffets done, its the only stuff by/about him that I've read.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Snake Pliskin said:
What will it teach a beginner? I`m interested in the content here.

It'll teach them to think about what it is they're actually buying when they buy a share, and think about why they are buying that share. It'll cause them to start to think and act independantly.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis


Sorry, I missed this question Nick. (Snake reminded me)

Well I'm guessing number 3 is the amount invested.

You may say the number of trades though?


I'd say you need to include both, but the amount is the key in my opinion.

1000 trades of $100 will get you nowhere, tax, brokerage and stress will kill you. But 1 trade of $1 Million with a 100% win is a great result obviously.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist,


The more important part is the number of trades. The first 2 attributes nick mentioned are used to calculate expectancy . From there, the number of trades determines how much you can make. For example, if you are evaluating 2 trading systems with the same expectancy, the amount the system trades will determine which should be more profitable overall.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Thanks Prof.

Definately in percentage terms the number of trades is important.

And I'd day it is easier to get many quick 20% wins, than it is to get one 200% win.

But in monetary terms one trade of $40,000 with a 20% return is worth 8 trades of $5,000 at 20% return. So amount and number of trades go hand in hand.

And that is where holding comes in:

$40,000 held for over 1 year with a 20% return = $5970 profit after tax and brokerage.

$5,000 traded 8 times quickly, all making 20% returns = $3920 profit after tax and brokerage.

That is why I say the more you trade the more you lose.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

$40,000 held for over 1 year with a 20% return = $5970 profit after tax and brokerage.

$5,000 traded 8 times quickly, all making 20% returns = $3920 profit after tax and brokerage.

Interesting example.

$3920 profit on $5000(which is min requirement for your trading example)= 78% return

$5970 profit on $40000 invested= 15% return.

Alternatively, if both have the same $40 000 bank, then the trader will have a lower return, but his risk is much lower- $5000 maximum loss vs $40 000.

That is why I say the more you trade the more you lose.

Not quite. If you are trading with positive expectency, then the more the system trades, the more you make.
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

professor_frink said:
Interesting example.

$3920 profit on $5000 (which is min requirement for your trading example)= 78% return

$5970 profit on $40000 invested= 15% return.

Good point!!

But you have $40,000 in total and only put $5,000 on each trade the return is only $3920 on $40,000. It all depends what you do with the other $35,000.

Prof, if you have $40,000 to your name - how much would you place on each trade?

If I had $40,000 - I'd invest between $20,000 and $30,000 in about 6 to 8 different shares. $10,000 sits in the bank - as a safety net and incase I see a great opportunity to buy.

My return would be about $10,000 * 0.05 from my bank account. And $30,000 * 0.12 from shares. So about $4000.

Say 10% after all taxes and expenses. (more in bull markets, less in bear markets)
 
Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Why is the trader not using the $40k eight times quickly? That's more the reality. I probably turnover my capital 7 times a year (more actual if you take account of leverage).

Yes I hate paying the interest and brokerage but it's still very profitable and "consistant"
 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...